Earnings last quarter may have been worst since early days of COVID

Total earnings for S&P 500 companies may have declined as much as 6.8% during the first quarter relative to the same period last year, according to estimates by financial data firm FactSet published last week. That would represent the largest drop for the index since the second quarter of 2020, when the early waves of COVID-19 infections and pandemic lockdowns wreaked havoc on U.S. GDP and shaved nearly 32% from total earnings.

Although that kind of drop is unlikely to happen again without a major global catastrophe, out of 106 companies listed on the S&P 500 that have already reported guidance for their performance in the months ahead, 78 have issued negative guidance, the highest number in four years, according to the FactSet report. March’s banking crisis has rocked confidence in the financial system and the economy, while recession forecasts are making the rounds once again. Analysts will be focused on the three banks—JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup—reporting earnings Friday before markets open as an indicator of how the rest of the season might go.

“The troubled banking sector kicks off earnings season in full this week, likely highlighting the unstable backdrop. The banks are usually among the first high profile companies to report earnings at the start of each season, which is particularly apt given the turmoil in this sector following the takeovers of Silicon Valley and Signature banks last month,” Jason Pride, CIO of private wealth at investment management firm Glenmede, told Fortune.

After a lucrative 2021 for profits, stocks slumped last year as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to reduce inflation, and 2023 could bring more pain to markets. The high-interest rate environment created by the Federal Reserve over the past year in a bid to reduce inflation has not done any favors to revenue streams at many companies. Tech firms were the hardest hit as investment and advertising spending shrunk rapidly, issues CEOs brought up when reporting earnings earlier this year. 

Large banks have also been dealt a blow, as despite strong consumer spending, troubled stock markets around the world have hurt investment. Revenues shrunk prolifically last year at banks with large investment management arms, such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and rocky capital markets continue to plague these institutions. GS and Morgan Stanley are also among the better-known U.S. banks with large M&A operations, which slowed significantly last year and are not expected to recover until the end of 2023 or 2024, according to S&P Global.

The banking crisis was a boon for large banks’ revenues, as institutions including Bank of America and JPMorgan simplified their sign-up processes last month to facilitate the stream of new depositors who were fleeing small banks at higher risk of collapse. But an influx of new deposits may not be enough to make up for the effects of stalling economic growth and tighter lending conditions this year, with earnings per share at the six largest U.S. banks projected to decline around 10% from the first quarter of 2022, Reuters reported Monday citing data from financial markets data provider Refinitiv.

“In some ways this quarter’s earnings season will probably be déjà vu all over again—earnings declines and cautious guidance, reductions in estimates, but better than feared. However, tightened financial conditions in the wake of last month’s banking turmoil and building evidence for a slowing economy has changed the economic backdrop this quarter,” Jeffrey Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, told Fortune.

But counterintuitively, the recent banking collapses could improve long-term outlooks somewhat, as the crisis may push the Fed to slow its pace of rate hikes. Some previously down assets have also rebounded in recent weeks, such as tech stocks, which are bouncing back, likely because of the waves of layoffs and commitment to efficiency and strong fundamentals tech CEOs have championed in recent months.

But this earnings season will not be bad news for all companies, and some sectors are expected to benefit from how consumers are spending their money, which for the past year has largely gone to services and experiences rather than goods. The hospitality, restaurant, and leisure sector is projected to report a profit of $3.8 billion, far exceeding its performance in the first quarter of 2022 when it lost $829 million, according to the FactSet report. 

But while there will likely be some bright spots this earnings season, analysts have also warned that the bank crisis will take longer to trickle through the economy. 

“Since recent bank failures happened in the last few weeks of the quarter, the full impact won’t register in first quarter reports,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note reported by the Financial Times Monday.