We are entering the penultimate week of the NFL regular season, which means we have a ton of data to use to evaluate each team.
One of my favorite statistics, as you likely know, is net yards per play. It takes the average amount of yards per play gained on offense and subtracts the amount of yards given up per play on defense. What you’re left over with is net yards per play.
It doesn’t take things into account like third down conversion rate, red zone efficiency, or turnovers, but it does give you a general idea of how well a team moves the ball down the field while preventing their opponent from doing the same.
Let’s take a look at the net yards per play report heading into Week 17:
Updated NFL Net Yards per Play standings after Week 16:
-Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, 49ers in a class of their own.
When Jimmy Garoppolo went down with an injury just a few short weeks ago, many people thought the 49ers chances to win the Super Bowl were shot. In comes Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy, and San Francisco now looks better than ever.
Over their last three games, the 49ers lead the NFL in net yards per play at +2.2, which is +0.3 better than the next best team over that stretch.
What makes it even more impressive is that those three wins came against two playoff teams and a team, the Seahawks, that are on the postseason bubble.
Still, reports indicate that Jimmy G could return as the starter once he’s back from injury, but is it the right move for them to make? Time will tell.
They’re 5.5-point favorites to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17.
San Francisco 49ers @ Las Vegas Raiders | Current Best Odds
Packers recent record defies statistics
The Green Bay Packers have won three straight games and are largely in control of their own destiny. If they win their final two games and the Washington Commanders lose one, or the Giants lose two, the Packers will be in the postseason after looking like they had no shot just a few weeks ago.
What’s strange about it is that during their three game win streak, they rank dead last in the NFL in net yards per play at -1.7. How could this be the case?
The main reason for it has been turnovers. During that stretch they have an average turnover margin of +1.7. You can make up for a lot of issues if you don’t turn over the ball and force your opponent to cough it up.
They’re 3-point home favorites to the Vikings this upcoming Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers | Current Best Odds
