Early predictions for the rest of the tennis season

The clay season officially came to an end over the weekend, with Iga Swiatek and Novak Djokovic walking away with the top prizes and the No. 1 rankings at the French Open.

It was a historical fortnight for both players. With her fiercely contested win over Karolina Muchova, the 22-year-old Swiatek became the youngest player since Serena Williams in 2002 to win her fourth major title and the third woman in the Open Era to have a 4-0 record in Grand Slam finals. And for Djokovic, it was certainly one for the record books. Earning his 23rd major title with a straight-sets victory over Casper Ruud, he broke the tie with Rafael Nadal for most ever by a male player, and he is now tied with Williams for the most by any player in the Open era.

Having won the Australian Open to start the season, Djokovic now remains in contention for the elusive Calendar Slam. If he were to win one more Grand Slam title this season, he would match Margaret Court’s long-standing record for the most in the history of the sport. If he completes the season sweep, the record will be his alone.

Of course, there are two majors left to be played — on two different surfaces — and anything is possible for both the men and the women. So who, in addition to Djokovic and Swiatek, do you need to keep an eye on at Wimbledon and the US Open and their respective lead-in events? Here are some names you need to know about and some early predictions.

Wimbledon

July 3-16, 2023
Defending champions: Novak Djokovic and Elena Rybakina

Men: It’s hard to see anyone beating Djokovic at his favorite tournament with so much on the line. Many had counted him out ahead of his semifinal match against Carlos Alcaraz at the French Open, and he showed — for the umpteenth time — he is still the best player in the game, especially when it comes to best-of-five set matches. A seven-time champion at the All England Club, Djokovic has won the past four titles and is virtually unstoppable on the surface. Despite not playing in a single lead-in grass tournament prior to Wimbledon in 2022, he was pushed to a decider just once (against Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals) during his run to the final. While most of his current rivals, especially with the continued absence of Nadal, are significantly younger, his experience on grass could serve as the difference-maker yet again.

But still, Djokovic does have to win seven matches in order to hoist the trophy, and there are players who are ready to do whatever they can to step up to the challenge. Nick Kyrgios had the best tournament of his roller-coaster career in 2022 and even won the first set in the final against Djokovic. The 28-year-old has been sidelined for the entirety of the 2023 season following knee surgery but is slated to make his return this week in Stuttgart. It’s hard to know what to expect from him after such a long layoff, but if anyone is capable of surprise and incredible moments on the court, it’s Kyrgios.

Also looking to replicate his 2022 success on the surface, and wasting no time by playing at Stuttgart, is Taylor Fritz. The American won the title at Eastbourne in 2022 and then reached his first major quarterfinal at Wimbledon before falling in a heartbreaking fifth-set tiebreak to Nadal. He will be seeking even more this time around at the All England Club. Cameron Norrie also had a major breakthrough at the event in 2022 and reached his first major semifinal, ultimately losing to Djokovic in four sets. The pressure is always sky high on the British players at their home Slam, but Norrie will certainly be looking to build on what he started last year, and he will have the support of the crowd firmly on his side.

Of course, we can’t forget Alcaraz here. Despite very limited experience on grass — he’s played just twice at Wimbledon and has never played in any warm-up event — he’s repeatedly proved just how talented he is, no matter the surface. He made the second round in his debut at the event in 2021, and the fourth round in 2022, and will likely go even further this year.

Projected winner: Djokovic. Unless Roger Federer circa 2003-2007 finds a time machine, it seems doubtful anyone will be able to upset Djokovic’s streak at the tournament.

Women: Unlike on the men’s side, there are a number of women who could contend for the title. Starting, of course, with Swiatek, who has momentum on her side and is clearly the woman to beat at every tournament she plays. But her experience on the surface is limited and she’s never advanced past the fourth round at Wimbledon. So, despite her ranking and four shiny major trophies, she’s somewhat of a wild card.

Rybakina, who rose to a career-high No. 3 on Monday, is the defending champion and has only gotten better since her breakthrough victory, with a finals appearance at the Australian Open and 1000-level titles this year at Indian Wells and the Italian Open. She had to withdraw from the French Open ahead of her third-round match because of illness but should be back to full health for the grass season.

Ons Jabeur, the 2022 finalist, will be looking to finish what she started at the All England Club and for her first Grand Slam title. Jabeur earned the Berlin Open trophy on grass last season and is one of the most skilled players on the surface on tour. Jabeur has spent much of the year dealing with injuries, but she returned to form in Paris and reached the quarterfinals. Assuming she stays healthy, she could be a woman on a mission.

Muchova might also be looking for redemption after coming oh-so-close at Roland Garros. Now ranked a career high of No. 16, Muchova has reached the Wimbledon quarterfinals twice (in just three main draw appearances). She’s more than capable of a deep run.

Aryna Sabalenka, the surging world No. 2 who almost knocked Swiatek out of the top ranking in Paris, could also be a factor. She won her first Grand Slam title at the Australian Open in January and then reached the semifinals at the French Open. A 2021 Wimbledon semifinalist who wasn’t able to play last year as a Belarusian, she said she was excited about being able to return to the tournament. “I really missed last year Wimbledon, and yeah, [I] just can’t wait to come back and show my best tennis,” she said in Paris.

And then there’s Coco Gauff. The 19-year-old had her star turn at the tournament in 2019 and remains a beloved fan favorite. She has reached the fourth round twice and is coming off a quarterfinal appearance at the French Open. She thrives off of the energy on the show courts at the All England Club and is comfortable on the surface. A Grand Slam title seems all but inevitable and it doesn’t seem far-fetched to think it could happen at Wimbledon.

Projected winner: Jabeur. Her variety-filled game is perfectly suited for the surface, and now, unlike in the 2022 final, she has the experience of playing high-pressure matches as well.

US Open

Aug. 28-Sept. 10, 2023
Defending champions: Alcaraz and Swiatek

Men: Let’s assume here that Djokovic wins Wimbledon and enters the US Open still in contention for the Calendar Slam, just as he did in 2021. He rarely falters under pressure but seemed to struggle with the weight of expectations two years ago. With the opportunity during that run for the Golden Slam — achieved by only Steffi Graf in 1988 — Djokovic finished off the podium in fourth place in Tokyo and then arrived in New York facing countless questions and attention about the history he was still trying to achieve. He lost in staggering fashion in the final to Daniil Medvedev in straight sets.

As he showed then, and as Williams did in 2015, winning all four Slam titles in one year is tough. Not to mention, the US Open has been where Djokovic has had the most trouble over the past few years. At least by his standards, that is. He was barred from entering the United States in 2022 because of his unvaccinated status and hasn’t won the title since 2018. Can he do it this time around? Of course. But it’s not going to be easy.

Medvedev will be one such player standing in his way. The current world No. 3 and reigning Miami champion loves New York, and the feeling is mutual. A crowd favorite since his first final run in 2019, Medvedev has played the best tennis of his career at the tournament and during the hard-court summer series. He was upset in the fourth round last year by Kyrgios, but a further run seems more than likely in 2023. Kyrgios, a fellow fan favorite, will also be one to watch if he remains healthy. After his Wimbledon success and following back-to-back wins over Medvedev last season — at the US Open and a few weeks earlier at the Canadian Open — he looked poised for big things in New York but then fell in the quarterfinals.

Kyrgios was unable to build off of his first major final appearance in 2022, but Ruud did. The Norwegian player lost in the 2022 French Open final but reached yet another Slam title match at the US Open just months later. He will undoubtedly be hoping that pattern repeats itself this year but with an even better result in 2023.

Ruud lost in the 2022 final to Alcaraz, who ascended to world No. 1 with his first major victory and became the heir apparent to the tennis throne. The 20-year-old has struggled with injuries this season, and suffered debilitating cramps during his semifinal loss in Paris to Djokovic, but he will likely do everything he can to be in peak form in time to defend his title at the US Open. While he was sidelined from playing the Australian Open to start the year, he has done pretty well on the hard court already this year. He won the title at Indian Wells in March and then reached the semifinals in Miami.

Every match during Alcaraz’s title run in 2022 was must-see TV, but two matches were downright legendary: the quarterfinal test against Sinner and during the semifinals against Frances Tiafoe. Both went five sets. Sinner, who reached the final in Miami and the semifinals at Indian Wells, and Tiafoe, a fellow Indian Wells semifinalist, should be considered serious contenders for the year’s final Slam.

Following Tiafoe’s loss last year, he made a promise to the crowd at Arthur Ashe Stadium: “I’m gonna come back and I will win this thing one day.” As no American man has won the title since 2003, he will be looking to make some history of his own this September and will certainly have almost everyone in attendance on his side.

Projected winner: Alcaraz. When healthy, Alcaraz can beat anyone on hard court. He admitted to being nervous playing against Djokovic on such a big stage at Roland Garros, but he will be able to use that experience, and know how to handle those feelings, if he were to face him at the US Open.

Women: As evidenced in recent years by Emma Raducanu (2021) and Bianca Andreescu (2019), surprise champions are almost expected at the US Open. As the final major of the year and with the heavily criticized use of different balls for men and women, some players struggle and others capitalize. The results can be all over the place.

Swiatek was one of the loudest voices last year about the balls ahead of the tournament. She arrived with a 2-2 record in Toronto and Cincinnati, and yet found a way to win. While she had won three hard-court 1000-level tournaments (Qatar, Indian Wells and Miami) earlier in the season, the triumph marked her official shedding of the clay-court specialist label. She didn’t have the same success this spring on hard court, and no woman has won back-to-back titles at the event since Serena Williams (2012-2014), but if anyone can do that right now, it has to be Swiatek.

Swiatek defeated Jabeur in the 2022 final, and the Tunisian player will have no shortage of motivation by season’s end, especially if she is unable to win at Wimbledon. She’s made no secret of her desire for a Grand Slam victory and knows what it takes to reach the end in New York.

In addition to the title in Melbourne, Sabalenka had great success on hard court during the opening portion of the season. She won in Adelaide and reached the final at Indian Wells. She has reached the semifinals during her past two appearances at the US Open, and now, with a major title under her belt, she will be looking to extend her trip in New York. Sabalenka faced Rybakina in the finals at the Australian Open and Indian Wells, and Rybakina has proved to be a formidable foe on the surface. She was also the runner-up in Miami.

With the exception of Swiatek, there was perhaps no one who had more success on the surface last summer than Caroline Garcia. She won the 1000-level Canadian Open, as well as the year-end WTA Finals, and reached the US Open semifinals. She hasn’t had the same results so far this year, on any surface, but didn’t heat up in 2022 until the end of the season, so a similar run this year seems plausible.

With the very loud American crowd behind them, Gauff and Jessica Pegula — both 2022 quarterfinalists — could also be contenders for the top prize. Pegula, the top-ranked American at No. 5, won the biggest title of her career on the surface in October at 1000-level Guadalajara and had a final appearance at Qatar in February.

And because we’re talking about the US Open where anything is possible, other names to keep an eye on include 2019 semifinalist Elina Svitolina, who made a remarkable quarterfinal run at the French Open in her first major back since maternity leave; three-time US Open finalist Victoria Azarenka, who reached the semifinals at the Australian Open in January; and Beatriz Haddad Maia, who had her major breakthrough in Paris with a semifinal run and is playing the best tennis of her career.

Projected winner: Swiatek. Prior to Saturday, she had never been tested before in a major final, but now that she has, and proved to herself just how capable she is. She remains the favorite at the US Open.