NHL playoff watch: Oilers-Avs a conference final preview?

With four days left of the 2022-23 NHL regular season, we know the identity of 13 out of 16 playoff teams. But quite a bit of specific seeding remains to be determined.

That process continues tonight via a 10-game schedule, highlighted by a doubleheader on ESPN.

In the first game, the past becomes the present to preview the future, as the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning reprise their first-round clash from the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs (7 p.m. ET, ESPN), a week before they’ll run it back in the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

In the late game, the Edmonton Oilers visit the defending Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) in a preview of a possible Western Conference finals showdown.

How likely is that pairing? As of now, the Oilers will host the Los Angeles Kings in the Pacific Division 2 vs. 3 matchup, before taking on the winner of the Vegas Golden Knights‘ series against the second Western wild card (currently the Winnipeg Jets). The Avs are leading the Central, and would take on the first wild card Seattle Kraken before moving on to challenge the winner of the Dallas Stars–Minnesota Wild series.

As mentioned, much of this could change before the tournament begins on Monday, but Money Puck gives these two teams the highest chances of any Western clubs of making the conference finals: 40.5% for the Oilers and 39.1% for the Avs.

Today’s clinching scenarios

1. The Florida Panthers will clinch a playoff spot if the Buffalo Sabres lose to the New Jersey Devils in any fashion and the Pittsburgh Penguins lose to the Chicago Blackhawks in regulation.

2. The Winnipeg Jets will earn a playoff berth if they get at least one point against the Minnesota Wild.

3. The Carolina Hurricanes clinch the Metro Division title if they beat the Detroit Red Wings in any fashion and the Devils lose to the Sabres in regulation.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Florida Panthers
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

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Tuesday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins, 7 p.m.
Detroit Red Wings at Carolina Hurricanes, 7 p.m.
Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Philadelphia Flyers, 7 p.m.
Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning, 7 p.m. (ESPN)
Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins, 7:30 p.m.
Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild, 8 p.m.
Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche, 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks, 10 p.m.
Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights, 10 p.m.

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Monday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Dallas Stars 6, Detroit Red Wings 1
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Florida Panthers 1 (OT)
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Ottawa Senators 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2
Washington Capitals 5, New York Islanders 2
Winnipeg Jets 6, San Jose Sharks 2
Minnesota Wild 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Nashville Predators 3, Calgary Flames 2 (SO)
Seattle Kraken 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Los Angeles Kings 3, Vancouver Canucks 0

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 131
Regulation wins: 52
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 134
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 107
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 110
Next game: @ TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 2
Points pace: 98
Next game: vs. TOR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 1
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 82%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ NJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 4%
Tragic number: 2

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 82
Next game: @ CAR (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 70
Next game: @ NYI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Metropolitan Division

Points: 109
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 112
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 108
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 111
Next game: vs. BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 107
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 1
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. MTL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 57%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. CHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 57%
Tragic number: 3

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 81
Next game: @ BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. CBJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 3
Points pace: 58
Next game: @ PHI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Central Division

Points: 104
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 3
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 104
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ STL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 102
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 2
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 95
Next game: @ MIN (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 94%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. MIN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 6%
Tragic number: 1

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. DAL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 70
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 17
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 57
Next game: @ PIT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Pacific Division

Points: 107
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 110
Next game: vs. SEA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 105
Regulation wins: 44
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 108
Next game: @ COL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 102
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 1
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. SJ (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 81
Next game: @ ANA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 62
Next game: @ CGY (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 60
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 56
Regulation wins: 17

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 23

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 31

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30