NHL playoff watch: Isles control their playoff destiny

There was a point quite recently when the New York Islanders seemed quite secure in a playoff position. Nothing was guaranteed, of course, but a wild card seemed a near given, and with Ilya Sorokin between the pipes, their destiny as a tough first-round out for the Boston Bruins or Carolina Hurricanes was all but locked in.

Thanks to a stretch where they’ve lost five of their past nine games — including to the lowly Columbus Blue Jackets — their position is more tenuous. Heading into Wednesday night’s contest with the Montreal Canadiens (7 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+), the club is most definitely in “must-win” mode, but a little bit of pressure was released when the Chicago Blackhawks shockingly defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins Tuesday night.

Both the Isles and Pens have one game remaining — the Pens’ regular-season closer is Thursday night against the Blue Jackets — and New York holds a one-point and four-regulation win edge in the standings. A win of any type Wednesday seals the deal for their postseason entry, as does an overtime or shootout loss (given their edge in regulation wins, the first tiebreaker). A loss in regulation opens the door for the Penguins to climb past them.

Currently, FiveThirtyEight gives the Isles an 86% chance at making the playoffs, while the Penguins’ is down to 14% after the loss to Chicago.

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Florida Panthers
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Colorado Avalanche vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Minnesota Wild
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

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Wednesday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders, 7 p.m.
Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
San Jose Sharks at Calgary Flames, 10 p.m. (TNT)

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Tuesday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Boston Bruins 5, Washington Capitals 2
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
New Jersey Devils 6, Buffalo Sabres 2
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 3 (OT)
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Winnipeg Jets 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Edmonton Oilers 2, Colorado Avalanche 1 (OT)
Vancouver Canucks 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Seattle Kraken 1

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 133
Regulation wins: 53
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 1
Points pace: 135
Next game: @ MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 109
Regulation wins: 41
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 110
Next game: @ NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 1
Points pace: 97
Next game: vs. DET (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 1
Points pace: 93
Next game: vs. CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. OTT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 86
Next game: @ BUF (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 81
Next game: @ TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 70
Next game: @ NYI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Metropolitan Division

Points: 111
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 1
Points pace: 112
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 110
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 111
Next game: @ WSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 107
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 1
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. TOR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. MTL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 86%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 91
Next game: @ CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 14%
Tragic number: 1

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 80
Next game: vs. NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 74
Next game: @ CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 58
Next game: vs. PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Central Division

Points: 105
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 2
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 104
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 2
Points pace: 107
Next game: @ STL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 102
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 1
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 95
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 96
Next game: @ COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. MIN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. DAL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 70
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 59
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Pacific Division

Points: 109
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 1
Points pace: 110
Next game: @ SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 107
Regulation wins: 44
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 1
Points pace: 108
Next game: vs. SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 102
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 1
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ ANA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 100
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 1
Points pace: 101
Next game: vs. VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. SJ (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 1
Points pace: 82
Next game: @ ARI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 16
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 62
Next game: @ CGY (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 13
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 2
Points pace: 60
Next game: vs. LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

P — Clinched Presidents’ Trophy; Y — Clinched division; X — Clinched playoff berth; E — Eliminated from playoff contention

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 57
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 13

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 16

Points: 68
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 20

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 27

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 31

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 29

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 31

Points: 91
Regulation wins: 30