2023 NFL betting: Loza and Dopp's Week 5 props that pop
There was less popping and more busting of the props in Week 4. I’d like to believe that’s because we are so ahead of the curve that we ushered in the cold a week too soon.
Now, though, the fall leaves are beginning to change and we are settling into the coziest point in the season. So let’s shed those losing tickets and get back on track (like many of the players highlighted below) in Week 5.
QB Props
Joshua Dobbs OVER 20.5 rushing yards (vs. Bengals)
Daniel: I don’t want to just shed those losing tickets, I want to shred those losing tickets! Last week sucked, but we’re moving on to a better week, Liz. I’m ready to cash some winners this week — so tell me where you’re going with your first prop this week!
Liz: Don’t look now, but Dobbs is fantasy’s QB15 overall, managing more fantasy points per game than either Trevor Lawrence or Dak Prescott. The 28-year-old journeyman has been serving! While most of the focus has been on his unexpected success as a passer (he just passed for 265 yards and 2 scores at Levi Stadium!) Dobbs is additionally providing fantasy managers with some delicious rushing upside. He currently ranks fifth among QBs in rushing carries (24) and rushing yards per game (35.3). This weekend, he’ll face a Cincinnati squad that ranks 31st in rush defense (allowing an average of 157.0 yards per contest) and has given up the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs.
RB Props
David Montgomery ANY TIME TD (vs. Panthers)
Daniel: I really like that Dobbs call, Liz. I’ll definitely co-sign on that prop as well! I know we usually do a QB, RB and WR, but I’m throwing caution to the wind (is that even how that saying goes?) and rolling with an ANY TIME TOUCHDOWN from Montgomery! Amon-Ra St. Brown is doubtful for this game, Jahmyr Gibbs is questionable and they’re playing the 0-4 Carolina Panthers, who have given up two rushing touchdowns in three of their four games. Meanwhile, Monty has five rushing TDs so far this season, and without the other Lions skill players, there’s a good chance we’re seeing a lot of work for him. I’m going with this instead of a QB pick this week.
Raheem Mostert OVER 46.5 rushing yards (vs. Giants)
Liz: Mostert went from beasting for four TDs on 20 touches in Week 3 to managing 45 scrimmage yards on half as many opportunities in Week 4. De’Von Achane stole the show. The rookie’s explosiveness may very well eat into Mostert’s volume. After all, Mostert’s snaps have steadily decreased (47-45-36-24) over the past month. But as Kevin Pulsifer reminded us in Hype, Trap, Bet, recency bias is a heck of an influence. Mostert’s overall stock might be trending down, but he figures to garner plenty of high-value touches in Week 5. The Dolphins are 12-point favorites versus a Giants team that’s allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs. Mostert is a lock for at least 50 rushing yards in Week 5.
Bijan Robinson OVER 28.5 receiving yards (vs. Texans)
Daniel: We’ve hit on this prop for three weeks in a row and we’re going back to the well for another go! Bijan has seen over five targets per game through his first four weeks and I’m not expecting that to change this week! Houston just gave up 32 receiving yards to Najee and 27 receiving yards to Jaylen Warren. I promise you, Bijan is a better, more explosive athlete than both of those guys — no surprise there. The Falcons should continue to live through the Bijan Robinson experience and I’m expecting this to continue for another week, give me the OVER on 28.5 receiving yards!
WR Props
Michael Thomas OVER 50.5 receiving yards (at Patriots)
Liz: Chris Olave is, undoubtedly, the Saints’ brightest star. Thomas, however, is tied for first with Olave in snaps (205) and is leading the team in routes run (140). While the vet’s upside is limited, he has remained refreshingly consistent, managing at least four grabs and 50 yards in each effort. Given Bill Belichick’s penchant for taking away the opposing team’s most threatening weapon, I expect boomerang vet Jonathan Jones to prioritize Olave. That should open up opportunities for Thomas as he faces a secondary that’s been ravaged by injuries. With Derek Carr healthier and the Pats hurting, give me the OVER on 50.5 receiving yards for CantGuardMike.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine OVER 2.5 receptions (at Colts)
Daniel: Don’t adjust your screens, you are, in fact, reading this correctly. We’re taking a NWI prop this week! If you ask my buddy Thirsty Kyle Soppe, he’ll tell you how much love I have for this random AFC South WR. There’s no Treylon Burks this week, and in his three of his four games, Westbrook-Ikhine has hit this mark. And since they’re taking on the Anthony Richardson-led Colts who have hit at least 21 points in all four games this year, I’m expecting there to be enough passing game offense to get us here. I know, I know — this one feels like it’s out there — but I really like this number given his usage without Burks in the lineup.
