NFL upset picks for Week 17 (Don’t overreact to Tua news, Panthers can steal NFC South from Bucs)

We’re in the final two weeks of the NFL season and there are plenty of pivotal matchups set to go down as team attempt to lock up the final available spots in the postseason.

As always, the BetSided team is here to give out a few upset picks in spots where we think the underdog can win outright.

Heading into Week 17 of the season, our upset picks sit at 34-39 (+13.52 units).

Let’s dive into our upset picks for the penultimate week of the season and see if we can build on our profit.

Best NFL Upset Picks for Week 16 of 2022 Season

Carolina Panthers (+140) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Buccaneers

On Tuesday’s episode of Daily Betslip, I told BetSided’s Iain MacMillan that I couldn’t believe the red-hot Carolina Panthers were +310 to win the NFC South heading into this week’s matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Essentially, all they have to do is beat one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2022 and they’re in the driver’s seat for the final week of the season.

While the futures market is heavy on Tampa, the Week 17 odds are not, moving Tampa Bay from -3.5 up to a standard 3-point favorite at home.This is not a good Bucs team regardless of the talent. They rank second-worst in the league in points/play, 25th in yards/play, and have scored the fourth-fewest offensive touchdowns in the league.

They also rank dead-last in nearly every rushing metric available.

The Panthers may only be 5-5 since Steve Wilks took over, but when you consider he’s already matched Matt Rhule’s win totals in only 10 games, this is a completely different team that’s bought in.Sure, Tom Brady has saved them a few times late in games, but with the Panthers on the verge of a remarkable mid-season turnaround, Brady won’t be so lucky this time. – Ben Heisler

Miami Dolphins (+136) at New England Patriots

Is there much of a drop off from Tua Tagovailoa to Teddy Bridgewater? I don’t believe so.

The Patriots seem to have a defined ceiling, they can beat middling to poor competition but can’t beat the better teams in the league. New England has not beat a single team over .500 this season, which Miami is.

Yes, the Dolphins appear to be in a free fall with four straight losses, but the team has lost to three capable teams in the 49ers, Chargers, Bills and Packers. Bridgewater is capable of running this offense as well as Tagovailoa has this season and I think this is an overreaction to Miami’s recent stretch. – Reed Wallach

Indianapolis Colts (+188) at New York Giants

Sure, the Giants are a playoff team and the Colts are a disaster, but if you look at the statistics behind both teams, this matchup is closer than you might expect.

One thing we can say for sure is the Colts defense will be the best unit on the field on Sunday. If we’re being honest, at least from a stats perspective, the Colts offense stinks, but so does both the Giants offense and defense.

The Indianapolis defense ranks eighth in opponent yards per play, while the Giants defense ranks all the way down at 28th in that metric.

Let’s also remember that the Giants have the worst run defense in the NFL, ranking 28th in opponent yards per carry, so the Colts should enjoy an easy game riding the back of Zack Moss.

At +188, I think the Colts are worth a bet in this spot.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.