NHL playoff standings update: Way-too-early wild-card matchup looks in the East

There is still more than a month left in the regular season, so the specific playoff matchups as they stand today may not be the same ones that we see in April. But that won’t stop us from looking ahead a bit — at least in the case of the top two seeds in the Eastern Conference.

According to Money Puck, the Boston Bruins are projected to have a 100% chance of winning the Atlantic Division (no surprise, given their 17-point cushion with two games in hand over the Toronto Maple Leafs), while the Carolina Hurricanes have an 89.8% chance of winning the Metro — their lead is slimmer, at four points over the New Jersey Devils, but they have a game in hand and an additional regulation win if it goes to a tiebreaker.

As of now, the Bruins would take on the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round, while the Canes would draw the New York Islanders. Players won’t publicly admit who they’d prefer playing, but what do the numbers say?

The Bruins have won both of their games against the Penguins, with an aggregate score of 8-6; they’ve won all three contests against the Isles, outscoring them 14-6 in those contests. Of the other teams in the wild-card hunt, the B’s have gone 2-0-1 against the Buffalo Sabres (13-6 goal differential), 2-1-1 against the Florida Panthers (17-15), 1-1-1 vs. the Ottawa Senators (with the Sens leading in goal differential 11-10), and 1-1-0 against the Washington Capitals (leading them in goals 6-4).

Meanwhile, the Canes have bested the Isles 2-1-0 thus far this season, with a 10-8 edge in goals; they’ve gone a perfect 4-0-0 against Sidney Crosby & Co. (12-8 in goals). As for their other potential first-round matchups, the Canes are 2-0-0 against Buffalo (10-4 differential), 1-1-0 against Florida (4-3) 3-0 against the Caps (10-5), and they won their lone game against the Sens 4-0.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Pittsburgh Penguins
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 New York Islanders
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Edmonton Oilers
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Seattle Kraken

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Thursday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Dallas Stars at Buffalo Sabres, 7 p.m.
Philadelphia Flyers at Carolina Hurricanes, 7 p.m.
New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.
New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7 p.m.
Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m.
New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals, 7 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at Boston Bruins, 7:30 p.m. (ESPN+, Hulu)
San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues, 8 p.m.
Nashville Predators at Arizona Coyotes, 9 p.m.
Los Angeles Kings at Colorado Avalanche, 9 p.m.
Ottawa Senators at Seattle Kraken, 10 p.m.

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Wednesday’s scoreboard

Watch In the Crease on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Detroit Red Wings 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Minnesota Wild 4, Winnipeg Jets 2
Vancouver Canucks 3, Anaheim Ducks 2

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 103
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 20
Points pace: 136
Next game: vs. EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 18
Points pace: 110
Next game: vs. EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 88
Next game: vs. CHI (Friday)
Playoff chances: 39%
Tragic number: 31

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 15%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 89
Next game: @ SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 9%
Tragic number: 33

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ BOS (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 20

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Metropolitan Division

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 20
Points pace: 122
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 115
Next game: @ WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 19
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 52%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 19
Points pace: 95
Next game: vs. NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 76%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 86
Next game: vs. NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 10%
Tragic number: 29

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 76
Next game: @ CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 47
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 60
Next game: vs. STL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 10

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Central Division

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 102
Next game: @ SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 97%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 20
Points pace: 101
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 95
Next game: @ FLA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 54%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 21
Points pace: 93
Next game: @ ARI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 35%
Tragic number: 36

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 19
Points pace: 77
Next game: vs. SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 22

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 69
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 15

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 63
Next game: @ FLA (Friday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 10

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Pacific Division

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 18
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 17
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 18
Points pace: 103
Next game: vs. OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 17
Points pace: 98
Next game: @ BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 94%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. ANA (Friday)
Playoff chances: 32%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 18
Points pace: 76
Next game: vs. OTT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 20

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 11
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 64
Next game: @ CGY (Friday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 63
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 9

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order at the top of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team may move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 47
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 11

Points: 50
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 23

Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16: