If Eagles beat 49ers in NFC title game, it’ll be situational football

The Philadelphia Eagles do a ton of things well, but their biggest advantage over the San Francisco 49ers, save for quarterback, is in the details.

This season, there have been 281 NFL games, playoffs included. Of them, 164 (58.3 percent) have been one-score affairs.

In the NFC Championship Game, there’s little reason to expect a blowout. The Philadelphia Eagles enter the tilt holding the conference’s best record at 14-3. The San Francisco 49ers, 13-4, haven’t lost since October.

With two teams so talented, and so evenly matched, the winner is often decided on the margins.

Should this game come down to such a thing, Philadelphia has the advantage.

The Eagles have been phenomenal offensively in the red zone and on third down. During the regular season, Philadelphia ranked fourth and third respectively in those areas. Quarterback Jalen Hurts’ legs give offensive coordinator Steve Steichen a number advantage near the goal line, whether he keeps or shows himself as a running option.

Meanwhile, the 49ers aren’t nearly as effective in this situation. While San Francisco is sixth on third down, it struggled in the red zone, clocking in 17th. This is largely because Brock Purdy (and Jimmy Garoppolo) aren’t threats to run, and neither has the arm strength to throw into tight windows.

Defensively, it’s another clean sweep in these categories. The Eagles were 14th on third down and 12th in the red zone. San Francisco, surprisingly, was only 16th and 20th in these areas.

What’s the reason? One idea is pressure.

Philadelphia led the NFL with 68 sacks, 13 more than the second-place Kansas City Chiefs. While Nick Bosa is the best pass-rusher in this matchup — having totaled 18.5 sacks of San Francisco’s 44 sacks this year — the Niners don’t have the arsenal showcased by the Eagles. Philadelphia saw four men amass double-digit sacks including Haason Reddick (16), Brandon Graham (11), Josh Sweat (11), and Javon Hargrave (11).

For San Francisco to win with a rookie seventh-round quarterback in a hostile environment, it must win in ways it hasn’t this season.

The Niners must land sevens and not threes and must continue drives in a few critical spots. They also must continue being the league’s best in turnover ratio (+13), forcing Philadelphia into a few errors.

For San Francisco and Philadelphia, the NFC Championship Game likely won’t be decided by haymakers and wild swings.

It’ll turn on a few crucial plays, ones often swayed by the tiniest of margins.