MLB Division Series takeaways: Phillies eliminate Braves, earn spot in NLCS
With a thrilling 3-1 victory over the Atlanta Braves on Thursday night, the Philadelphia Phillies became the fourth team to clinch a spot in the league championship series.
Wednesday night, the Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks punched their tickets to the next round, one day after the Texas Rangers became the first team in. The Diamondbacks defeated the 100-win Los Angeles Dodgers, the Rangers swept the 99-win Tampa Bay Rays and the 101-win Baltimore Orioles — and now the 104-win Braves are out as well.
How did the Phillies manage to knock out the Braves for a second straight year? Will Philadelphia roll past the D-backs to make it back-to-back World Series trips? And what should Atlanta make of a record-setting regular season followed by another early postseason exit? We’ve got it all covered with updates, takeaways and ESPN MLB experts Buster Olney, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield breaking down what it means for both teams.
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Takeaways
Philadelphia Phillies 3, Atlanta Braves 1: Two straight Braves-Phillies showdowns in the NLDS — and two straight trips to the NLCS for the Phillies, as they knocked the Braves out again with a Game 4 victory on Thursday night. There’s just an inertia working in the Phillies favor when they play at home. In Games 3 and 4, they got down early before quickly storming back to put away the mighty Braves. Atlanta will say all the right things but it looked intimidated — and it showed both at the plate and on the mound. And just when you think you’re safe because you’ve managed to keep Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber quiet, here comes Nick Castellanos. He had a three-hit day, including two home runs while Trea Turner had four hits. The Phillies are simply rolling at home — and now they have home-field advantage in the next round. — Jesse Rogers
Setting aside Playoff Bryce, which other Phillies player impressed you most in this series?
Olney: Ranger Suarez started two of the four games in this series and worked so well that it seemed like Rob Thomson’s confidence in the lefty grew. In Game 4, Thomson seemed to leave Suarez in the game a little longer because of the trust he earned in Game 1, and in response, Suarez kept spinning his breaking ball with the confidence that seems to resonate off him. Thomson will surely be happy to hand Suarez the ball in Game 3 or 4 of the NL Championship Series.
Schoenfield: Heading into the postseason, I felt like Aaron Nola was one of the most important players of the entire postseason. He was homer-prone in an up-and-down regular season, but so far he’s had two strong starts, with wins over the Marlins and the Braves. Heck, to Buster’s point, throw in Suarez and suddenly the Phillies have a strong 2-3 in the rotation behind ace Zack Wheeler.
Rogers: Nick Castellanos. He’s been called a professional hitter and he showed why, taking Spencer Strider — the majors’ strikeout leader — deep twice in Game 4 after homering twice in Game 3. No player has ever done that. Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner get most of the headlines, but Castellanos stole them in this series. The guy can flat out hit.
What is it about Philly that matches up so well against Atlanta in the postseason?
Olney: I don’t think it’s about matching up well; rather, I think it’s about timing. In ’22 and again in ’23, the Braves’ rotation was deeply affected by injuries going into the playoffs. This year, Max Fried was coming off a blister problem and clearly wasn’t sharp in his start in Game 2. Charlie Morton wasn’t available at all. And in all of these matchups of division rivals — the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks is another example — there is no awe, no unknown. These teams have faced each other so often that there is zero mystique.
Schoenfield: Well, the Phillies led the majors in home runs the final two months, so despite all the season-long dominance of the Atlanta offense, the Philly lineup, with the way it had been hitting, was arguably just as good. Factor in the diminished nature of the Braves rotation with no Morton and Fried pitching through his blister issue, and the Phillies were primed to outslug the Braves. And that’s exactly what happened.
Rogers: Their respective crowds? OK, that might be a little dramatic but there’s a reason the Braves took so long to name a Game 3 starter. Their choices were inexperience vs inexperience — and inexperience simply doesn’t play at Citizens Bank Park. Bryce Elder wilted after being staked to a 1-0 lead — and one night later, even their ace, Strider, did the same. It’s not the matchup. It’s the atmosphere — and a better starting staff.
104 wins, but another early playoff exit — how would you label the Braves’ season?
Olney: Deeply frustrating. After being eliminated by the Phillies last year, they pushed the regular-season rock back up the mountain, and then got squashed in exactly the same fashion they did last year. Now the same group of players will face the same challenge next year, and the prospect of that will either drive them or hang on them during the ’24 season.
Schoenfield: This is playoff baseball. The Braves won the World Series in 2021 when they won just 88 games and had World Series games started by — I’m not making this up — Tucker Davidson and Dylan Lee. The 2022 and 2023 Braves were much better teams but just didn’t get hot at the right time. Ask Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz: There is no super secret formula to knowing how to win in October.
Rogers: Disappointing, but they can point to those pitching injuries as the main reason. Still, Atlanta needs to examine the mix in the room when adversity hits. Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson aren’t there to lead the group anymore. Brian Snitker said the whole room leads — which usually means no one is. Combating the Phillies on the road is a real thing, and they need real leadership to do that.
What do you expect from the Phillies in the NLCS against the Diamondbacks?
Olney: The Diamondbacks have knocked off two division winners with a 5-0 record to start the postseason, so you’d think I’d stop underestimating them. But the Phillies and Braves were the most complete teams on the NL side of the brackets, and it still seems like the D-Backs — with so many young players — are a middleweight facing a heavyweight in the Phillies roster. Philadelphia is on a vision quest right now, and it’s hard to imagine anyone but the Astros having a chance to beat them.
Schoenfield: They’ll be heavy favorites, of course, but don’t sleep on the Diamondbacks. The problem for Arizona: Do they have enough starting pitching beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly? Brandon Pfaadt had a good start against the Dodgers, but he serves up a lot of home runs — which, as we just saw, is what the Phillies are very good at hitting. Arizona hasn’t even had to use a fourth starter and with fewer off-days, the bullpen will be tested more than it has so far. It wouldn’t shock me to see a sweep, but I’ll say the Phillies in five as they overpower the D-backs.
Rogers: I think the Phillies keep rolling — but they better not underestimate the D-Backs. One thing is for sure, Arizona won’t come to Philadelphia scared. The D-Backs are pitching as good as anyone left in the postseason. That alone should keep them in it.
