League insiders split on Lamar Jackson’s future with Ravens

While the Baltimore Ravens are fighting for playoff positioning, the continued absence of Lamar Jackson is adding to a looming powder keg in Charm City.

The NFL is a nuanced beast. Just ask Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.

Standard logic would say the Ravens should give Jackson almost whatever he wants. Jackson, 25, is an elite player at the sport’s paramount position. He’s been a unanimous MVP, won two division titles and is the most popular player in Baltimore football since Ray Lewis.

Yet the NFL doesn’t work off standard logic, it works off projections and salary caps. And for the Ravens and their star quarterback, that’s a problem.

Last offseason, Baltimore reportedly offered Jackson a five-year, $250 million deal with $133 million guaranteed. Jackson declined the contract. Of course, this comes with the background of Deshaun Watson getting a record-setting five years and $230 million guaranteed by the Cleveland Browns despite dozens of sexual assault allegations.

One high-powered agent FanSided spoke with agrees with Jackson’s position. Via text, he told FanSided that if he were advising Jackson, a contract wouldn’t get done without 4-6 years of fully-guaranteed money.

With Jackson’s contract expiring after this season, there’s a litany of ways the future can go. Not all of them have Jackson returning to Baltimore on a long-term deal.

“How can the Ravens commit top-dollar long term to Lamar after this season?” asked one prominent agent. “He regressed as a passer and is experiencing the effects of running so much. My prediction is they’ll go year-to-year at this point. As an agent, I’d probably threaten to hold him out until right before the first game. Would totally screw their offseason. That’s if I can’t negotiate a long-term deal to our liking.”

Of all the knocks on Jackson, the biggest is typically his counting stats through the air. The former Heisman Trophy winner has never thrown for 3,200 yards in a season. Only once — his magical 2019 MVP campaign — has he eclipsed 30 touchdown tosses.

In 13 starts this year, Jackson is averaging 186.8 passing yards per game, ranking 29th of 33 qualified quarterbacks, slotted directly behind Zach Wilson.

While some point to the run-heavy scheme of offensive coordinator Greg Roman as the issue, others around the league believe Roman is playing the only cards he has. Those people see Jackson as ill-equipped to operate the type of offense seen in Kansas City or Cincinnati, both because Baltimore’s receivers are underwhelming and because it would force Jackson to attempt more passes while simultaneously limiting his biggest asset: his legs.

Presently, Jackson is hurt, missing three games and potentially more with a sprained knee. Last season, Jackson was sidelined for the final five games with an ankle sprain. Still, some don’t believe those maladies will negatively affect his standing come negotiations.

“In normal circumstances, any other player who isn’t superhuman like Lamar would probably be at 97 percent the rest of their career,” one longtime agent said of Jackson’s current injury and its impact on future negotiations. “But because Lamar is already a superhuman human being, he’s going to be at 99.999 (percent). There’s virtually going to be no difference in terms of what his performance will be moving forward, so you’re getting the same Lamar you were always getting.”

For Baltimore, the question with Jackson is a multi-faceted one. Do the Ravens believe Jackson will be as effective in his early 30s as he currently is? Furthermore, can they win the Super Bowl without an elite team around Jackson, which will be tough to build when paying cap-crippling money to the quarterback?

We don’t know the exact 2023 NFL salary cap, but speaking to multiple league sources, estimates came in around $220-225 million, up from this year’s figure of $208.2 million. What the number is could significantly impact what Baltimore decides to do.

“Now that the final TV picture is done, and teams get the estimates, I think they’ll be much more likely to tag him if there’s the big increase everybody is expecting,” one agent said. “If there’s a mid-big increase they’ll still possibly tag him and if it’s a lot less because of some of the COVID payback that’s still due, then that decreases the odds that they’ll tag him.”

How the Lamar Jackson-Ravens scenario could play out

Come the offseason, there are three plausible scenarios to consider. Here they are:

1) Jackson having the exclusive franchise tag placed on him, which will approximately cost Baltimore $45.248 million against the cap. The Ravens could opt for the non-exclusive tag to save money, but that’s almost unfathomable. In that scenario, another team could offer sheet Jackson, and if Baltimore doesn’t match the exact terms, Jackson leaves and the Ravens only get two first-round picks in return.

2) Jackson and the Ravens agreeing on a long-term deal. This would require either Baltimore or its star quarterback bending substantially from previous stances. The Ravens were essentially willing to guarantee only half the deal last summer. Would general manager Eric DeCosta move to fully guaranteed? Would Jackson move to 60 percent? Or, will the two sides meet somewhere in the middle?

3) Jackson gets traded. The Ravens could slap the exclusive tag on him in late February when the tag window opens, and then immediately start shopping the superstar around. If a deal is struck, it wouldn’t become official until the new league year begins on March 15, but it would mean Baltimore doesn’t have the cap charge at free agency’s outset. Additionally, the Ravens would presumedly have a slew of draft picks in a quarterback-rich draft.

“I’ve said all along that I don’t want to replace Lamar,” said one former NFL general manager to FanSided, asked to put himself in DeCosta’s position. “(Jackson’s) skill set is specific but rare. I do think I would give myself other options at the position so that we don’t have to make a bad financial deal.”

Factoring in all the possibilities and factors, Jackson and the Ravens could see their partnership end this winter if the sides can’t compromise on a long-term deal.

No team has ever carried a franchise tag north of $40 million, and although the Ravens could technically do so based on their cap sheet, it would mean having no room for other free agents.

In other words, DeCosta would be signing up for the same team without any certainly moving forward. No general manager wants or can tolerate such a predicament.

And, for the Ravens, moving Jackson would involve getting arguably the biggest return in league history. Baltimore would be able to select a top-end quarterback prospect before signing him to a cheap rookie deal, giving the Ravens ample financial flexibility for years to come.

Over the past two offseason, Jackson and the team have quietly danced around the contract issue, insisting there was time to figure it out.

Come the start of this offseason, there’s no nuance to the reality. Time is up in Baltimore.