Bills-Bengals preview, Chargers’ collapse and more
The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals are set to square off in the Divisional round, and it’ll be one of the most emotional games in NFL history.
Two weeks ago, the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills cried together. They watched a man die.
Now, the same teams are set to square off in a game of great significance, all while trying to stave off their shared experience so fresh in their minds.
While this matchup will be in Buffalo, the Bengals and Bills can’t escape the reality. The story of how both teams bore witness to the Damar Hamlin horror — thankfully turned miracle — will be the storyline all week. It won’t be about defensive schemes, Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen or the weather in western New York.
It’ll be about Hamlin, a canceled game and the subplots emerging from that night.
And for the Bengals, there’s the extra factor of feeling cheated. In Week 18, running back Joe Mixon scored a touchdown against the Baltimore Ravens, pulled a coin out of his sock and flipped it, mocking the NFL’s decisions regarding seeding and home-field advantage in the AFC.
Had Cincinnati beaten Buffalo that night, the Bengals would be hosting this game. Instead, Highmark Stadium is the venue. Zac Taylor’s club, including Taylor himself, hasn’t been shy about their bitterness towards the league putting the Bengals in a relatively tough spot compared to the Bills and Kansas City Chiefs.
Will that bitterness consume Cincinnati, or motivate it?
Whoever handles the motion of the moment next weekend will likely emerge victorious, and either host the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC title game, or get a shot at Kansas City (Buffalo would play in Atlanta, while Cincinnati would travel to Arrowhead Stadium). Regardless, it’s a date both teams would happily make, indifferent of opponent and location.
In the playoffs, it’s often true the team able to keep its head best, wins. We watched the Jaguars showcase that on Saturday night, overcoming a 27-0 deficit against the Los Angeles Chargers. Joey Bosa cost his team dearly with two personal fouls, once negating a game-changing sack and the other turning a likely extra point into a critical two-point conversion.
Jacksonville was able to maintain its emotions and won. The Chargers lost themselves, and then the game.
For Buffalo and Cincinnati, it’ll be much the same. The Bills can’t let the entire week become about what happened to their beloved teammate less than 15 days ago. They can honor him, but they must focus on the Bengals.
Conversely, Cincinnati can’t be immersed in feeling robbed of a potential home game. The Bengals have to worry about Allen’s legs, Stefon Diggs going against a weak corner group and how to counter when the Bills’ defense throws in wrinkles.
In anticipation of the Week 17 game, the talk was about all the above and more. The Bengals and Bills hadn’t played each other yet with Allen and Burrow as adversaries. It was going to be a showcase to see how the teams matched up before a probable playoff sequel.
And while we did see the opening script for each side, there’s still so much unknown.
What’s most unknown?
How well Buffalo and Cincinnati will focus on the game this week, with the dominant storylines being about anything but.
Whoever does a better job will be one win away from the Super Bowl.
Power rankings
Top performances from rookie QBs in NFL playoff history
1. Brock Purdy (2022): 18-of-30, 332 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INT (W, 41-23 vs. SEA)
2. Russell Wilson (2012): 24-of-36, 385 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT (L 30-28 at ATL)
3. Mark Sanchez (2009): 12-of-15, 182 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT (W, 24-14 at CIN)
4. Mark Sanchez (2009): 17-of-30, 257 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT (L, 30-17 at IND)
5. Russell Wilson (2012): 15-of-26, 187 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs (W, 24-14 at WSH)
6. Ben Roethlisberger (2004): 17-of-30, 181 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs (W, 20-17 vs. NYJ)
7. Andrew Luck (2012): 28-of-54, 288 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT (L, 24-9 at BAL)
8. Ben Roethlisberger (2004): 14-of-24, 226 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs (L, 41-27 vs. NE)
9. Matt Ryan (2008): 26-of-40, 199 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs (L, 30-24 at AZ)
10. Dan Marino (1983): 15-of-25, 193 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT (L, 27-20 vs. SEA)
Quotable
This was the most inexplicable moment of the weekend. Trailing 34-31 in the final 2:30 and at midfield, the Miami Dolphins had a real shot at a massive upset of Buffalo facing 4th and inches.
Then Miami couldn’t get a play in, took a delay of game and threw an incomplete pass. All afternoon, the Dolphins were undone by communication issues from the coaches to quarterback Skylar Thompson. On the biggest play of the game, it finally doomed them.
Podcast
Random stat
The New England Patriots won 30 postseason games with Tom Brady in an 18-year span.
That’s more than every other NFL team across their entire histories save for the Cowboys, 49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers.
Info learned this week
1. Giants win sets up third battle with Eagles, and it’s intriguing
Daniel Jones has been the best quarterback of Wild Card Weekend. Have that on your bingo card?
Jones propelled the New York Giants to a 31-24 upset of the Minnesota Vikings, handing the home team its first loss in one-score games out of 12 such affairs this season. All told, the four-year quarterback amassed 379 yards, including two touchdowns.
And while the defense’s late-game performance and Saquon Barkley running amok (on only nine carries) are talking points, it’s Jones who is key to keeping the third matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles close.
In their first meeting, the Giants were overwhelmed 48-22. They were 4-of-13 on third down, lost the turnover battle (1-0), allowed four sacks and only totaled 303 yards. In their second meeting, Big Blue rested everybody in a meaningless Week 18 tilt.
Realistically, nobody believes Jones will repeat his performance from this weekend. Minnesota is one of the league’s worst defense in a variety of metrics. Conversely, Philadelphia leads the league in sacks and has a terrific secondary led by corners Darius Slay and James Bradberry.
However, if Jones is given time and can utilize his legs to pick up a few third downs, the game becomes interesting with the Eagles having health concerns all over the roster.
To that point, when Jones runs at least 10 times this season? The Giants are 6-0-1.
2. 49ers await Cowboys-Bucs winner, and they should have preference
For the San Francisco 49ers, they must wait an additional 24 hours to learn their opponent.
And while they’d never admit it, they’re all wearing Tom Brady jerseys watching Monday’s game.
San Francisco is a juggernaut, showcased by their 41-23 thrashing of Seattle, despite playing poorly for 30 minutes. The Niners have the best weapons in football, the best defense in football and a quarterback who only needs to manage the game without horrific mistakes.
This is where the rooting interest comes in.
The Buccaneers have a putrid offense, only scoring 30 points twice all year. Tampa Bay ranks 23rd in yards per play and is 32nd in rushing. And although Brady threw for 4,694 yards this season, the Bucs are 31st in yards per completion, only better than the Arizona Cardinals. Bluntly, this isn’t an offense which can pressure San Francisco into forcing the issue.
On the other hand, Dallas has the ability to move the football and create issues. The Cowboys will turn the ball over — Dak Prescott led the league with 15 interceptions despite missing five games — but receiver CeeDee Lamb, tight end Dalton Schultz, and running backs Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott can be hazardous for a defense.
But perhaps the biggest issue Dallas presents to San Francisco is a pass rush that can harass Brock Purdy. Purdy has been excellent in clean pockets but against Seattle, was scattershot when forced to move. The Cowboys ranked third in both pressure rate and sacks, while having only the 13th-highest blitz rate.
San Francisco will rightfully be the favorite regardless of opponent, but the Bucs are the better matchup.
3. Chiefs take on Jaguars with two defenses on the rise
Everyone will talk about Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence. They’ll talk about Doug Pederson seeing an old friend in Andy Reid.
Few will talk about two defenses peaking at the right time.
For Jacksonville, it’s a unit coming together after myriad offseason moves. The Jaguars struggled early but have been terrific down the stretch. In their last five regular-season games, Jacksonville allowed 15.6 points per game. Against the Los Angeles Chargers, they surrendered 30 but only 13 on drives starting outside their own red zone. All told, Justin Herbert and Co. averaged a measly 4. 6 yards per game.
In Kansas City, the Chiefs haven’t allowed 6.0 yards per play since Week 13. The unit has been buoyed by a pair of first-round rookies in corner Trent McDuffie and edge rusher George Karlaftis. The emergence of McDuffie since returning from an early-season hamstring injury has allowed fellow cornerback L’Jarius Sneed to travel with the opponent’s top target. As for Karlaftis, he has six sacks over the past seven games, after only a half-sack in his first 10 contests.
When the Jaguars and Chiefs met at Arrowhead in Week 11, Kansas City rolled up 486 yards, went 7-of-10 on third down and recorded five sacks on Lawrence in a 27-17 win, despite being -3 in the turnover ratio.
If Jacksonville is to pull a big upset, it’ll be because its defense forces more turnovers, and Lawrence has better protection.
4. Lamar watch begins in Baltimore as the Ravens are eliminated
Yep, the Lamar Jackson saga is about to kick into high gear.
After missing the Ravens’ final five regular-season tilts and then their 24-17 loss to the Bengals, Jackson is due for a new contract. Obviously, Jackson won’t reach the open market because he’ll either sign a long-term extension or be franchised tagged.
If it’s the former, no drama. If it’s the latter, buckle up.
Under the tag scenario, Baltimore has two options. If can slap Jackson with the exclusive tag and nobody can make an offer. If he gets the non-exclusive tag, another team can sign Jackson to an offer sheet, giving Baltimore one week to match the exact terms. If the Ravens match, he signs that contract in Baltimore. If they don’t, the Ravens get two first-round picks.
Because of Jackson’s value, there’s almost no world where Baltimore uses the non-exclusive tag, meaning No. 8 is about to get the more valuable designation. That means the Ravens are looking at a cap hit of roughly $45.248 million, the largest sum ever on the tag.
At that point, Ravens general manager Eric DeCosta has to make a move. The smart play is negotiating with Jackson — who doesn’t have an agent. If the negotiations don’t move the conversation forward, offer your best deal. If that’s declined, shop Jackson with the price starting at three first-round picks.
For the Ravens, going into 2023 with Jackson on the tag is a mess. He might be unwilling to play on it and hold out of OTAs and minicamp, with a deadline for a long-term deal being July 15. If nothing gets done by then, does he scuttle the season by sitting out a few months?
Additionally, if Jackson played out the year on the tag, he could easily get another one in 2024. That would come at a 20 percent increase, which means an astronomical cap charge of $54 million. DeCosta can’t keep doing business this way.
If Baltimore can’t get Jackson signed by early March, expect it to tag him and explore all options.
5. This is a defining moment for Dak’s career in Dallas
It has not been an easy year for Dak Prescott. It’ll get immeasurably harder with a loss on Monday.
After signing a four-year, $160 million deal in March 2021, it appeared Prescott was the unquestioned leader in Dallas for a long time ahead. Then this season happened. Prescott led the league with his aforementioned 15 picks. He also watched backup Cooper Rush go 4-1 in his stead, making many believe Rush should keep the job.
Now, the Cowboys enter Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers as 2.5-point favorites. They’re clearly the better team. They’re supposed to win.
A victory, and Prescott will earn the opportunity to enhance his stature by going to San Francisco and taking down the vaunted 49ers. A loss, and the conversation will be about Prescott’s shortcomings once more.
In the postseason, Prescott is 1-3. He’s completing 60.9 percent of his attempts with six touchdowns and three interceptions, topping 300 passing yards only once. It’s time for a big showing.
Based on Prescott’s contract, he’ll be in Dallas for the remainder of his deal. But those years will be a lot smoother with a playoff run over the next few weeks.
Two cents
The Chargers suffered the second-worst loss in NFL history on Saturday night.
Nothing tops the Atlanta Falcons blowing a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI. That’s the Super Bowl, and it all fell apart in the second half. But the Chargers losing a 27-0 lead to Jacksonville despite being +5 in the turnover battle against a team with less talent and the same experience level? Absurd.
No, it’s not the biggest comeback in postseason history by numbers. The ’92 Houston Oilers blew a 35-3, third-quarter lead to the Bills. In 2013, the Chiefs relinquished a 38-10 lead with less than 30 minutes remaining. But Buffalo was in the midst of reaching four straight Super Bowls. It was an all-time team. Indianapolis was better than Kansas City, and the Chiefs didn’t have a superstar at quarterback.
For the Chargers, this won’t be lived down. For coach Brandon Staley, it may not be survived.
The loss is going to require a complete review of everybody in Los Angeles’ building, starting with general manager Tom Telesco. Telesco should be safe having built a talented roster, but it’s a top-heavy group full of injury-prone stars.
Staley is obviously the bigger issue. He’s a supposed defensive guru who couldn’t stop the Jaguars in the second half, all while watching offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi shackle quarterback Justin Herbert, and simultaneously calling seven running plays in the second half.
For Los Angeles, the best option is firing Staley and making a huge run at Sean Payton (more on Payton below). He enjoys Southern California — who doesn’t? — and could make sweet music with Herbert. He doesn’t fix every problem, but he’s a much better answer than the current situation. But will the Spanos Family give Payton full control? What happens with Telesco?
And, most pressingly, will they write Payton a monster check?
Even if they do, it’s not simple. To acquire Payton, the Chargers must trade what will likely be a first-round pick and then some to the New Orleans Saints. Considering both its cap situation and the aforementioned deal for Payton, Los Angeles will be low on assets.
Nothing is easy for the Chargers. Saturday night proved that in spades.
Inside the league
Keep your eyes on the Indianapolis Colts.
Picking No. 4 overall, the Colts have a dire need for a franchise quarterback. General manager Chris Ballard is running out of time, and he understands the task. Find the future.
With the Chicago Bears selecting No. 1 overall, Ballard has a lifeline. The Colts only need to jump three spots, including their division rivals in the Houston Texans, who pick second. Ballard also happens to know Chicago general manager Ryan Poles, who he worked with in Kansas City from 2013-16. There’s a relationship there which could help talks get started and culminate in a deal.
To move up three picks, the Colts would likely have to relinquish a package including two-first round choices and another selection in the top 100. For the Bears, it allows them to still choose either edge rusher Will Anderson (Alabama) or defensive tackle Jalen Carter (Georgia) while having multiple first-rounders in 2024. For Indy, it gets the quarterback of its choosing at an acceptable price.
And if there’s a dark horse team in all this, it’s the Carolina Panthers.
Carolina has a multitude of draft capital after trading All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey to San Francisco, including multiple second- and fourth-round choices this April. Sitting No. 9 overall, the Panthers would have the ammo between the next two drafts to potentially make a move.
BetSided‘s best bet
Giants (+7.5) at Eagles
I know, I know, the Giants have some poor underlying numbers and should struggle to keep up with Philly.
Or should they?
Do we really know if the Eagles are going to be the same team with Jalen Hurts dealing with a shoulder injury? Two weekends ago, the Giants’ backups kept Week 18 within six points, and Philadelphia had to have that win.
New York’s offense was humming against Minnesota, and there’s a path to success against the Eagles. Philadelphia allows 4.6 yards per carry this season, ninth-worst in the NFL. On Sunday, we saw the Giants ride Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley to a Wild Card victory.
Getting over the key number of seven is huge for me here, and with a total in the mid-40s, don’t be shocked if New York hangs around in what might be a one-score game.
This is too many points for a Giants team that has familiarity with the Eagles, and it’s hard to be the same team three times…
– Peter Dewey
History lesson
The Houston Oilers are but a memory. Perhaps one of the reasons? A successful stretch marred by crushing losses.
From 1987-93, the Oilers reached the AFC playoffs seven consecutive years. Yet Houston only advanced three times and never reached the conference title game.
The 1992 and ’93 seasons were particularly tough. In the ’92 Wild Card round, Houston famously led Buffalo 35-3 before losing 41-38 in overtime, to this day the biggest comeback in playoff history.
The following year, the Oilers rode an 11-game winning streak into the postseason and took on a Chiefs team it handled 30-0 in Week 2. However, facing Joe Montana, Houston’s House of Pain defense fizzled in the fourth quarter, watching a 13-7 lead turn into a 28-20 loss.
The following offseason, owner Bud Adams dismantled the team. After four more seasons, the Oilers were no more, becoming the Tennessee Titans.
Parting shot
Sean Payton is taking interviews, but it seems likely where he’ll land.
And it’s not with anybody he’s agreed to speak with yet.
So far, the Saints have authorized Payton to speak with the Denver Broncos, Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans about their head-coaching vacancies. Payton, under contract with New Orleans through the 2024 season, has options. The Saints also have a say, being able to demand a nice haul for his services.
Frankly, none of those situations are ideal. Arizona and Denver have lacking rosters with quarterbacks on bad deals. Kyler Murray might be more salvageable than Russell Wilson based on age and current talent level, but he’s also rehabbing from a torn ACL sustained in December.
Houston is intriguing. The Texans hold the No. 2 overall pick and will get a young quarterback. They also have serious cap space, and Payton’s wallet can enjoy Texas being an income-tax-free state. But Houston has also had four coaches in four years. The leadership is a mess.
But the best options for Payton are the Chargers and Cowboys, should the latter lose and remove Mike McCarthy. Both teams are talented and set at quarterback, especially Los Angeles. Of course, Payton and Cowboys owner Jerry Jones are exceedingly close stemming from Payton’s time in Dallas as an assistant for Bill Parcells, so that matters as well.
Payton should be patient and intentional, because at 59 years old, this is his shot to get what’s likely his last job right.
