How much would the Saints get in a trade if Sean Payton decided to return?

It sure sounds like Sean Payton is going to return to coaching in 2023, but if he does the New Orleans Saints won’t let it happen empty-handed. 

It’s unclear exactly what will happen when Sean Payton inevitably returns to coaching in 2023, which seems to be trending closer and closer to a sure thing.

Payton is already assembling a staff to take with him wherever he’s hired, with Adam Schefter reporting that Vic Fangio has already been earmarked to be his defensive coordinator. Beyond the recent news, rumors about where he might land have been swirling for months.

But what happens when he returns?

Payton retired from the Saints job, he wasn’t fired. That means New Orleans can get something in return from the team that hires its former head coach in the form of a trade. Perhaps the most famous example of a coach being traded was back in 2002 when Oakland traded Jon Gruden to Tampa Bay — something that resulted in a Super Bowl for the latter.

There have also been recent examples of trades or near-trades involving head coaches switching teams without a firing playing a role.

Sean Payton trade rumors: What would be fair return for Saints?

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell laid out a few of those recent incidents, while also highlighting what might be a realistic return for Saints fans to expect upon Payton’s unretiring.

A first-round pick seems like pretty fair value for what Payton will likely do for his next team. Rumors have swirled about Payton taking over in Los Angeles and taking Justin Herbert to the next level. Other potential fits include Indianapolis, Denver, and Arizona — all teams with huge upside for someone like Payton.

A significant plus-odds option could be the Buccaneers, who have a great defense and a guy Payton reportedly wanted to coach in 2022 at quarterback (although Tom Brady is a free agent in 2023 and could follow Payton to Indy or Arizona).

No matter where he goes, the Saints would be wise to have a steep sticker price on Payton. New Orleans is going backward, and Payton doing what he could do for the Saints but for someone else is something that deserves compensation.

While the prospect of Payton returning and the Saints getting a first-round pick for him seems great, it doesn’t mean it will happen. Barnwell points out that when Bruce Arians unretired — ironically to take a job with the Buccaneers — Arizona only received a late-round pick for him.

That being said, the Saints control the board. There’s a scenario where they go the Arians route and let him go where he wants without playing hardball as a way of thanking him for all he did for the franchise. But the NFL is a business, and the Saints are a team in dire straights heading into an uncertain future. New Orleans has no franchise quarterback, no real room to navigate free agency, and no first-round pick to leverage in any way for the future.

Where the Saints could let Payton walk for little return as a sign of good faith, Payton’s parting gift to the franchise that will one day put him in Canton could be to give them