Dolphins must buck major history to beat Bills in cold

The Miami Dolphins aren’t only facing the Buffalo Bills on Saturday night. They’ll also be facing harsh elements and some serious history.

Nobody from Miami wants to see snow or jackets. The Dolphins are no exception.

For the Miami Dolphins, Saturday night will have them seeing plenty when they visit the Buffalo Bills. The weather forecast is calling for snow and 26 degrees, putting the chill into Miami’s warm-weather bones.

The game is of enormous proportions for the Dolphins. After starting 8-3, Miami went on a California two-step and was easily handled by the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers. Now, the finishing leg of the three-game road trip brings Tua Tagovailoa and Co. to Buffalo, where the Dolphins haven’t won since 2016.

While Miami hasn’t enjoyed recent success in western New York, late-season trips to Buffalo have long been a horror show. Since 1990, the Dolphins are 5-11 in either December or January against the Bills (incl. playoffs), with three defeats comes since the ’17 season.

For Tagovailoa, cold weather has consistently been a bugaboo. The former first-round pick has never won when the game-time temperature has been below 50 degrees, sporting an 0-3 record.

Considering the snow and wind, however, Tagovailoa might not be then main character in Saturday’s drama. That distinction could fall to the duo of Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, who will need to find running room against a waiting Buffalo front.

Cold weather could bring rude awakening for Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa

After allowing 176.3 rushing yards per game between Weeks 8-10, the Bills have tightened considerably as the health of linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds has improved. Since Week 11, Buffalo is only permitting 78 yards per game on the ground.

Yet if Miami can’t run effectively, Tagovailoa will need to utilize his speedsters on the perimeter. Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have an advantage in the elements, using their acceleration out of breaks to cause problems for the corners trying to keep pace. Tagovailoa has to be anticipatory and accurate, especially when tracking the ball and gripping it will be more difficult than normal.

Conversely, Miami’s defense needs to be disruptive for Bills star quarterback Josh Allen. In their Week 3 matchup — which the Dolphins won, 21-19 — Allen threw an absurd 63 times for 400 yards, but was sacked four times. And while Buffalo out-gained Miami 497-212 in total yardage that afternoon, the Dolphins capitalized on enough mistakes to win.

For Miami to sweep the season series, it’ll need the defense to win up front with the newly-acquired Bradley Chubb winning off the edge, while Jaelan Phillips and Melvin Ingram provide additional pass rush. On the back end, the Dolphins will likely match up corner Xavien Howard with Bills receiver Stefon Diggs, hoping to eliminate one of the league’s premier pass-catchers.

While all the above are keys for Miami, one of the largest will be the mental hurdle of the elements. Head coach Mike McDaniel can wear fun t-shirts all he wants, but for a team which hasn’t played in cold weather all season, the added adversity is both notable and unpredictable in its impact.

If the Dolphins are going to win, they’ll need to do more than embrace the elements.

They’ll need to overcome them.