Are investors bored of Bitcoin? Its 90-day volatility is now the lowest since 2016

August 17, 2023 ndowd

Crypto is known for volatile swings—turning a thousand-dollar investment into $10,000 in a day, if not hours—and for many investors that was the appeal.

But since June—some could argue since March—top dog Bitcoin has been kind of a bore. The cryptocurrency, which makes up just under half of the overall market, has been stalled around the $30,000 mark for months. On Thursday, at time of publication, the coin had dropped about 2.5% over 24 hours, settling near $28,400.

The most popular cryptocurrency’s 90-day volatility is at its lowest since 2016, Bloomberg reported, and with no end in sight to the stability, investors are getting tired of it, according to a report by blockchain data company Glassnode.

“With this low volatility comes apathy and exhaustion, which often entails a relatively weak influx of demand,” Glassnode wrote.

Historically, crypto could generate double-digit returns in the short term, but recently staid TradFi markets have outpaced the top digital currency. From June 20, when Bitcoin became range-bound around $30,000, it has returned 0.3%, meanwhile the S&P 500 has increased 0.6%. (Over the same period, Ether, the second-most-popular cryptocurrency, is down 0.5%.) Elsewhere, global government bond yields are at their highest in 15 years, according to Bloomberg.

But while active traders may be looking elsewhere for alpha—the supply of Bitcoin held by short-term investors is at a multiyear low—some long-term investors are still snapping it up, which could be a positive, according to the Glassnode report.

“This suggests that conviction of Bitcoin investors does remain impressively high, and very few are willing to liquidate their holdings,” the report read.

A “fresh cycle” for crypto could be fueled, among other things, by new stablecoin supply, according to analysts at Bernstein, led by the managing director and senior analyst of its global digital assets division, Gautam Chhugan.

In a Monday report, the analysts wrote that Bernstein expects $2.8 trillion of new stablecoins to be allocated toward digital assets over the next five years as the market becomes more regulated. The overall market cap of stablecoins is currently $124 Billion, which is about 10.5% of the total crypto market cap, according to CoinGecko.

The report singles out PayPal’s newly launched stablecoin as evidence that cryptocurrencies have room to grow, including as a tool for cross-border remittances, potentially adding immense value for corporations worldwide. That is, if Congress gives the coins a boost with new legislation, the analysts added.

“The new proposed stablecoin act is being progressed relatively fast, and in the midst of a global digital currency race, this will become a national priority in the U.S to extend the dollar’s dominance in the digital economy,” the report read.

Another possible boon for crypto is the impending decision on Grayscale’s lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission over whether it should be allowed to create a spot Bitcoin ETF. Any judgment in favor of Grayscale has the potential to super-charge crypto prices, as it would open a new avenue for investors to put money into the world’s most popular cryptocurrency.

For its part, Grayscale appears optimistic. On Thursday, the company tweeted out a link to an open position in its ETF department.