NFL Week 16 betting trends and odds for every team, every game

 

Week 16 settles in with what feels like a bizarro world NFL schedule, as 11 NFL games are set to take place on Christmas Eve Saturday, followed by a triple-header on NFL Sunday with just three standalone games.

Highlighting Saturday’s action is the main event in the late afternoon, as the Philadelphia Eagles head into Dallas to face the Cowboys without their MVP-candidate in quarterback Jalen Hurts as he’s officially been ruled out with a shoulder injury.

Without Hurts in the lineup, the line has moved from the Cowboys as a 1.5-point favorite at the start of the week, to as high as 6.5-points at some books. The line has now shifted back to anywhere between +4 and +4.5 for the Eagles, as Gardner Minshew gets the start.

Both the Cowboys and Eagles are 8-6 ATS this season, however, there’s a clear discrepancy between both teams when it comes to their home and road splits this season. Philadelphia is just 2-5 against the spread (ATS) away from Lincoln Financial Field, and play their third consecutive matchup away from home. The Cowboys are 5-3 ATS at home, and 7-1 straight up (SU) at AT&T Stadium.

Furthermore, via Evan Abrams of TAN, the Eagles are just the 13th team in December or later to be an underdog with a winning percentage of over 90%. The last 12 teams in a similar situation are just 2-10 SU.

Throughout the article are what I believe to be the most noteworthy NFL betting trends for each and every NFL team in Week 16, highlighting key areas to know before placing a wager.

For betting previews and picks on every Week 16 game this Saturday, Sunday and Monday night, check out the BetSided NFL Expert Picks and Predictions page for even more analysis, props, best bets and more.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24 – CHRISTMAS EVE EARLY AFTERNOON SLATE

Buffalo Bills vs. Chicago Bears Betting Trends and Odds

Bills:

Buffalo doesn’t mess around when it comes to taking care of business vs. bad teams. Over their last 16 games, the Bills are 11-3-2 ATS vs. teams with losing records. Furthermore, their defense shows up even more on the road, going 7-0 to the under in their last seven games away from home.

Bears:

When Justin Fields plays, overs continue to hit for the Bears. Chicago is 7-1 to the OVER in their last eight games, with the one UNDER taking place in Week 15 at home vs. the Eagles. Additionally, via Evan Abrams, the Bears have been the least profitable moneyline underdog in the NFL the past two years.

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Trends and Odds

Lions:

The Lions have the hottest covering streak in the NFL, winning seven consecutive games ATS and enter with a 10-4 ATS record. They also have not lost to a team below .500 this season, despite only being 7-7 SU this year.

Panthers:

Before last week’s loss at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Panthers had covered the spread in four consecutive games and six of their last seven matchups. However, recent trends indicate they could continue to struggle again today, going 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games at home, as well as 4-10 in their last 14 following a loss (via Covers).

New Orleans Saints vs. Cleveland Browns Betting Trends and Odds

Saints:

If the current total of New Orleans closes below 32 points, it would end up as the lowest closing over/under since 2008 in the NFL.
New Orleans has been an UNDER team their last several matchups, going 6-1 to the UNDER in their last seven. With this week’s forecast in Cleveland calling for 25-30 mph winds and potential gusts of 40-50 mph, they could be well on their way to going 7-1 in their last eight.

Browns:

The Browns are just 12-20 ATS in the last four years at home, but have gone 4-3 ATS at home in 2022. They’ve also been terrific in the first quarter, going 10-4 ATS this year.

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans Betting Trends and Odds

Texans:

After losing seven consecutive games by seven points or more, the Texans have covered in two straight games against two of the best teams in the NFL at Dallas and vs. Kansas City. Also, via Evan Abrams, teams that face the Chiefs in their previous matchup have gone 10-3 SU in their following game. The line has moved all the way from Tennessee as an 8-point favorite down to 3.5.

Titans:

After covering in eight straight games from Weeks 3-10, Tennessee has failed to cover the spread in four straight games, also going 0-4 SU in those matchups.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends and Odds

Seahawks:

Seattle has failed to cover in five consecutive games, and via Evan Abrams, head coach Pete Carroll has lost six consecutive games when they have the rest advantage.

Chiefs:

The Chiefs have hit the under in four consecutive home games, and have been amongst the worst covering teams in the NFL this year. The Chiefs are 11-3 SU, but only 4-9-1 ATS and just 1-4-1 ATS at home.

New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings Betting Trends and Odds

Giants:

New York is 10-4-0 ATS this season, and Daniel Jones looks to continue to remarkable road splits ATS; covering in 16 of his 23 career road games. The Giants have also gone UNDER in 33 of their 47 games since 2020.

Vikings:

In one score games this season, the Vikings are a perfect 10-0 straight up. Also, Minnesota has won 13 consecutive games as a favorite, with their last defeat coming on December 5 of 2021 vs. Detroit.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends and Odds

Bengals:

Cincinnati continues to be one of the best bets in the NFL; leading the league with a 78.6% cover percentage and 11-3-0 record ATS.

Patriots:

New England has gone 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four games after a loss, and unders in December have hit at an 80% clip for the Pats; going 8-2 in their last 10 games.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Trends and Odds

Falcons:

After beginning the season 6-0 ATS, the Falcons are just 2-6 ATS over their last eight games.

Ravens:

The Ravens are just 1-3 ATS following a loss this year, and have not covered the spread as a home favorite in five games.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24 – CHRISTMAS EVE LATE AFTERNOON SLATE

Washington Commanders vs. San Francisco 49ers Betting Trends and Odds

Commanders:

After beginning the season 1-4 ATS, the Commanders up until their last two games against the Giants had gone 6-1 ATS. Washington is also 10-1 to the under in their last 11 games after an ATS loss (via Covers).

49ers:

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends and Odds

Eagles:

Gardner Minshew is 10-12 ATS over his career, but just 5-11 as an underdog including seven straight losses. Philly, via Evan Abrams, has also been the least profitable team to bet on the road since 2020; going just 8-17 ATS.

Cowboys:

Dallas has bounced back after straight up losses this year (and in 2021); going 5-0 ATS following a loss, and 6-1 ATS over their last seven games after an ATS loss.

The OVER has also hit in their last four games in December and four games at home (via Covers).

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 24 – CHRISTMAS EVE SATURDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Trends and Odds

Raiders:

When the weather outside is frightful, Derek Carr’s numbers with the Raiders has not been delightful. The Las Vegas signal-caller is 0-6 in game temperatures 38 degrees or below, and has not thrown for more than a single touchdown or scored 20 points in any of those six matchups. (via Scott Kascmar)

Steelers:

Mike Tomlin, despite coaching for the Steelers since 2007, has only played in six home primetime games as a favorite of 3-points or less. In those games, he’s gone 4-2-0 ATS, winning by an average margin of 5.25 points (via BetLabs)

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 25 – CHRISTMAS DAY SLATE

Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Trends and Odds

Packers:

Aaron Rodgers has only been an underdog 48 times in his career. According to BetLabs, Rodgers is 6-1-0 ATS as a home dog in his career, but just 20-20-1 ATS on the road, 3-3-0 ATS in December, and 6-10-1 ATS in the second half of the season.

Dolphins:

The Dolphins going all the way back to last year, are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games at home vs. teams with a losing record on the road (via Covers). They’re also 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games at home.

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Rams Betting Trends and Odds

Broncos:

Denver continues to be the best under bet in the NFL, going 11-3-0 to the UNDER this season. However, in their last two games, the OVER has hit, and currently sits at its lowest projected number of the year vs. the Rams in Week 16.

Rams:

Recent history favors the underdog (L.A.) in this particular matchup, with the underdog 6-0 ATS in their last six games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals Betting Trends and Odds

Buccaneers:

The Bucs continue to own the worst record in the NFL ATS at 3-10-1 on the year. Tom Brady has also been terrible ATS in night games since heading to Tampa Bay; going just 2-12 ATS in prime time matchups.

Cardinals:

Kliff Kingsbury as an underdog = good (23-14-2 ATS) . Kliff Kingsbury at home = bad (12-19-0 ATS).

Kliff Kingsbury as a home underdog, middle of the pack: 7-7-0 ATS.

Kliff Kingsbury in December or later: 3-9-0 ATS following a loss.

MONDAY, DECEMBER 26 – MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Trends and Odds

Chargers:

Justin Herbert is just 13-15-1 ATS as a favorite, but as a road favorite he’s 13-9-0 ATS, compared to just 11-2-1 ATS at home. L.A. also is tied for the second-most wins on the road this season with five, trailing only the 6-win Cincinnati Bengals.

Colts:

The Colts have allowed 93 points in their last two games, including 55 in the 4th quarter alone!

They’re 1-1 ATS in those games and still 3-2 ATS with Jeff Saturday as head coach.

Follow all of Ben’s betting plays in real-time HERE!

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.