Who will be the next top prospect called up?
If it feels like there has been an influx of top-tier prospect talent into the majors in the past week, you’re not mistaken. In fact, there’s a logical reason behind it.
Among the less-discussed rule changes born from the March 2022 labor agreement was an incentive program for teams that advance their top prospects to the majors more quickly. Termed the Prospect Promotion Incentive, players who appear on at least two top-100 prospect lists published by ESPN, Baseball America or MLB Pipeline entering the given year, remain rookie-eligible and accrue at least 172 days on an active roster in their rookie year can earn their teams additional draft picks by either winning the Rookie of the Year award or finishing among the top three in the MVP or Cy Young balloting prior to their becoming eligible for arbitration. Julio Rodriguez, for a notable example, met these criteria during his 2022 Rookie of the Year season, earning the Seattle Mariners a bonus pick in July’s draft.
The significance is that this past Friday marked 44 days remaining in the 2023 regular season, which is an important date in that it is one less than one of the qualifications for rookie eligibility. Rookie of the Year eligibility requires a maximum of 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched or 45 active days on a roster at the onset of the eligible season, so with the passing of that 45-day threshold on Thursday, Aug. 17, teams can now recall prospects — those who have never yet appeared on a big-league roster, that is — without worry of expiring that eligibility. (Of course, they’ll still need to ensure that the player in question fails to reach either 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched.)
That’s why we saw prospects Nolan Schanuel and Masyn Wynn recalled this past Friday, Noelvi Marte on Saturday and Kyle Harrison and Everson Pereira on Tuesday. And they will probably not be the final highly ranked prospects who debut before 2023 ends.
All five rookies should see decent-if-not-large roles for their teams down the stretch, and all five were widely available in fantasy leagues at the time of their debuts, providing us with prime opportunity. Schanuel has led off for the Los Angeles Angels in each of his four games since recalled, Winn has started five in a row for the St. Louis Cardinals, Marte has started back-to-back games for the Cincinnati Reds, Harrison moved right into the San Francisco Giants’ rotation and Pereira was the New York Yankees’ left fielder and No. 7 hitter on Tuesday. Every one of them has been added in at least 1.9% of ESPN leagues in the past seven days alone.
Granted, none of them might meet the threshold of everyday fantasy relevance in ESPN standard leagues, with the nine starting lineup spots, but even in those, you should be cycling any positions you can around players’ off-days, premium matchups and/or doubleheader days. Any could be of help, and any could quickly emerge as mixed league-relevant players. Schanuel’s advanced plate approach could be a boon to points-league or sabermetric fantasy managers, Wynn’s speed and contact ability might become roto-relevant, Marte has upside in terms of power and speed that might transcend all league formats, Harrison can deliver the K’s if the Giants afford him large enough pitch counts, and Pereira is another power/speed type who could click in that homer-friendly Yankees ballpark.
Just be mindful of those other two rookie-eligibility thresholds. An average hitter has accrued 3.6 at-bats per time in the starting lineup this season, and with teams averaging 36 games remaining, that comes to 129 at-bats on average for an everyday player. An average starting pitcher has averaged 5.2 innings, which comes to 37 on average for any member of a regular five-man rotation. Teams will be mindful of these thresholds, knowing the value of those bonus draft picks, so you can be sure that they’ll keep these prospects — and any other prospective 2024 rookie-eligibles — under those numbers. Schanuel, for example, is already on pace for 150 at-bats if slotted leadoff for every remaining game.
Beyond these five, who else, among prospects most likely to be immediately fantasy-relevant, might we still see?
Ceddanne Rafaela, OF, Boston Red Sox: Passed over for promotion as the injured Jarren Duran’s replacement on Tuesday, with Wilyer Abreu instead getting the call, Rafaela has certainly proven himself deserving since his June 28 promotion to Triple-A Worcester. Rafaela has batted .318/.373/.636 with 13 home runs while hitting safely in all but five of his 43 games there, though he’s strangely only 5-of-10 on his stolen base attempts. He’s a potentially elite defender across multiple positions with decent enough pop to make an immediate impact. Considering the Red Sox’s increasingly dire standing five games back in the wild-card race, they could use a push from a prospect like Rafaela in the near future, perhaps at the time rosters expand from 26 to 28 players on Sept. 1. He’s the one from this list closest to universal-add status, should he get the call.
Austin Wells, C, New York Yankees: The other prospect heavily rumored to be joining Pereira in promotion — their coincidental absences this past Thursday fueled chatter in advance of that key Friday date — Wells could provide a sizable offensive upgrade for the Yankees behind the plate, and yes, that’s even accounting for what aren’t eye-popping batting average (.238), OPS (.774) or strikeout rate (23.3%) numbers. Kyle Higashioka has a 79 OPS+ in his three years as a regular member of the Yankee roster, while Ben Rortvedt’s career .158 batting average and 45 OPS+ through his first 61 big-league games are historically bad. Wells’ defense remains a work in progress, which is probably the No. 1 reason he’s not already in the majors. Still, with the Yankees in a swoon, losers of nine straight to fall 10½ games back in the wild-card race, it’d behoove them to get an extended look at him now. Role-wise, Wells’ (and Pereira’s) situation has a lot of the look of the 2016-stretch-run Gary Sanchez/Aaron Judge audition. Wells doesn’t necessarily have Sanchez’s prospective fantasy impact (nor does Pereira have Judge’s), but he’s a catcher-eligible player who can hit.
Heston Kjerstad, OF, Baltimore Orioles: His is a tougher case, being that he’s not on the 40-man roster while Colten Cowser is, but Cowser struggled mightily during his first taste of the majors and the Orioles, who fancy themselves title contenders, need production from any of their recalls. Kjerstad caught my eye as the runner-up in the Arizona Fall League’s Home Run Derby last November, which capped what was a huge rebound performance in the league, and he has been comparably excellent at both the Double- and Triple-A levels this season, batting a combined .308/.380/.547 with 19 home runs in 104 games. If the Orioles are in a pinch and give Kjerstad the call, he’d warrant an immediate add hitting in that productive lineup.
Ronny Mauricio, SS, New York Mets: Let’s not forget that he gave the Mets something to think about as far as building their Opening Day roster during a solid spring training, and Mauricio has been solid since for Triple-A Syracuse, batting .285/.339/.490 with 20 home runs and 21 stolen bases in 109 games. Most importantly, the team has dabbled with him at both second base and in left field, either of which could be his eventual big-league position. Mauricio’s skills are most attractive to roto players, so if the Mets decide to give him a September cup of coffee, be ready to pounce.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Chicago Cubs: Though he has only 17 games’ experience at the Triple-A level, having been promoted on only Aug. 1, he has hit safely in each of his past 15 games there and continues to flash his plus defense in center field. The Cubs certainly fancy elite defense, but haven’t gotten those high-caliber metrics from their outfielders, so Crow-Armstrong could play an important part for them as either a part-timer and defensive replacement or a flat-out substitute for Seiya Suzuki in right field. Crow-Armstrong’s best immediate asset (besides his defense, which is largely not fantasy-relevant) is his speed, but he’s capable enough with the bat to be worth a universal flier if promoted into a seemingly regular role.
