2023 NFL win total predictions: Over/under picks for all 32 teams
Even though the 2023 NFL season is roughly four months away from kicking off, it’s never too early to speculate about win totals — or to bet on them. Our Sports Betting analysts have got you covered. Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Erin Dolan and Eric Moody offer their advice on whether you should take the over, under or stay away from each team’s total.
Jump to:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAX | KC | LAC | LAR | LV | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
AFC EAST
Over/under: 10.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 11.5
Prediction: Over 10.5 wins. I worry the Bills have missed their championship window and Josh Allen‘s injuries are mounting. However, this total feels too low, even as the division improves and they have a first-place schedule. Buffalo could conceivably win all nine home games, depending on when it hosts warm-weather teams such as Dallas, Miami, Jacksonville, Las Vegas and Tampa Bay. –– Doug Kezirian
Over/under: 9.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 10.7
Prediction: Stay Away. Coach Mike McDaniel seems like he has this club headed in the right direction. He has optimized his talent, but it’s also a tough division. It feels like Miami will be involved in several close games, and the variance of its season will likely hinge on the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. — Kezirian
Over/under: 9.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 9.3
Prediction: Over 9.5 wins. This comes down to quarterback Aaron Rodgers and whether you believe last year was an aberration or the beginning of the end. I think the thumb injury was legitimate and he is closer to his recent MVP form. Thus, it is a giant upgrade at the most important position and the Jets should be a force, given they also have an elite defense. — Kezirian
Over/under: 7.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 7.6
Prediction: Under 7.5 wins. Seven of New England’s eight wins last season came against a backup quarterback. The offense figures to improve with new coordinator Bill O’Brien, but this is still a limited roster and a schedule that might have the Patriots favored in only three games. — Kezirian
AFC NORTH
Over/under: 11.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 11.4
Prediction: Under 11.5 wins. The Bengals are obviously a talented team with a very high ceiling, but I like the under here because of my belief that the rest of the division will be improved in 2023. Cincinnati plays a first-place schedule that might be a little tougher on paper than the rest of the teams’ schedules in this division. Of course, the Bengals have a high ceiling, but I see more paths to the under than the over. — Tyler Fulghum
Over/under: 9.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 10.1
Prediction: Over 9.5 wins. QB Lamar Jackson is back and signed to a long-term deal. Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers join Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman to form a formidable pass-catching corps. J.K. Dobbins is now a year removed from his knee injury. As long as Baltimore can break the spell of being one of the most injured teams in the league, I love the betting value on the team for 2023. I’m playing the Ravens over this total and betting on them to win the division. — Fulghum
Over/under: 8.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 9
Prediction: Pass. Is QB Deshaun Watson as bad as he looked in 2022? Can he rediscover the elite form he showcased in Houston? I, frankly, do not know. That’s the reason I pass on this team. That variable is too difficult to predict. If Watson plays like he did in his past, this could be a very dangerous team. If he plays like he did in 2022, this team will finish last in the division. — Fulghum
Over/under: 8.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 9.1
Prediction: Over 8.5 wins. All coach Mike Tomlin does is finish .500 or better. Put it in stone. Slap a damn “Guaranteed” sticker on the box. If you read this column last year, you know my favorite season-long win total bet was the Steelers over 7.5 wins. Of course, Tomlin delivered nine wins with a rookie QB, a pretty poor offensive line and only 10 games with T.J. Watt. I expect the offense to be much more explosive this season, and any defense led by Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick is going to be better than average. I will always bet on Tomlin. — Fulghum
AFC SOUTH
Over/under: 9.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 8.8
Prediction: Stay away. On one hand the Jags exceeded expectations last year with nine regular-season wins. Their core remains intact and they play in a mediocre AFC South Division. On the other hand, I am concerned that Jacksonville is overhyped with a win total this high given it has won more than nine games only once over the past 15 years. There are more pros than cons for the Jags, but I’m not willing to bet over or under on the win total. — Erin Dolan
Over/under: 7.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 6.6
Prediction: Under 7.5 wins (-135). The Titans seem to be in rebuild mode. Tennessee didn’t sign any big-name free agents this offseason. It already made some cuts by releasing certain veterans. Plus, there are questions surrounding QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans catch a break by the mere fact that they are in the AFC South, but under 7.5 would be the play. — Dolan
Over/under: 6.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 6.4
Prediction: Over 6.5 wins (-125). The Colts had an underwhelming four-win season after Indy had a win total set at 10.5 before the 2022 campaign. The biggest plus is the Colts hiring Shane Steichen as their new head coach. Steichen was the Eagles’ offensive coordinator in 2022 and was the playcaller for one of the best offenses. The Colts have enough to get over 6.5 wins with Steichen expected to fix the offensive issues and the defense continuing to be middle of the pack. — Dolan
Over/under: 5.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 6.3
Prediction: Stay away. The Texans’ three wins last season was the worst mark in the league. All wins came against divisional opponents. Will Davis Mills or rookie C.J. Stroud be the starting quarterback? Can the Texans’ offense be any worse after averaging 17 points per game? Can the defense be any worse after allowing 379.5 total yards per game (ranked 30th)? Too many unanswered questions. — Dolan
AFC WEST
Over/under: 11.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 11.7
Prediction: Over 11.5 wins. Since Patrick Mahomes became the starting quarterback in Andy Reid’s offense, the Chiefs have been an offensive powerhouse, accumulating 12 or more wins in four out of five seasons. While the Chiefs’ defense isn’t perfect, it complements their high-powered offense. Their strategy is to gain an early lead and allow the defense to pressure opponents, similar to the Colts during Peyton Manning’s prime years. The Chiefs overcame a tough schedule last season to exceed 11.5 wins, and they’re expected to face a similarly challenging schedule this year. Kansas City should hit over this mark. — Eric Moody
Over/under: 9.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 9.9
Prediction: Over 9.5 wins. The Chargers are poised for a strong season in 2023. With the addition of Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator and a solid offensive line, quarterback Justin Herbert has the potential to thrive, especially with a healthy Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. The Chargers’ defense also has a lot of potential and can become a force under the guidance of head coach Brandon Staley and new defensive coordinator Derrick Ansley. All in all, Los Angeles is a strong contender for the AFC West title, and betting on it to surpass 9.5 wins is a wise choice. — Moody
Over/under number: 8.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 8.4
Prediction: Over 8.5 wins. The Broncos have the potential to exceed their win total this season with the addition of head coach Sean Payton, one of the NFL’s top offensive minds. If Payton can “fix” quarterback Russell Wilson, the Broncos could see significant improvement. Denver has also made impressive investments in its offensive line and has talented receiving playmakers. With a defense that could bounce back and finish as a top-10 unit in 2023, the Broncos have a strong chance of exceeding expectations under Payton’s leadership. — Moody
Over/under: 7.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 5.9
Prediction: Under 7.5 wins. While QB Jimmy Garoppolo might seem like a better fit for Josh McDaniels’ offensive scheme than Derek Carr, I recommend taking the under. Despite trading away tight end Darren Waller, the Raiders did sign Jakobi Meyers during free agency and still boast one of the top receivers in the league in Davante Adams. They also added Tyree Wilson in the draft, although it remains to be seen how much of an impact he’ll have in his rookie season. The Raiders did an excellent job during free agency and the draft of bolstering their defensive talent. While there is potential here, it’s unlikely that Las Vegas will see a significant defensive improvement until late in the season. — Moody
NFC EAST
Over/under: 10.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 11
Prediction: Over 10.5 wins (-165). Although this line continues to get more steam, there is no case to bet an under on a team that has had an impressive offseason. The Eagles signed QB Jalen Hurts to a long-term deal and essentially “won” the 2023 NFL draft. The NFC is not nearly a monster like the AFC, and the Eagles should be winning left and right with the offense and defense that is intact. — Dolan
Over/under: 9.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 10.7
Prediction: Over 9.5 wins (-150). QB Dak Prescott played in only 12 regular-season games last season because of injury, but Dallas still logged back-to-back 12-win regular seasons. The NFC East schedule will not be a pushover like it was last year, but the Cowboys should hit over this mark with a revamped coaching staff and roster. — Dolan
Over/under: 8.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 7.5
Prediction: Stay away. In Brian Daboll’s first season as head coach, he led the Giants to their first playoff win in more than 10 years. The Giants’ surprising nine wins last season also saw the Cowboys steal two one-score games and the Commanders account for a tie. The 2023 schedule could really test this team or the Giants could surprise bettors again. Either way, I want no part of this. — Dolan
Over/under: 7.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 5.4
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-170). I don’t like to advise futures bets that are this juicy, but I do believe the Commanders will go under. Second-year quarterback Sam Howell could be the Commanders’ starter, as Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke moved along after the season. While the Commanders posted eight wins last season, Howell would lead an offense that averaged 18.9 points per game. — Dolan
NFC NORTH
Over/under: 9.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 8
Prediction: Under 9.5 wins. I know people are excited about the trajectory of this team, and it is justified. The Lions have a lot of young talent on this team; however, they are still the Lions — a franchise that has little experience or success realizing its potential over the years. Should they really be the division favorites? I’m not so sure. Their draft process was flawed. WR Jameson Williams is suspended the first six games of the season. I will not be betting into the narrative that this team is the best in the division. — Fulghum
Over/under: 8.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 9.2
Prediction: Pass. I actually think this is the team that should be favored to win this division, but it’s not like I stand behind a team quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins that confidently. I’ll pass on betting this team even though I don’t see a wide delta between its ceiling and floor. I think this is a 7-to-10-win team this season, so too tight to play with any conviction. — Fulghum
Over/under: 7.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 7.7
Prediction: Over 7.5 wins. This is my favorite team to bet in the division. I am very bullish on the Bears in 2023 and beyond. It starts with QB Justin Fields, who I think is a certified star in the making. GM Ryan Poles has done a very good job fortifying the talent around him on offense, so I think he takes a big leap this season in his development. The defense is still a work in progress, so I’m expecting this team to be involved in a lot of entertaining shootouts. Bottom line: I am betting big on Fields and the Bears taking a significant leap. — Fulghum
Over/under: 7.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 7.6
Prediction: Under 7.5 wins. I just haven’t seen enough from QB Jordan Love in his career to have any confidence that he can capably replace Aaron Rodgers. I think this franchise is in for a pretty big shock when it realizes how many warts he covered up and overcame. This offense is likely to take a major step back, and based on my belief around the other teams in this division, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Green Bay actually finish fourth in the North this season. — Fulghum
NFC SOUTH
Over/under: 9.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 9.7
Prediction: Over 9.5 wins. I had high hopes in 2022, and the Saints completely whiffed in some critical games. I believe in regression, and Derek Carr should be a considerable upgrade over an aging and limited Andy Dalton. With a weak schedule, the table is set for a solid season. — Kezirian
Over/under: 8.0
Mike Clay’s projection: 8.8
Prediction: Under 8.0 wins. They had some fun moments in 2022, but I cannot get past an uninspiring Desmond Ridder projected as the starting quarterback. The offense does have playmakers, including No. 8 overall draft pick Bijan Robinson, and Atlanta did upgrade the defense this offseason, but I do not see a winning record, even in what figures to be the league’s worst division. — Kezirian
Over/under: 7.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 7.4
Prediction: Under 7.5 wins. I am a Frank Reich believer, but what else is there to like? I think Carolina downgrades at quarterback with an undersized Bryce Young. Even in a weak division, the Panthers could compete for the league’s worst record. — Kezirian
Over/under: 6.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 6.8
Prediction: Over 6.5 wins. In my eyes, this team actually has a ceiling of double-digit wins. After a season mauled with injuries, this roster has plenty of talent. QB Baker Mayfield showed with the Rams that he can be adequate when he plays within himself. — Kezirian
NFC WEST
Over/under number: 11.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 10.7
Prediction: Stay away. With the highest season win total among NFC teams, it’s hard to overlook the talent on the 49ers’ roster and their impressive run to the NFC Championship Game last season. However, it’s worth noting that they play in the highly competitive NFC West Division. Additionally, there is some uncertainty at quarterback for the 49ers, as it remains to be seen whether Brock Purdy or Trey Lance will be the starter in Week 1. These are some of the reasons why betting on their season win total is difficult right now. — Eric Moody
Over/under number: 8.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 9.4
Prediction: Over 8.5 wins. Last season, Seattle surpassed expectations without Russell Wilson, winning nine games with Geno Smith, who was named Comeback Player of the Year. Looking ahead to 2023, the Seahawks’ offense remains largely unchanged and has added two promising rookies in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet. Moreover, Seattle has invested significantly in improving its defense during the offseason. Given all these factors, it’s hard to ignore that the 8.5-game projection feels low for a team that could have easily won more than nine games in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year. — Moody
Over/under number: 5.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 6
Prediction: Under 5.5 wins. Following a tumultuous season that included a seven-game losing streak, the Cardinals finished with a subpar 4-13 record. In an attempt to turn things around, Arizona has hired a new head coach and general manager to lead the way. However, the Cardinals are facing a period of uncertainty, with both Kyler Murray‘s late-season injury and rumors of a potential DeAndre Hopkins trade hanging over their heads. While the team’s recent strong draft bodes well for the future, the upcoming season is likely to present significant challenges, especially in the highly competitive NFC West. Bet the under. — Moody
Over/under number: 7.5
Mike Clay’s projection: 4.9
Prediction: Under 7.5 wins. Last season, the Rams struggled with a lack of depth and injuries to key players such as Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and members of their offensive and defensive lines. With a limited number of draft picks, a coach who may retire soon and an aging quarterback, the Rams are facing some serious challenges. In addition, their defense wasn’t great last season and is likely to take a step back this season. Even if the offense improves with Stafford and Kupp back, the Rams’ roster is one of the weakest in the league. — Moody
