Wall Street’s biggest bear is now predicting an end-of-year stock rally

In a note on Monday, Morgan Stanley’s Wilson—who was ranked No. 1 in last year’s Institutional Investor survey after correctly predicting the selloff in stocks—stood by his cautious outlook for U.S. equities, doubling down on his prediction that stocks will shed 10% of their value by the end of 2023.

“The average stock has already broken down technically,” he wrote. “The signals are weaker and suggest key tactical support is vulnerable.”

The S&P 500—a benchmark for America’s biggest publicly listed companies—has made steady gains this month, after suffering a volatile September in which it plummeted by 5%. So far this year, the index has returned almost 15%.

However, Wilson insisted that all was not as it seemed, noting that companies with defensive qualities like strong cash flows were among the index’s best-performing stocks—which suggested there was “a cautious tone under the surface of the market.”

A decline in Wall Street earnings revisions, combined with consumer confidence being on much shakier ground, were also supporting Wilson’s projection that the S&P 500 will end this year at 3,900 points, he argued.

“The bottom line, the breakdown in various breadth measures, cautious factor leadership, the recent decline in earnings revisions and fading consumer confidence reduce the odds of a fourth-quarter rally,” he said in his note.

All was not necessarily lost, though, the veteran investor conceded.

Despite his own caution, Wilson acknowledged that many investors were still betting on stocks despite economic headwinds denting confidence—which could feed into a rally at some point in the fourth quarter.

“Many are still leaning more long than they would like to reduce the probability of missing out in a year in which narrow mega-cap strength has driven benchmarks,” he explained. If current prices hold in the short term, he said, that sentiment may be maintained—making it “more likely than not” that stocks would rally in the final months of 2023.

Bearish outlook

Wilson, one of Wall Street’s most prominent bears, has long been making gloomy predictions about U.S. stocks, warning investors in May not to be fooled by the rally that was unfolding across the S&P 500 at the time.

However, his warnings have not always come to fruition.

Earlier this year, he predicted that a 20% downturn was imminent for U.S. stocks—and has since reflected on why his projections missed the mark.

“We were wrong,” he conceded in a note to clients over the summer. “2023 has been a story of higher valuations amid falling inflation and cost-cutting.”

In an August interview with Bloomberg, Wilson said he “should have gone with his instinct” and revised his market calls in January when he feared that Morgan Stanley’s outlook was too bearish.

“We missed this fiscal impulse, that was a big mess on our part,” he said. “We thought the fiscal impulse would come at the time that [the government] really needed it.”

Wilson’s 2023 end-of-year price target for the S&P 500 has long stood at 3,900 points—a drop of around 10% from where it’s currently trading.

Back in July, he said his base case for mid-2024 was now for the S&P 500 to drop to around 4,200 points—a drop of just 3% from current levels. In a bear case scenario, however, he forecasted that the blue-chip index could plummet as low as 3,700 by next June, meaning they would shed almost 15% from where they are now.

Wilson isn’t a lone voice on Wall Street when it comes to taking a warier approach to stocks in recent months—despite the S&P 500 staging a strong recovery in 2023 from its worst year since the financial crisis.

Earlier this month, JPMorgan’s top strategist warned stocks could be about to nosedive 20%, saying he was “not sure how we’re going to avoid” a recession.

Some calculations suggest that the S&P 500 is headed below 3,000 points—which would be a decline of at least 30% from current levels.

Wall Street bulls Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, meanwhile, have lowered their year-end price targets for the S&P 500 index.

According to Bank of America’s September Global Fund Manager Survey—which polled 222 respondents who collectively manage assets worth $616 billion—institutional investors are not quite “extremely bearish,” but they aren’t feeling bullish either.