NHL playoff watch: Who will grab the Western wild cards?

Now that the trade deadline has passed, the rush to the 2023 Stanley Cup playoffs begins in earnest. Each day until the final day of the regular season, we’ll bring you updated playoff standings and projections, the game schedule, scores from the night before and the current draft lottery outlook, with Connor Bedard sitting as the prize for the team that wins the No. 1 pick.

But before all of that, let’s hone in today on the race for the two wild-card spots in the Western Conference.

Following Sunday’s action, the Colorado Avalanche have jumped into third place in the Central Division with 74 points, with the Winnipeg Jets sliding back into the second wild-card spot. The first wild-card spot is occupied by the Edmonton Oilers (76 points).

Tonight, the Oilers will be paying a visit to the Buffalo Sabres in a game exclusively on ESPN+ and Hulu, as the Oilers continue their push for a slot in the Pacific Division seeds, or a wild card at least. The Jets will take on the San Jose Sharks.

The Nashville Predators — who traded away Mattias Ekholm, Tanner Jeannot, Nino Niederreiter and Mikael Granlund — are six points behind Winnipeg heading into tonight’s matchup against the Vancouver Canucks. FiveThirtyEight gives them a 38% chance of making the postseason.

Meanwhile, the Calgary Flames — who won the Pacific Division crown last season, before a summer of roster upheaval — are seven points out, with a 15% chance at the playoffs. They will take on the Dallas Stars tonight, a club looking to tighten its hold on the top spot in the Central Division.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Pittsburgh Penguins
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 New York Islanders
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Edmonton Oilers
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Seattle Kraken

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Monday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres, 7:30 PM (ESPN+/Hulu)
San Jose Sharks at Winnipeg Jets, 7:30 PM
Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars, 8:30 PM
Ottawa Senators at Chicago Blackhawks, 9 PM
Washington Capitals at Los Angeles Kings, 10:30 PM
Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks, 10:30 PM

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Sunday’s scoreboard

Watch In the Crease on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Carolina Hurricanes 6, Tampa Bay Lightning 0
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Detroit Red Wings 1
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Montreal Canadiens 3
New Jersey Devils 5, Arizona Coyotes 4 (OT)
Seattle Kraken 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 103
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 20
Next game: vs. EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 19
Next game: @ NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 21
Next game: vs. EDM (Monday)
Playoff chances: 30%
Tragic number: 39

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Next game: @ CHI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 17%
Tragic number: 37

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Next game: vs. VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 30%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. CHI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 1%
Tragic number: 32

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 23

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Metropolitan Division

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 21
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 20
Next game: vs. TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 19
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 72
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Next game: vs. BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 41%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 20
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 69%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Next game: @ LA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 14%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: @ TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 26

Points: 46
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 13

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Central Division

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. CGY (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 95%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 21
Next game: vs. SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. SJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 74%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 22
Next game: @ VAN (Monday)
Playoff chances: 38%
Tragic number: 38

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Next game: @ ARI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. STL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 16

Points: 47
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Next game: vs. OTT (Monday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 13

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Pacific Division

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 19
Next game: @ FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 18
Next game: vs. WSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: 95%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 19
Next game: vs. ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 96%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 18
Next game: @ BUF (Monday)
Playoff chances: 91%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: @ DAL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 15%
Tragic number: 31

Points: 55
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 20
Next game: vs. NSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 21

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 11
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: @ SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 48
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Next game: @ WPG (Monday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 12

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order at the top of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team may move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 46
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 47
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 48
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 11

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 55
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 65
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 27

Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16: