ESPN Eliminator Challenge: Strategy, advice and picks

October 26, 2023 ndowd

Oct 25, 2023, 01:00 PM ET

Last week may have been the most interesting week of the season in Eliminator Challenge. More than 47% of entrants picked the Seattle Seahawks, by far the most popular selection in any week this season and the top choice in this article. When a team is that popular, fading them and hoping for a loss is often a smart strategy.

However, that would have failed miserably last week. Four of the six next-most popular picks after the Seahawks all lost, including the only two other teams to crack the 10% mark, including the Bills at 13%. The Browns and Jaguars were the only exceptions to win.

This week, no team is shaping up to be as popular as the Seahawks were last week. Mike Clay projects eight teams with at least a 75% chance to win. Seven of those eight teams are among the top eight Super Bowl favorites. The other is the Los Angeles Chargers, who are a strong choice but not the top option this week.

At this point of the season, it is worth the effort to start mapping out a path to get through Week 18. Based on the top picks in this article in recent weeks, here is the projected path the rest of the season. Remember these picks can and will change as team qualities change and injuries occur.

Top picks so far: Commanders-Bills-Chiefs-49ers-Lions-Dolphins-Seahawks

Projected remaining path: Ravens-Browns-Cowboys-Texans-Vikings-Steelers-Chargers-Rams-Jets-Jaguars-Eagles

Click here to download Mike Clay’s Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly.

Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

This is the biggest favorite role remaining the rest of the season for the Ravens according to both ESPN Analytics and Mike Clay. Both models also project the Ravens as the biggest favorites of the week. While there are six games remaining where Clay projects them as a 70% favorite, all but two of their remaining games are against teams .500 or better. The only other time they face a team below .500 at home is in Week 14 against the Rams.

That same week, the Chargers host the Broncos, which both Clay and ESPN Analytics project a similar likelihood of winning. With that being the case, and the Chargers likely being the more popular pick this week, going with the Ravens this week makes strategic sense. However, keep an eye on Kyler Murray’s status, as a Murray return would make the Ravens less appealing.

Mike Clay chance to win: 87%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 85%
Caesars Sportsbook: 8.5-point favorites (-420 money line)

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET

The Chargers check a lot of boxes this week, as this is their largest projected favorite role this season, and there are not many opportunities to use them. Mike Clay projects them with only two more games with at least a 70% chance to win, while ESPN Analytics projects them with only one more such game.

They are likely to be the most popular selection of the week, but they are unlikely to be anywhere near as popular as Seattle last week. Justin Herbert is 4-0 as a home favorite of at least a touchdown, though the last time he was favored by this much, his Chargers lost outright as 13-point road favorites in Houston in 2021.

Mike Clay chance to win: 76%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 74%
Caesars Sportsbook: 8.5-point favorites (-430 money line)

Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions
Ford Field, Detroit
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET

The Lions also have their highest win probability in any remaining game this season, just like the Ravens and Chargers. The Raiders rate as the third-worst defense in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, and if Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell is starting at quarterback again, the offense is no better.

According to Mike Clay, the Lions have three more games left as at least a 75% favorite after this week, so there is value in saving them if you still have them, but there is nothing wrong with burning them this week if you still have them available.