Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Sunday
ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for October 30 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
What you need to know for Sunday’s games
Caris the Creator: The Cavaliers haven’t had All-Star point guard Darius Garland available since the opener due to an eye injury. With Garland expected to miss today’s matchup against the Knicks, it’s not hard to identify the key statistical beneficiary of his absence, as Caris LeVert (49% available) just delivered a 41-point opus against the Celtics on Friday. Even before breaking out in Boston, LeVert has been awesome as a distributor in averaging 6.4 dimes for Cleveland. Beyond his DFS and redraft value today, it’s notable that LeVert’s assist prop sits at 5.5 on DraftKings, a clip he’s surpassed in in four of five games this season.
Trey Day: The Pelicans are likely to be without Brandon Ingram for this afternoon’s tilt with the Clippers as he recovers in concussion protocol. With Ingram’s busy offensive profile off the floor, second-year wing Trey Murphy III (76% available in ESPN leagues) is due for a bigger offensive role. The sharpshooting wing has made a blistering 61.5% of his 3-point attempts this season, while also productive on the glass (6.2 RPG) and playing passing lanes (1.2 SPG). For the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard has again been ruled out due to a lingering knee issue, while Robert Covington is sidelined in health and safety protocols. Norman Powell (78% available) makes for a strong streaming candidate given he finally broke out of his shooting slump his last outing.
Sunday Streamers: With Devin Vassell expected to miss another game due to a knee ailment and Josh Primo having just been released, the Spurs already have some depth issues at the wing. If Josh Richardson (95% available) can play through a minor back issue, he’s in a good spot as a fantasy contributor against a Timberwolves tea, he just tallied a double-double against last week. Rookie Jeremy Sochan (98%) is another San Antonio wing to watch. Looking to the center position, Phoenix is expected to be without Deandre Ayton for at least a week due to an ankle injury. Enter Bismack Biyombo (99%), who just posted a double-double in just 23 minutes in relief of Ayton on Friday.
Block Party: The Orlando Magic have seen their backcourt decimated by injuries early this season, leaving them to lean into larger lineup looks. This includes big man Bol Bol (87% available) starting in a drubbing of the Hornets on Friday night. The gifted rim protector has produced multiple blocks in four of six appearances this season and is a real threat to deliver his first career double-double in today’s matchup with an undersized Dallas rotation.
Touting Tatum: You’re not reading this and unaware of how good Jayson Tatum is. He’s special, but you know that. This is more about the spot. Washington has allowed a player to score at least 25 points in every game this season (each of those players shooting over 55% from the field or attempting nine-plus free throws in that game). The Wizards are a top-option target in the prop market and in the futures market, how about a look at MVP for Tatum before you lose value (+900)? The numbers look great early and we know the wins will be there, so jumping in before he really has a chance to go off (November 7-13, a week of games only against bottom-10 defenses) might be a savvy play.
Pile On Pop?: You can never forecast overtime, so it’s noteworthy that, in their five games ending in regulation, the Timberwolves have seen four of five games go under the total. In San Antonio unders this season, the Spurs have out-scored opponents by a total of 18 points despite owning a cumulative spread of +22 in those games. This is the third time this week that these two teams are facing off: fade Gregg Popovich in a game of adjustments at your own risk.
Turning Negatives Into Positives: Let’s not beat around the bush: RJ Barrett‘s jump shot is currently broken. He has made just four of 28 attempts and even one of those makes comes with an asterisks as it was in the waning moments of a decisive win over the Magic on Monday. Gross. Having said that, his career 3P% is north of 35% and trusting that sample over a cold week-and-a-half makes sense. On the bright side, he is converting 64.5% of shots when at the rim this season (up from 59.6% last season). Cleveland has allowed the opposition shoot over 39% from 3-point land in the majority of their games thus far, so if you’re looking to buy the minor dip on Barrett in DFS contests or the prop markets, this might be a good spot to do so.
Money On The Mavs: Backing a team on a back-to-back is a scary suggestion, but when favored on 0 days rest last season, the Mavs were 5-2 ATS (they were just 1-4 ATS when not favored and on no rest). Dallas was home last night and doesn’t go on the road again until a week from Wednesday, so travel fatigue isn’t a viable excuse and given that we are so early in the season, the physical fatigue isn’t there yet.
— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Breaking down the slate
New Orleans Pelicans at L.A. Clippers
3:10 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: (-2.5)
Money line: Clippers (-145), Pelicans (+122)
Total: 224.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.6 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (52.0%)
Questionable: Kawhi Leonard, Herbert Jones (knee), Zion Williamson (hip)
Ruled out: Robert Covington (health and safety protocols), Kira Lewis Jr. (knee), Brandon Ingram (concussion),
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Jose Alvarado (available in 94.3% of leagues) has started the last two games with the Pelicans dealing with injury. He has responded with solid, streamable averages of 13.5 PPG (50 FG%, 100 FT%), 3.0 APG, 2.5 3PG, 2.0 RPG and 1.5 SPG in 27.5 MPG. — André Snellings
Best bet: Pelicans +2.5. The Pelicans and Clippers are both dealing with injuries to major players, but the Pelicans have played better than expected in this circumstance with an upset win over the Mavericks and a competitive loss at Phoenix while the Clippers have struggled to consecutive losses to the Thunder. I look for the Pelicans to continue to utilize their depth to play well, and if Zion Williamson is able to go it’d be an even bigger boost for them. — Snellings
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
6:10 p.m. ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland
Line: Cavaliers (-4.5)
Money line: Cavaliers (-190), Knicks (+158)
Total: 222.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 223.6 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (68.7%)
Ruled out: Quentin Grimes (foot), Darius Garland (eye)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Donovan Mitchell over 27.5 points. Mitchell has been incredible all season. With Garland out, Mitchell has a usage rate of 37.9%. He’s averaging a whopping 31.0 PPG. Mitchell is also shooting nearly 48% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc, both of which are a career-high pace. — Eric Moody
Fantasy streamer: Immanuel Quickley (available in 96.4% of leagues) has stepped into the instant offense/sixth man role for the Knicks, and has had impressive stretches as both a scorer and a distributor. He has scored in double-digits in three of the last four games, and also has at least seven assists and six rebounds in two of the last four games. — Snellings
Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 5.5 assists. Brunson is set to bounce back after his worst game of the season. Jrue Holiday and Javon Carter gave him fits on Friday, leading to a season-low three assists on the night. That was the only game this season in which Brunson dished fewer than six assists, and on Sunday he should return to the 8.5 APG pace he was on before Friday. — Snellings
Golden State Warriors at Detroit Pistons
6:10 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
Line: Warriors (-8)
Money line: Warriors (-345), Pistons (+270)
Total: 230 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.5 points
BPI Win%: Warriors (67.7%)
Questionable: Jordan Poole (ankle)
Ruled out: Andre Iguodala (hip), Alec Burks (foot)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Moses Moody (available in 99.2% of leagues) is a sneaky play for today, particularly in DFS leagues where he should be a min-priced option. Jordan Poole intends to play today, but he tweaked his ankle late in overtime yesterday and could be limited. Klay Thompson has been easing into the season on a minutes restriction, and he’s on the second half of his first back-to-back of the season while simultaneously coming off a season-high 32 minutes on Saturday. And Donte DiVincenzo (hamstring) is still out, which could all combine for a larger than usual role for Moody, who has played well in limited minutes to the tune of 9.0 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 2.0 3PG and 1.0 BPG in only 18.3 MPG over his last three. — Snellings
Best bet: Cade Cunningham over 20.5 points. Cunningham started the season relatively slowly from a scoring standpoint, but in his last four outings he’s averaged 25.5 PPG while going over 20.5 points in three of four. He’s coming off his biggest game of the season, scoring 35 points against the Hawks, and will be facing a Warriors defense that just played an overtime game yesterday and has some older and/or hurt legs that will have to bounce-back quickly. — Snellings
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics
6:10 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Line: Celtics (-8.5)
Money line: Celtics (-365), Wizards (+285)
Total: 225 points
BPI Projected Total: 231.5 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (76.1%)
Questionable: Malcolm Brogdon (back)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs
7:10 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Line: Timberwolves (-5.5)
Money line: Timberwolves (-225), Spurs (+185)
Total: 235.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 239.9 points
BPI Win%: Timberwolves (65.7%)
Questionable: Jordan McLaughlin (heel), Kyle Anderson (back), Josh Richardson (back)
Ruled out: Devin Vassell (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Over 235.5. As both teams play at a blistering pace, this game could be high scoring. The Timberwolves rank 18th in points scored per 100 possessions, while the Spurs rank 12th. Since San Antonio has been a liability on defense so far this season, Minnesota shouldn’t have trouble scoring in this matchup. The Spurs rank 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions played. Take the over. — Moody
Orlando Magic at Dallas Mavericks
7:40 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Line: Mavericks (-9.5)
Money line: Mavericks (-480), Magic (+360)
Total: 217 points
BPI Projected Total: 226.4 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (87.2%)
Ruled out: Moritz Wagner (foot), Jalen Suggs (ankle), Cole Anthony (oblique), Markelle Fultz (toe), Davis Bertans (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns
9:10 p.m. ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix
Line: Suns (-12)
Money line: Suns (-800), Rockets (+550)
Total: 228.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 238.3 points
BPI Win%: Suns (86.3%)
Questionable: Jabari Smith Jr. (ankle)
Ruled out: Deandre Ayton (ankle)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
9:40 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Line: Nuggets (-3.5)
Money line: Nuggets (-170), Lakers (+143)
Total: 220.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.8 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (66.2%)
Questionable: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ankle), Juan Toscano-Anderson (ankle), Anthony Davis (back)
Probable: LeBron James (foot)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Nikola Jokic over 38.5 points+rebounds. Due to their lack of size in the Lakers’ backcourt, opponents are outrebounding them on a nightly basis. Jokic is going to have a field day with Anthony Davis not 100%. Jokic has reached or exceeded 38 points+rebounds in four of his last five games against the Lakers. — Moody
Analytics Edge
BPI’s highest projected totals
1. Phoenix Suns (125.4 points)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (122.1 points)
3. Dallas Mavericks (119.4 points)
BPI’s lowest projected totals
1. Orlando Magic (107.0 points)
2. Washington Wizards (107.3 points)
3. New York Knicks (109.2 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Dallas Mavericks (87.2%)
2. Phoenix Suns (86.3%)
3. Boston Celtics (76.1%)
