Net yards per play report: Dolphins remain elite despite losses

If you want to evaluate how good an NFL team is, you have to look past just their record.

Teams can lose games in which they largely outperform the other team and they can certainly win games they don’t deserve to.

A good starting point when diving deeper into evaluating teams, whether for curiosity or for betting purposes, is NFL net yards per play.

When you take the average amount of yards gained per play on offense and then subtract the amount of yards given up per play on defense, the number you’re left with is net yards per play.

Sure, it doesn’t take into account things like third down conversion rate, red zone efficiency, or turnovers, but it does give you a general view of how well a team moves the ball down the field while preventing their opponents from doing the same.

Let’s take a look at the latest net yards per play standings at the conclusion of Week 15 of the NFL season.

Dolphins continue to be elite

If you’re thinking about selling your stock on the Dolphins, I’d recommend holding off. They have lost three straight games, but they’re still proving to be an elite squad.

In fact, they’re third in the NFL in net yards per play over this three game stumble at +0.8. They’ve had bad luck with their scheduling, having to face two of the best teams in the NFL in the 49ers and the Bills, as well as a surging team in the Chargers.

Now, they get to finish the season against the Packers, Patriots, and Jets, a much easier stretch of games. It’s time to buy low on the Dolphins after recent losses.

They’re 5.5-point home favorites to the Packers in Week 16.

49ers thrive on the road, struggle at home

The San Francisco 49ers are a curious case this season. They’re by far the best road team in the NFL, sporting a net yards per play of +1.8 in road games. That’s +0.2 better than the next best team and +0.7 better than the third ranked road team.

Meanwhile, they haven’t been themselves when playing at home, ranking 11th in home net yards per play at +0.4. These numbers would be contrary to their record. They’re 6-1 at home this season but 4-3 on the road.

Do you want to trust the statistics or the records? You’ll have to put your faith on the line this week when they host the Washington Commanders as 7-point favorites.

You can track Iain’s bets on Betstamp here.

—

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.