Even advanced stats can’t bring Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes down

May 31, 2023 ndowd

Patrick Mahomes is the most dominant NFL quarterback is just about every measurable category.

Every consensus ranking would tell you Patrick Mahomes is the best QB working today. The 27-year-old led the NFL in both passing yards (5,280) and passing touchdowns (41) last season. In five years as the Chiefs‘ starting quarterback, Mahomes has already led the NFL in touchdowns twice. Oh, and he won two Super Bowls.

It feels like nothing can knock Mahomes off his pedestal at this point. He’s starting to exude that Brady-esque sense of inevitability. His arm talent is ridiculous. He can scramble with the best of them. Leave him hobbled by an ankle injury in the playoffs… and he’ll still gut his way to a Super Bowl victory over the extremely loaded Eagles.

Even the advanced stats paint Mahomes as the best passer in football… maybe ever.

Advanced numbers paint Patrick Mahomes as best passer in NFL

According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Mahomes has been the most productive QB in the NFL since taking the Chiefs’ starting job in 2018. Over that span, Mahomes has accumulated three of the top five all-time seasons by passing EPA.

Patrick Mahomes has been the most productive QB in the NFL since taking over as starter in 2018.

Mahomes has generated 3 of the top 5 seasons by passing EPA of the NGS era, including the single-season record (+185.8 EPA) in his first season as starter in 2018.#ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/lY1Bc5G07S

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) May 30, 2023

Mahomes is in rare air here, rivaled only by MVP seasons from Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers.

Here’s a general breakdown of EPA (Expected Points Added) from The 33rd Team:

Expected Points Added, commonly referred to as EPA, is a measure of how well a team performs relative to expectation. For example, if a team starts a drive on the 50-yard line, its expected points to start the drive would be about 2.5. If the team ends the drive with a field goal, thus gaining 3 points, its EPA for that drive would be found by subtracting its expected points from how many points it actually gained, 3 – 2.5 or 0.5 EPA.

There may not be a more perfect stat to encapsulate the wonders of watching Patrick Mahomes. There’s no player in the league better at making something out of nothing. His ability to salvage broken plays and teleport the ball 60 yards downfield without a moment’s notice is what makes Mahomes so great. He’s a big-play threat even when the odds are stacked against him.

The Chiefs will enter next season at Super Bowl favorites. For all we know, they’ll enter the next five seasons as Super Bowl favorites. Again, it’s very Brady-esque. The Chiefs managed to extend Travis Kelce and keep all of Mahomes’ primary offensive weapons intact, plus the defense was huge down the stretch in the playoffs. There just aren’t many teams capable of hanging with the healthy (or even half-healthy) Chiefs, and it all starts with Mahomes.

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