NHL playoff watch: A must-win game for the Panthers?

It’s a typically light Wednesday schedule in the NHL this evening, with only three games on the slate. One of them pits a team that just clinched a playoff berth — the Toronto Maple Leafs, who appear destined for a first-round matchup with the Tampa Bay Lightning — against one that is trying to claw its way back into a wild-card spot, the Florida Panthers (7:30 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+).

Heading into the game, the Panthers are three points behind — and four regulation wins ahead — the Pittsburgh Penguins for wild card No. 2, and six points and two regulation wins behind the New York Islanders for wild card No. 1.

Following Wednesday night’s clash with the Leafs, it’s a string of lottery teams — at the Montreal Canadiens, at the Columbus Blue Jackets, then home for the Buffalo Sabres and Ottawa Senators before a game at the Washington Capitals. Following that quintet of games, they’ll close out at home against the Leafs and the Carolina Hurricanes, both of whom are already well set in their playoff positions.

Will they pull it off? FiveThirtyEight’s model is skeptical, giving the Panthers a 26% chance of making the playoffs, compared to 90% for the Isles and 71% for the Penguins.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Pittsburgh Penguins
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 New York Islanders
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Minnesota Wild vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Colorado Avalanche vs. C3 Dallas Stars
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

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Wednesday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Florida Panthers at Toronto Maple Leafs, 7:30 p.m.
New York Islanders at Washington Capitals, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
Minnesota Wild at Colorado Avalanche, 10 p.m. (TNT)

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Tuesday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Nashville Predators 2, Boston Bruins 1
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Carolina Hurricanes 0
Detroit Red Wings 7, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
New York Rangers 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Montreal Canadiens 2
St. Louis Blues 6, Vancouver Canucks 5 (OT)
Dallas Stars 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Calgary Flames 2, Los Angeles Kings 1
Edmonton Oilers 7, Vegas Golden Knights 4
San Jose Sharks 3, Winnipeg Jets 0

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 119
Regulation wins: 49
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 132
Next game: vs. CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 97
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. FLA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 7
Points pace: 101
Next game: vs. WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 88
Next game: @ TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 26%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 87
Next game: vs. NYR (Friday)
Playoff chances: 6%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 85
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 4%
Tragic number: 12

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 72
Next game: vs. FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Metropolitan Division

Points: 103
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 116
Next game: @ DET (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 109
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 7
Points pace: 93
Next game: @ WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 90%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 91
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 71%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 84
Next game: vs. NYI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 11

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 79
Next game: @ OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 7

Points: 53
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 60
Next game: @ BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Central Division

Points: 95
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 106
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ ARI (Friday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 7
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. DET (Friday)
Playoff chances: 56%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 92
Next game: @ PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 21%
Tragic number: 16

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 82
Next game: @ CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 6

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. DAL (Friday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 60
Next game: vs. STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Pacific Division

Points: 98
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 109
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 8
Points pace: 106
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 95
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 7
Points pace: 104
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 99
Next game: vs. ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 91
Next game: @ VAN (Friday)
Playoff chances: 25%
Tragic number: 13

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 82
Next game: vs. CGY (Friday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 6

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 62
Next game: @ SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 55
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 61
Next game: vs. VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team might move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 53
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 55
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 66
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 67
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 77
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 31

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 83
Regulation wins: 28

*Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16: