NHL playoff watch: A must-win for the Capitals?

Leading into the NHL trade deadline, there was much discussion as to the direction the Washington Capitals would take: Would they load up again for another run at a Stanley Cup? Would they try to flip some veterans for young players and draft picks?

GM Brian MacLellan made it pretty clear by his moves which way the franchise was headed, trading away Dmitry Orlov, Lars Eller, Marcus Johansson, Erik Gustafsson and Garnet Hathaway, and picking up Rasmus Sandin along with a bevy of early-round picks.

But then a funny thing happened: Since March 1, the Caps have gone 5-4-2 and stuck around the wild-card bubble. Leading into tonight’s matchup against the rival Pittsburgh Penguins (8 ET, ABC and ESPN+), they are four points behind the Pens, with an equal number of regulation wins.

This isn’t exactly a must-win mathematically — the Caps have some wiggle room remaining — but the schedule gets quite challenging from here on out. They’ll take on the New York Islanders, Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Rangers next (all playoff teams), followed by a brief respite against the Montreal Canadiens before a foreboding final quartet of games against the Florida Panthers, Islanders, Boston Bruins and New Jersey Devils. Yikes.

Given all of that, FiveThirtyEight gives the Caps a 3% chance of making the postseason. How high does that rise should they defeat the Penguins?

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Pittsburgh Penguins
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 New York Islanders
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

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Saturday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins, 1 p.m. (NHLN)
Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers, 1 p.m.
Seattle Kraken at Nashville Predators, 2 p.m.
San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames, 4 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Los Angeles Kings, 4 p.m.
New York Rangers at Florida Panthers, 5 p.m.
Chicago Blackhawks at Minnesota Wild, 5 p.m.
Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders, 5 p.m. (ESPN+/Hulu)
Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes, 7 p.m.
Vancouver Canucks at Dallas Stars, 7 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Montreal Canadiens, 7 p.m.
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins, 8 p.m. (ABC/ESPN+)
Vegas Golden Knights at Edmonton Oilers, 10 p.m.
St. Louis Blues at Anaheim Ducks, 10:30 p.m.

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Friday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Buffalo Sabres 5, New Jersey Devils 4
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, New York Islanders 4 (OT)
Colorado Avalanche 3, Arizona Coyotes 1

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 115
Regulation wins: 48
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 133
Next game: vs. TB (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 95
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 110
Next game: @ CAR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 101
Next game: @ BOS (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. NYR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 48%
Tragic number: 19

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ NJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 4%
Tragic number: 15

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ NYI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 3%
Tragic number: 16

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 82
Next game: @ PHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 13

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 71
Next game: vs. CBJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 2

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Metropolitan Division

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 12
Points pace: 117
Next game: vs. TOR (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. OTT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ FLA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. BUF (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 83%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 91
Next game: vs. WSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 59%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 85
Next game: @ PIT (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 3%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 76
Next game: vs. DET (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 8

Points: 53
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 61
Next game: @ MTL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Central Division

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. VAN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 10
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. CHI (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 11
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ ARI (Sunday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 96
Next game: @ LA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 76%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 94
Next game: vs. SEA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 23%
Tragic number: 19

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 81
Next game: @ ANA (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 7

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. COL (Sunday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 62
Next game: @ MIN (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Pacific Division

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 10
Points pace: 109
Next game: @ EDM (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 11
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. WPG (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 10
Points pace: 103
Next game: vs. VGK (Saturday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 11
Points pace: 99
Next game: @ NSH (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 95%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. SJ (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 7%
Tragic number: 12

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 11
Points pace: 80
Next game: @ DAL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 6

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 64
Next game: vs. STL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 53
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ CGY (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team might move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 53
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 53
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 19

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 31

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26

*Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16: