Justin Herbert contract: Projecting what an extension might look like

The Los Angeles Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert have begun contract extension negotiations. Here is what his new deal might look like.

The quarterback market is once again the talk of the NFL offseason. While the free agency class was far from stacked, there were deals made that really put into perspective how expensive quarterbacks will be from here on out. Daniel Jones signed a four-year, $160 million contract extension with the New York Giants and Derek Carr signed a four-year, $150 million deal with the New Orleans Saints. With that, the attention will be on some top, young quarterbacks that are due for their next contract.

One of them is Los Angeles Chargers signal caller Justin Herbert.

At the annual league meetings this week, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley revealed that the team and Herbert have opened up contract talks this offseason. Herbert is scheduled to be a free agent after the 2024 season if the Chargers pick up his fifth-year option by the May 1 deadline.

So, what would Herbert’s contract look like?

Predicting Justin Herbert contract when Chargers sign QB to extension

Well, first things first is that the quarterback market was sent into chaos when the Cleveland Browns gave Deshaun Watson a $230 million, fully guaranteed contract. It is unlikely that a fully guaranteed deal will be given again in the NFL. But who trails Watson in terms of full guarantees? The answer to that question is Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson, who signed a five-year, $245 million contract extension ahead of the 2022 season. Wilson had $124 million fully guaranteed at signing.

Given how poorly Wilson performed in his first season with the Broncos, Herbert and the other line of young quarterbacks in need of a new deal (Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts) will exceed the $124 million guaranteed.

In terms of annual salary amongst quarterbacks, current Green Bay Packers quarterback (for now) Aaron Rodgers is making $50.3 million per year, followed by Wilson ($48.5 million), Murray ($46.1 million), and Watson ($46 million). Given that, we’ll give Herbert $49 million in salary per year, and let’s say over six years.

As for guarantees, we mentioned it’s unlikely a player on a non-rookie contract will make hundreds of millions of dollars, 100 percent guaranteed at signing. But, looking at other deals, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott received 59.38 percent of his contract guaranteed, per Spotrac. So, let’s give Herbert 60 percent guaranteed at signing.

Without further ado, here’s what our predicted Herbert contract looks like:

Justin Herbert: Six years, $294 million, $176.4 million guaranteed at signing

Given the May 1 deadline for the fifth-year option, Chargers fans will be waiting to see if the team and Herbert can reach an agreement on a contract extension. If they do, the fanbase will eagerly be awaiting the final numbers.