Patrick Mahomes’ ATS record is terrible as a big favorite
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JANUARY 23: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates a touchdown scored by Tyreek Hill #10 against the Buffalo Bills during the fourth quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 23, 2022 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)
Patrick Mahomes does a lot of things on the football field that’ll make your jaw drop. The one thing he appears unable to do, however, is pad bettor’s pockets when the Chiefs are a big favorite.
Over the past three seasons, Mahomes is 11-18 against the spread when the Chiefs are favorites of 7 or more points. That’s pertinent information this week because the Chiefs are currently -8.5 favorites against the Jaguars.
Equally concerning as that stat, the Chiefs were 6-10-1 ATS overall this season, 2-6 ATS at home and 3-5 ATS as a favorite of 7 or more points. They did cover at home as -9.5 point favorites against Jacksonville, but that was in Week 10. The Jags went 6-3 ATS after that and 8-1 overall.
That being said, Mahomes is 8-3 overall and 7-4 ATS in the playoffs and has thrown 28 TDs vs only 7 INTs in 11 career playoff games.
As is so often the case with betting trends, it’s up to you to decide how you want to bet based on their information. Personally, I’m siding with the Chiefs. They have a decided advantage in the red zone on offense (KC 2nd in RZ offense, Jags 24th in RZ defense) and red zone efficiency is critical in the postseason. Against a young Jags team, I think that makes the difference.
Trends are meant to be broken and if there’s anyone I’m willing to bet on breaking them it’s the presumptive MVP this season. Give me Mahomes and take the points.
