NFL playoff upset pick for divisional round (Jags are top prediction)

The divisional round of the NFL Playoffs is here, arguably the best weekend of football of the year.

There are four games on the board this week, so we have fewer options to find an upset pick. Last week, I gave you two. The Giants successfully upset the Vikings, and I was oh so close to calling the Dolphins upsetting the Bills.

This week, I have one upset that I’m eyeing, and it’s the biggest one on the board.

Let’s dive into my top upset pick for the divisional round.

NFL upset pick for divisional round

Jacksonville Jaguars +350 vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Before you laugh at this pick, hear me out.

The Jaguars entered the playoffs as the hottest team in the AFC, and then stormed back to take down the Chargers on Wild Card Weekend, erasing a 27-0 deficit.

Their defense, specifically, has been on fire. They have allowed only 4.4 yards per play over their last three games. Even more importantly, the Jaguars secondary is allowing only 5.3 yards per pass attempt during that stretch. Mahomes may be in for a challenge if Jacksonville can keep that level of play up.

The Chiefs aren’t without their red flags either. Their biggest red flag has to do with their play in the red zone. The Chiefs have the second worst red zone defense in the NFL, allowing their opponents to score a touchdown on 67.27% of red zone trips against them.

Kansas City also ranks 22nd in the league in average turnover margin at -0.2.

For upsets to happen, failing to keep your opponents to field goals while losing the turnover battle are two key ingredients, and those are two areas that the Chiefs struggle in.

Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence might be able to pull off the unthinkable on Saturday.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.