Saturday, November 2, 2024
Sports

Which Bellator, Invicta, One and PFL champs could dethrone UFC titleholders?

The UFC is the biggest MMA promotion in the world, with the majority of the planet’s top fighters. One look at most pound-for-pound lists makes that clear.

However, there are a ton of talented fighters in other organizations. And over the past few years, many exceptional combat athletes have emerged as champions in those companies, whether it’s Bellator, PFL or One Championship.

Bellator has a pair of events this weekend in Honolulu. On Friday, women’s MMA pioneer Liz Carmouche defends her flyweight title against DeAnna Bennett. The Bellator Bantamweight World Grand Prix will conclude Saturday with a fight between interim champ Raufeon Stots and Patchy Mix. The victor will be awarded $1 million and get a shot at the winner of June’s bantamweight title bout between titleholder Sergio Pettis and Patricio “Pitbull” Freire, the featherweight champion who is moving down a weight class.

With all of this talent on the rise, Marc Raimondi breaks down the matchup and Ian Parker uses his betting insights to look at the best champions from outside the UFC and evaluate how they would stack up against their counterparts in the biggest MMA promotion.


Heavyweight: UFC champion Jon Jones vs. PFL champion Ante Delija

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Jon Jones celebrates after first-round submission of Ciryl Gane

Jon “Bones” Jones celebrates with his team after his first-round victory vs. Ciryl Gane to win the UFC heavyweight championship.

The matchup: Delija, a Mirko Cro Cop protégé, won the PFL heavyweight title last year and was a finalist in 2021. He’s injured and won’t compete in the PFL season this year, but he’s the best heavyweight the promotion has and one of the best not in the UFC. The consensus best, of course, is former UFC champ Francis Ngannou, who currently is without a promotion and not included here. Bellator heavyweight champion Ryan Bader also was a consideration; however, he was in the UFC and fought (and lost to) Jones before, so the comparison isn’t nearly as compelling.

Jones is formidable. He’s the most accomplished MMA fighter in history. But there are still many unknowns for him at heavyweight. His lone fight there was a win over Ciryl Gane in two minutes. It likely would be more challenging against Delija, who has knockout power and can hold his own in wrestling and grappling. It’s a bummer Delija didn’t get to fight in the PFL season this year, because his first opponent would have been UFC veteran and Jones sparring partner Yorgan De Castro. That could have been a compelling matchup that would have showed more about the Croatian and offered a glimpse into how he might stack up against “Bones.”

Best bets: Jones to win inside the distance. Over 1.5 rounds. Jones would be the betting favorite by at least -500 against Delija. Delija is a big heavyweight with outstanding skills and striking, while doing his best work from top position on the ground. However, he has never fought a top-10 heavyweight. Every area where Delija is good, Jones is better.

I would approach this bet in a couple of different ways. Considering how tactical Jones is, I don’t see him rushing in against Delija, who can counterstrike. I think Jones would take his time in the first round and eventually get the takedown and work from there.


Light heavyweight: UFC champion Jamahal Hill vs. Bellator champion Vadim Nemkov

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Jamahal Hill dominates main event to win light heavyweight title

Jamahal Hill defeats Glover Teixeira in front of the Brazilian crowd to win the UFC light heavyweight title.

The matchup: Nemkov has a legitimate claim to being the best light heavyweight in the world. He has beaten UFC veterans Corey Anderson, Phil Davis and Bader, all of whom were contenders when they left the UFC as free agents. On top of that, Nemkov fought former UFC light heavyweight champion Jiri Prochazka in 2015 in Rizin and was winning early before he retired following a 10-minute first round.

If he’s not the top 205-pound fighter, Nemkov is right up there and would give Hill all he could handle. Nemkov, a protégé of Fedor Emelianenko, is an excellent kickboxer who is also an international master of sport in combat sambo, which means his wrestling, judo and grappling are all pretty proficient. The Russian is arguably a more technical striker than Hill and potentially better on the ground, though Hill would have an edge in power and size.

The best bet: Over 3.5 rounds. This would be a very intriguing fight as I would be curious to see if Hill can prevent the takedowns of Nemkov and if Nemkov can handle the punching power of Hill. Since he is longer and has a wrestling edge, Nemkov would be a slight favorite. He tends to control the pace and utilize his wrestling to neutralize great strikers and bring them to his world, where he takes over. We have also seen Hill, who has fought more well-rounded fighters, is no longer walking through people as he once was when he first hopped into the UFC. In Nemkov’s past four fights, one ended in Round 3 due to a clashing of heads, but the other three went to Rounds 4 and 5. This would be a fun fight and go over 3.5 rounds.


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Israel Adesanya celebrates after highlight-reel KO of Alex Pereira

Joe Rogan, Daniel Cormier and Jon Anik are all in shock after Israel Adesanya’s brutal knockout of Alex Pereira.

The matchup: If there is one possible hole in Adesanya’s game, it’s wrestling. While the Nigerian-born New Zealand resident has done well keeping himself off the ground in most of his fights, his first UFC loss came against Jan Blachowicz at light heavyweight in a contest where Blachowicz was able to get Adesanya to the mat and keep him there. Eblen is smaller than Blachowicz, but he’s a significantly better technical wrestler as a former Division I starter at the University of Missouri, the alma mater of standout wrestlers Ben Askren, Michael Chandler and Tyron Woodley.

Eblen would likely present a problematic matchup for Adesanya. But, of course, Adesanya is a great kickboxer with reach, who has experience for years against the best middleweight fighters in the world. Eblen trains at American Top Team and is a primary training partner of Jorge Masvidal. It would be a fascinating stylistic clash. Adesanya has not faced a pure wrestler other than former Olympic silver medalist Yoel Romero, but Romero’s MMA game is not based foundationally on his wrestling.

The best bet: Adesanya by decision. Eblen came into MMA as a wrestler and has continued to evolve with his striking, making him a more difficult challenge for anyone. As good as Eblen is, and we have yet to see him come close to his potential, he would still be a sizeable underdog against one of the greatest middleweights ever. I would put the odds on Adesanya at -300 here. Adesanya has run through almost all of the UFC’s middleweight division, and outside of Eblen, I don’t see any middleweight in Bellator that would give him a challenge. If Eblen could wrestle in this fantasy matchup, he could steal rounds, but Adesanya’s takedown defense continues to improve, and he would have a huge advantage on the feet.


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What’s next for Leon Edwards?

Ryan Clark and Daniel Cormier discuss what could be next for Leon Edwards’ fighting career.

The matchup: This would be a fascinating encounter and might not look too dissimilar from Edwards’ battles with Kamaru Usman, from whom Edwards took the UFC title. Amosov is an oppressive wrestler and a four-time world combat sambo champion. But he also showed a well-roundedness to his game in February, beating wrestling standout Logan Storley. The Ukraine native is 27-0 and has rarely been threatened in 11 years as a pro. Amosov is a bit underrated by the masses, but he’s excellent.

Granted, Amosov has yet to fight anyone near the quality of opponents that Edwards has, which is a disadvantage for almost everyone outside the UFC. Edwards looked sensational and precise in beating Usman a second time last month. His southpaw kickboxing is exceptional and his ability to stop the takedown has significantly improved. He’s also a good offensive wrestler and grappler in his own right. Amosov would have the edge in those ground categories, but Edwards would be his toughest opponent on the feet. Fascinating bout.

The best bet: Amosov to win at underdog odds. Oddsmakers would make Edwards the favorite (-250) due to his back-to-back wins over Usman. However, I’d lean toward Amosov if I’m getting underdog odds. Amosov’s striking continues to improve; he would have the advantage in the wrestling and ground department and could push a pace that would wear on Edwards.


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Islam Makhachev outlasts Alexander Volkanovski in thriller to retain title

Islam Makhachev wins a thriller vs. Alexander Volkanovski to retain his UFC lightweight title at UFC 284.

The matchup: If someone were to sneak a camera into the gym at American Kickboxing Academy or in Dagestan perhaps, we could get some profound insight into how this fight would play out. Nurmagomedov, the cousin of all-time great Khabib, has been training with Makhachev his entire career and Makhachev is typically in the younger fighter’s corner. Makhachev has more seasoning at 31 years old and is simply one of the top fighters on the planet, if not the very best. Nurmagomedov is only 25 and not in his prime yet. If the two fought, Makhachev would likely win. He’s the more physical wrestler and grappler.

Nurmagomedov, though, could potentially overtake one of his mentors in the future. He’s better now than Makhachev and Khabib were at 25. His striking is more polished and flashier than that of his predecessors. And he’s from Dagestan and has trained with all these wrestlers forever, so obviously his wrestling and grappling are more than up to snuff, too. Seeing how well Nurmagomedov develops in Bellator will be a delight. On paper, there isn’t anyone in the lightweight division to match him. This could be a lengthy, entertaining reign.

The best bet: Makhachev to win inside the distance. In my opinion, Makhachev is the better striker and would have the edge on the ground. On top of that, the experience and level of competition favor Makhachev tremendously. Makhachev would undoubtedly be at least a -400 favorite, and I could see him finishing Nurmagomedov inside the distance.


Women’s featherweight: UFC champion Amanda Nunes vs. Bellator champion Cris Cyborg vs. PFL lightweight champion Larissa Pacheco

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Larissa Pacheco grinds out decision over Julia Budd

Larissa Pacheco grabs her first PFL win of the season with a majority-decision win over Julia Budd.

The matchup: No, this won’t be a triple-threat match. But all the above names deserve to be recognized among the best featherweight fighters in the world. Nunes, of course, is still the woman to beat. She owns a knockout win over Cyborg, and Pacheco technically has never won a title at featherweight. Pacheco was the PFL’s champ at women’s lightweight last year and is now competing in the featherweight division.

Cyborg treated that 2018 loss to Nunes like a bump in the road. She’s won six straight since then and has been the Bellator champion since 2020. It’s a shame there was never a Nunes vs. Cyborg rematch. It would have been arguably the biggest women’s fight in UFC history. Both are all-time greats.

Nunes vs. Cyborg best bet: Nunes to win. If these two were to engage in a rematch, Nunes would be the favorite as she rules the domain over two divisions, while Cyborg has fought lesser competition. It’s not to say that Cyborg wouldn’t have a chance, as she is unbelievably talented in all areas of the fight game. I just don’t see where she beats Nunes at this point.

Nunes vs. Pacheco best bet: Nunes inside the distance. Pacheco shocked the MMA world with her win over Kayla Harrison in the 2022 PFL lightweight final. She has since dropped a weight class to chase a second title in the PFL, where she took on former Bellator champ Julia Budd in this season’s first round. Pacheco looked less dominant but was still able to get the decision. Against Nunes, Pacheco would be at least a +300 underdog. As good as Pacheco is, Nunes is two steps ahead of her in everywhere the fight would go and has the better gas tank. The first round would be explosive, but I could see Nunes taking Pacheco down and getting it done afterward.


Men’s featherweight: UFC champion Alexander Volkanovski vs. Bellator champion Patricio “Pitbull” Freire

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Why DC thinks Volkanovski deserves top spot in pound-for-pound rankings

Daniel Cormier discusses why Alexander Volkanovski is still ranked No. 1 pound-for-pound despite a loss to Islam Makhachev.

The matchup: Pitbull is Bellator’s franchise fighter, the best in promotion history. He’s one of the best featherweights in the world and has been for years. On top of that, he successfully moved up to lightweight in 2019 and knocked out Michael Chandler to win Bellator’s championship in that division. Pitbull is as legit as it gets. He’s a three-time featherweight champion in Bellator, holds almost every major promotion record and will try to become a three-division champ in his next bout against bantamweight titlist Sergio Pettis in June.

The only issue with this prospective matchup — and it would be an absolute banger — is that the well-rounded Brazilian would have to go up against arguably the top pound-for-pound fighter in the world in Volkanovski. We saw how incredible the Aussie is in nearly beating the bigger Makhachev back in February at UFC 284. These two would match up well, though. Both are dangerous, technical strikers with good leg kicks and power in their hands. Both can grapple and wrestle. Perhaps more than any other bout on this list, Volkanovski vs. Pitbull would pit elite fighters against one another.

The best bet: Volkanovski to win. Out of all the dream matchups, this would be the one I would want to see most. Volkanovski would be the betting favorite, anywhere from -150 to -175. If those were the odds, I would bet on Volkanovski. As tremendous of a fighter as Pitbull is, I don’t see where he is better than Volkanovski.


Women’s bantamweight: UFC champion Amanda Nunes vs. Invicta champion Talita Bernado

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Flashback: Nunes gets revenge in dominant win vs. Pena at UFC 277

On July 30, 2022, Amanda Nunes dropped Julianna Pena multiple times in their main event bout at UFC 277.

The matchup: Nunes’ best division is bantamweight. She regained the title last summer after a stunning loss to Julianna Peña in December 2021, and the rematch was one-sided. Nunes and Peña will meet for a third time in the main event of UFC 289 on June 10 in Vancouver, Canada.

Bernardo has won four straight and earned the Invicta FC bantamweight title by beating Taneisha Tennant in January. But when Bernardo fought in the UFC, things didn’t go her way. She was 1-3 in the promotion, released after a knockout loss to Viviane Araujo, a smaller fighter whose best division is the one below at flyweight.

The best bets: Nunes inside the distance. Nunes by KO/TKO. Bernardo would be the biggest underdog on this entire list. As impressive as her win streak is, she wouldn’t last very long against Nunes, the GWOAT. From an odds standpoint, it would be hard to imagine Nunes anything less than -1500 or even higher.


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Demetrious Johnson regains ONE flyweight title with vicious KO

Demetrious Johnson knocks out Adriano Moraes with a vicious knee to the jaw to regain his ONE flyweight championship.

The matchup: It’s odd to imagine Johnson on this list as a bantamweight. But he does hold the One Championship title at 135 pounds. One has different division names for its weight classes than every other major MMA promotion. So, for the sake of this piece, Johnson is considered a bantamweight since he competes at 135, even though his achievements at flyweight make him one of the greatest fighters in the sport’s history.

This comparison is unfair. Johnson is supremely skilled in every area. He’s swift, agile and explosive. He’s about as close to a perfect fighter as you can get. There are no holes in his game. That said, Johnson would have a significant size disadvantage here against Sterling. As good as “Mighty Mouse” might be and still is, Sterling would present difficulty for him because of that difference and Sterling’s strength and excellent grappling. If Johnson were still competing at 125 pounds, it would be difficult not to pick him against anyone, even UFC champion Brandon Moreno. It’s incredible to think Johnson first won the UFC flyweight title as its inaugural champion 11 years ago.

The best bet: Johnson to win at underdog odds. Johnson would be the underdog here due to the size disadvantage mentioned by Raimondi, so give me Johnson. What he may give up in size, Johnson could make up in quickness, speed and fight IQ. We all know Sterling is a human backpack, but if he were unable to take the back of Johnson, Mighty Mouse’s striking could pick apart Sterling over five rounds.


Women’s flyweight: UFC champion Alexa Grasso vs. Bellator champion Liz Carmouche

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Alexa Grasso celebrates after massive upset of Valentina Shevchenko

Alexa Grasso celebrates in the Octagon after her stunning upset of Valentina Shevchenko at UFC 285.

The matchup: Carmouche is no stranger to the UFC. She competed in the promotion’s first women’s fight in 2013, a loss to Ronda Rousey. Carmouche was competitive in that fight, something she has been in almost every bout she has been in. She competed against former UFC women’s flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko in a lackluster unanimous decision loss in 2019 and was surprisingly released thereafter. Since then, she has won five straight in Bellator and knocked off Julianna Velasquez for that promotion’s women’s flyweight title. Carmouche is still one of the world’s best 125-pound women.

Grasso, meanwhile, stunned Shevchenko at UFC 285 last month, beating her and winning the title by fourth-round submission. Carmouche would be a challenging opponent for her stylistically. Grasso is a great boxer, and obviously her grappling skills have improved — she beat Shevchenko on the ground, after all. It’ll be interesting to see if Grasso can duplicate that feat in a likely rematch against Shevchenko.

The best bet: Grasso to win. Grasso would be the betting favorite in this matchup. Carmouche is an experienced veteran, but if she couldn’t get Grasso down and hold her there, Grasso’s striking would take over as the fight went on.


Men’s flyweight: UFC champion Brandon Moreno vs. One champion Jarred Brooks

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Brandon Moreno wins flyweight belt after doctor’s stoppage

After Deiveson Figueiredo can’t open his right eye, the fight is called and Brandon Moreno wins the UFC flyweight championship.

The matchup: Brooks should be a familiar name to UFC fans. He fought for the promotion in 2017 and 2018 before being cut, coming off a win, during a period when the UFC considered dissolving its flyweight division. That did not happen — and good thing for that. The UFC kept its 125-pound weight class, and from it emerged Moreno, the first Mexican-born champion in UFC history and an absolute fan favorite internationally. Not only is Moreno beloved, but he’s also one of the most exciting fighters on the roster.

Brooks, meanwhile, went to Japan’s Rizin and then One, where he is now the 125-pound champion. That division is called strawweight in One. Since being released by the UFC, Brooks is unbeaten in seven fights. Brooks is quite good, as his aggressive wrestling and grappling make him a tough matchup for most. Moreno is also good at both things and has emerged as a dangerous striker. Brooks had only two UFC losses; one was via split decision in a close fight against Moreno’s longtime rival, Deiveson Figueiredo. Moreno vs. Brooks would probably be more competitive than some would think.

The best bet: Moreno to win. Brooks would be a sizable underdog here. If he couldn’t get Moreno to the floor, Moreno would be able to push a very taxing pace and utilize his striking skills to neutralize the power of Brooks. Moreno would probably sit at -280 and might even be able to put Brooks away during a five-round contest.


Women’s strawweight: UFC champion Zhang Weili vs. One champion Angela Lee

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Zhang Weili recaptures strawweight title in UFC 281 co-main event

Zhang Weili forces Carla Esparza to tap to reclaim her strawweight title in the co-main event of UFC 281.

The matchup: Lee won the One Championship title at 115 pounds (atomweight in One) when she was just 19 years old. Fast-forward seven years, and Lee is still the titleholder with four successful title defenses. She made a few moves up to 125 pounds with not-so-favorable results, but there’s no doubt Lee is One’s queen at 115.

Zhang is a two-time UFC women’s strawweight champion, after beating Carla Esparza to regain the title last November. Zhang has two losses to Rose Namajunas in title fights, so she is not infallible. But she’s explosive, has knockout power and can finish on the ground with strength and technique. Lee is extremely durable and one of the most exciting fighters in the women’s 115-pound division. She would need to be against the dangerous Zhang. It would likely be a Fight of the Night candidate.

The best bet: Zhang to win. Based on strength of schedule, Zhang would be the betting favorite here at around -200. I would have my money on the more powerful Zhang, as Lee would struggle stylistically here.

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