Arsenal win over Man City would embolden Gunners' belief

The time has come for Mikel Arteta to decide whether to stick or twist. Arsenal face Manchester City in Wednesday’s Premier League title showdown with the Gunners boss facing perhaps his biggest conundrum of the season: persevere with the same players who have taken them to the top of the table or freshen up a side that has shown signs of dipping below their best?

In this past weekend’s 1-1 draw against Brentford, Arsenal named an unchanged lineup for the sixth consecutive Premier League match. It is the first time they have done so in eight years and a strong indication of the serenity in selection that has helped the Gunners arrive for this midweek matchup against City three points clear at the summit.

Opta data shows Arsenal have made just 14 changes to their starting lineup this season, nine fewer than any other Premier League side. By contrast, City have made 49 changes, a figure only surpassed by Chelsea, Southampton, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Nottingham Forest.

– Stream on ESPN+: LaLiga, Bundesliga, more (U.S.)

A deeper look at those numbers shows Arsenal have used 25 players in total with 17 different starters, compared to City using 21 players with 18 starters.

Pep Guardiola has long preferred to use a slightly smaller group but extremely high on quality, perhaps best evidenced by the way in which World Cup winner Julian Alvarez was ready to replace Erling Haaland if required, while Phil Foden has returned from illness to compete with Jack Grealish, Riyad Mahrez and, perhaps, Bernardo Silva, in a wide attacking position.

Arsenal’s relied-upon starters have exceeded all expectations this season. It is likely the case that if they are to stay the course and win the title, their depth players will now have to do the same.

The Gunners are hardly capitulating. After all, they were denied victory against Brentford because of a goal that should have been ruled out by VAR, an error the referees body Professional Game Match Officials Limited have since apologised for.

Following on from their defeat at Everton a week earlier, though, Arsenal were not at their free-flowing best once again with Gabriel Martinelli among those who have allowed standards to slip a little. The 21-year-old is not playing badly but there has been a dip, particularly since signing his new contract at the beginning of the month, and his place may look a little more vulnerable after Leandro Trossard came off the bench against Brentford to score his first Arsenal goal following last month’s £27 million move from Brighton & Hove Albion.

The club’s January business will come under greater scrutiny in the weeks ahead. Trossard and Jorginho, a £12m signing from Chelsea, were two shrewd acquisitions with proven Premier League experience requiring no adaptation, but it is no secret that the club were after bigger names.

They tried to sign Mykhailo Mudryk and ended with up Trossard. They tried to sign Moises Caicedo and ended up with Jorginho.

There were reasons behind both decisions, ultimately a judgment that they had made generous offers for their top targets and felt pushing themselves further represented too great a risk. The wisdom of those calls will be tested, and that may come sooner than Arteta would have liked given his team have now gone three games without a win, including their FA Cup third-round exit at City on Jan. 27.

Trossard for Martinelli would make a degree of sense, as perhaps would introducing Takehiro Tomiyasu at right-back in place of Ben White, who is another not quite replicating his fine early-season form of late. Arteta will be mindful of giving the players who have created this unexpected title tilt a chance to ram home that advantage against their closest rivals, though, particularly if he wants to go toe-to-toe with City.

Arsenal mirror City in that both teams prefer to dominate the ball, but there was no contest in that regard last season.

The Gunners have played 118 Premier League matches under Arteta. Their two lowest possession totals in that time came in their games against City during 2021-22: 20.1% when losing 5-0 at Etihad Stadium in August 2021, 29.1% in a 2-1 home defeat on New Year’s Day 2022.

City dictate terms against almost every side they face, and on both occasions Arsenal had a man sent off — Granit Xhaka after 35 minutes in that 5-0 loss and Gabriel Magalhaes on 59 minutes of the reverse game, in which Arteta was absent because of COVID-19 and his team only succumbed to a Rodri header in stoppage time. Those two performances highlight the impressive manner in which Arsenal have closed the gap on City — having lost their past 10 league games against them — but Arteta must decide whether the front-foot, attack-minded approach that has served them so well all season is the way to go against a team that has perfected that art in domestic football in the past five years.

Rotation has not come naturally to him this season, but second-guessing Guardiola’s lineups remains fraught with danger. Key to retaining the hunger in a team that is seeking a third consecutive league title is that unpredictability in selection — for example, suddenly resting Kevin De Bruyne at Tottenham. It remains to be seen whether the injury talk around Haaland is more obfuscation than a genuine concern; neither manager gave much away when discussing team news on Tuesday.

Guardiola has also kept his players focused by showing a willingness to jettison those deemed no longer useful. Raheem Sterling went to Chelsea last summer as Gabriel Jesus and Oleksandr Zinchenko were transferred to Arsenal, two players inestimably improving the Gunners’ squad.

Joao Cancelo‘s sudden departure for Bayern Munich last month — following a reported disagreement with Guardiola, centred on what the City boss believed was a lack of application in training — sent a warning to his squad about complacency, but also compounded the decision to allow Zinchenko to leave. The Ukraine international’s intelligence in drifting into midfield when Arsenal have possession — something Cancelo did repeatedly for City — has been a vital tactic in Arsenal’s ability to control matches, and will likely be another intriguing aspect of what should be a fascinating battle.

Wednesday will not determine the destiny of the title, but an Arsenal win would embolden Arteta and his players to believe that they may yet have the squad to match City stride for stride in the months ahead.