NFL best bets for Week 15 (Joe Burrow keeps covering, sell high on Lions)

December 16, 2022 ndowd

There are only a few more weeks of the regular season left in the NFL, and the BetSided team is looking to build on its season-long record in NFL best bets, which currently sits at 29-26-2.

This week, two of our editors are on opposite sides in the Dallas Cowboys-Jacksonville Jaguars matchup, and one of them has a play on a crazy trend with Joe Burrow.

Here’s every pick for Week 15 of the 2022 season:

NFL Best Bets for Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
New York Jets -1 vs. Detroit Lions
Dallas Cowboys -4 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jacksonville Jaguars +4.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys

Conventional wisdom would have you believe that because the Dallas Cowboys are coming off a bad week at home; barely coming back to defeat the lowly Houston Texans 27-23, they should be in a good spot this week vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.

I’m not buying into that at all.

Jacksonville has been playing very well of late, perhaps even on the cusp of making things a little interesting in the AFC South division; sitting just two games back of a Tennessee TItans squad that’s lost three straight and dealing with major regression.

Trevor Lawrence has been on fire, putting himself in a spot that rivaled what 2019 MVP winner Lamar Jackson accomplished over the last five games.

Trevor Lawrence is the 2nd-youngest player (23) in NFL history with 10 Pass TD and 0 Int in 5-game span.

Lamar Jackson did this at 22 in 2019 when he won unanimous MVP#Jaguars

— Doug Clawson (@doug_clawson) December 14, 2022

Dallas could easily overlook this game in Jacksonville for the week ahead when they host the Philadelphia Eagles with the potential for the NFC East division on the line. With most books currently at four, I like the 4.5 quite a bit in this spot. – Ben Heisler

New York Jets -1 vs. Detroit Lions

This is a game between arguably the best defense in the NFL, against arguably the worst.

If we just look at basics, the Jets are 2nd in the NFL in opponent yards per carry, the Lions are dead last. The Jets allow 1.4 fewer yards per play than the Lions.

When it comes to third down defense, the Jets are 14th, the Lions are 31st. Red zone defense has the ranking Jets 20th, the Lions 30th.

Sure, you might think the Lions offense is way better than the Jets, but they’re both averaging the same yards per play, 5.8 over their last three games.

Obviously, as a whole, the Lions offense has been much more successful and are better in areas like third down and in the red zone, but the gap between the two team’s offenses is much closer than the gap between the two defenses.

I’ll back the Jets here. It’s time to sell high on the Lions a bit after the run that they’re on. – Iain MacMillan

Dallas Cowboys -4 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Outside of their first win against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Cowboys have won each of their games by at least four points. They are third in points per game and opponent points per game, while also being top five in yards allowed. Dallas’ defense is one of the main reasons the Cowboys are contenders in the NFC, and it should show up against a Jaguars team that is just 15th in points per game.

The strength of Jacksonville’s offense is the ground game, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Dallas has improved in that area, jumping up to 18th in the league in opponent yards per carry. As for the passing game, Jacksonville is 15th in yards per pass while the Cowboys are fourth in opponent yards per pass.

Across the board, Dallas has the advantage. The Jaguars are inconsistent and haven’t covered in a loss this season. Therefore, I’m taking the Cowboys on the spread. – Donnavan Smoot

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

There hasn’t been anyone better than Joe Burrow at covering the spread over the last 20 games, and the Cincinnati Bengals have a favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15.

Joe Burrow is now 17-3 ATS in his last 20 starts.

— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) December 11, 2022

Tampa Bay has been brutal against over .500 teams this season, and it was just blown out by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 14.

Cincy is one of the best teams in the NFL in yards per play, and the team needs to keep winning to keep a chance to win the AFC North and the AFC itself alive.

I’ll lay the 3.5 with Burrow and company on the road. – Peter Dewey

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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