Preview: What one-loss teams must do to stay in the CFP race

There’s so much more to celebrate this Halloween than chocolate bars, candy corn (no judgment here) and kids in adorable costumes.

The College Football Playoff selection committee’s first ranking release, for instance. Will it be a Halloween trick or a treat? With the decision on the horizon, what do one-loss teams have to do this week to remain in contention for a coveted spot in the top four?

Our reporters break down what it will take in Week 9 for Oregon and Utah, who face one another, Texas and Penn State — all one-loss teams — to stay in the CFP picture. We’re also looking at QBs to watch in Week 9, including an under-the-radar player, and notable quotes from the week.

How can these one-loss teams prove themselves and stay relevant in Week 9?

Note: Not all one-loss teams were included, notably Alabama, which is still very much in the CFP picture but has a Week 9 bye.

Oregon: Just win. Is that too simple? A loss at Utah would effectively eliminate the Ducks from the CFP equation, while a win keeps them in the game. Beyond the basic math, going to Salt Lake City to play one of the nation’s best defenses provides a valuable opportunity to make a statement about what this offense can be. If quarterback Bo Nix is truly a Heisman Trophy candidate — which still should be the case — there’s no better way to prove himself than with a big day in this matchup.

It’s still hard to imagine a scenario where a one-loss Pac-12 team, given the depth the conference has this season, would be left out of the CFP. And if Oregon were to fill that hypothetical profile, then its only loss would have been a heartbreaker on the road against Washington. Far from an unforgivable loss.

The Ducks still have USC and Oregon State on the schedule, so they’ll have chances to impress, but this will be the biggest test for their offense. The Utes have allowed more than 14 points just twice this season. — Kyle Bonagura

Utah: Aside from getting an injured Cam Rising back (he was ruled out for the season last week), the Utes need to continue stacking up the statement wins. Going to LA and outlasting USC without Rising was Step 1, but the upcoming game against Oregon, as well as matchups against Washington (in Seattle) and Colorado at home will go a long way toward proving Kyle Whittingham’s team is good enough to win a third straight Pac-12 title and have an outside shot at the playoff.

Despite their strong defensive efforts (they have the 12th-best defense in the nation according to SP+), their chances likely rest on how much they can get out of backup quarterback Bryson Barnes. The junior shined against the Trojans, throwing for three touchdowns, but he’s no Rising, and Utah has been able to win in spite of its quarterback situation.

And yet, we’re well past the point of doubting a Whittingham-led team, injuries or not. The Utes are greater than the sum of their parts. That identity has been more than enough for them so far. The only question is, can they keep it up? — Paolo Uggetti

Texas: The Longhorns will be facing Steve Sarkisian’s alma mater, BYU, with backup quarterback Maalik Murphy likely making his first college start after Quinn Ewers was sidelined by a shoulder injury suffered against Houston.

Texas’ defense will be under the spotlight against BYU, which has the best record against Texas (4-1) of any opponent the Longhorns have faced at least five times. After giving up an average of 12.8 points per game (including a 34-24 win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa) as Texas started 5-0 and climbed to No. 3, Oklahoma went 75 yards in five plays with 1:17 left to upset the Longhorns 34-30.

Last week, after dominating the first 22 minutes of the Houston game with a 21-0 lead, Houston’s Donovan Smith passed for 378 yards and three touchdowns and the Longhorns had to hold off a last-second fourth-down try on the 10-yard-line to win 31-24.

“The lesson learned here is we have to have a killer instinct,” Sarkisian said after the game. “People aren’t going to lay down against us. … We relaxed.”

Whether it’s Murphy, who shined in the spring game (9-of-13 passing for 165 yards) but has attempted just eight passes in his Texas career, or freshman Arch Manning, who has the pedigree and was the No. 5 overall player in this year’s ESPN 300, a lot of eyes will be on how the Longhorns look against BYU.

The Allstate Playoff Predictor currently gives Texas a 25% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Only six teams (including Oklahoma at 63%) are ahead of it. So if Texas can win out, including a potential rematch with OU in the Big 12 title game, it would likely be in. The killer instinct could be the difference. — Dave Wilson

Penn State: While the urge to just whitewash yet another loss to Ohio State — its 11th in the last 12 meetings between the two schools — would be a strong one, Penn State needs to heed the harsh lesson learned last weekend in Columbus.

Failing to convert on its first 15 third-down attempts and going 1-for-16 in that department in the 20-12 loss, its offense managed a season-low 240 total yards — the program’s lowest since last season’s October loss to Michigan in Ann Arbor (268). The ability to sustain drives against elite competition and getting back to running the football with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who combined for 74 yards on 18 carries against Ohio State, is paramount.

Quarterback Drew Allar struggled mightily last week (18-of-42 passing for 191 yards and an interception) in his first true hostile environment and will look to rebound at home against Indiana this weekend.

Despite the loss, Penn State’s defense under defensive coordinator Manny Diaz remains second nationally both in scoring defense (9.7 PPG) and passing defense (144.7 YPG) — a force to be dealt with.

Its Big Ten East title hopes flickering, there will be nothing Penn State will be able to do if it can’t beat Michigan when the Wolverines come to State College on Nov. 11. Its offense will need to be humming to make the most of that opportunity. — Blake Baumgartner

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Which QB are you most looking forward to watching this weekend?

ACC: We are going under the radar here and choosing Boston College quarterback Thomas Castellanos, who has emerged as a running force in the ACC. Since he became the full-time starter in Week 2, BC has transformed into a rush-heavy offense, playing to its strengths behind Castellanos and a much improved offensive line.

Castellanos is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing games — the only Power 5 quarterback with multiple 100-yard rushing games this season. BC is also coming off consecutive 300-yard rushing games as a team. The last time that happened was in 2017.

Do you know what else happened in 2017? That was the last time BC overcame a 1-3 record to make a bowl game. BC started 1-3 and is now on a three-game winning streak headed into its game Saturday against UConn. This is a big game for a few reasons. A loss to UConn last season was probably the low point in a disappointing 3-9 campaign. Avenging that loss gets BC to 5-3, just one win away from bowl eligibility. Castellanos is a big key in getting there. — Andrea Adelson

Big 12: Given the stakes and the circumstances, it’s got to be whoever gets the nod at Texas. Murphy is a 6-foot-5, 238-pound redshirt freshman whose accuracy on deep balls in the spring game looked like the missing piece of the Texas offense last season. Then there’s Manning, whose jerseys are for sale in every store in town as fans clamor for a glimpse of the future and football royalty.

“We’ll go through the week and Arch and Maalik will both get a ton of reps,” Sarkisian said Monday. “If the game was being played today, Maalik would start the game and again, Arch will be ready to go.”

Big Ten: Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord was able to come out of the Penn State game without a turnover, which is an accomplishment in itself considering how good the Nittany Lions’ defense has been this season.

McCord was also able to get the ball to Marvin Harrison Jr., who had 162 yards and a touchdown. It wasn’t that long ago McCord was in a quarterback battle with Devin Brown, trying to hang on as the starter.

McCord has shown improvement throughout the season and finished the win over Penn State with 286 yards and a touchdown. It wasn’t a perfect game for McCord, but he showed improvement and has now helped the Buckeyes beat two top-10 opponents this season.

Ohio State will face Wisconsin this week with the Badgers 5-2.

“We talked about it on Sunday, as a team, that we’ve got to bring it this week. [Wisconsin] is playing well, they’re a good football team,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day said at his weekly news conference. “They’ve got a really good opportunity to win their side and we can’t let last week affect this week. Championship teams bring it every week, they don’t have ups and downs and letdowns, so we’re not allowed to have a letdown.”

McCord has another opportunity against the Badgers to continue his improvement, settle into the offense and build his confidence as Ohio State moves closer to its end-of-the-season matchup with Michigan. — Tom VanHaaren

Pac-12: A quick review of Utah quarterback Barnes’ season doesn’t show a lot to be impressed with. Statistically, he’s been among the worst in the Pac-12 (633 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, 3 interceptions in six appearances). However, after the resident “pig farmer” went out and led Utah to a win against USC — and Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams — last week, it’s time to climb aboard the Barnes bandwagon. At least for this week.

The Utes seemed destined for a lost season without Rising for the first several weeks, but with competent quarterback play this is a team that has the potential to remain in the conference title race. — Bonagura

SEC: LSU‘s Jayden Daniels has played his way to the forefront of the Heisman Trophy race, but Florida‘s Graham Mertz has quietly been one of the most efficient passers in the league.

The Wisconsin junior transfer is third nationally in completion percentage (76.2) and has passed for 1,897 yards, 12 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. In his past two starts (wins over South Carolina and Vanderbilt), he’s completed 71% of his passes for 677 yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions.

Mertz will face his toughest test yet Saturday against No. 1 Georgia, which is third nationally in allowing just 5.1 yards per attempt. The Bulldogs have intercepted more passes (nine) than they’ve given up touchdown passes (eight).

If the Gators (5-2, 3-1) are going to upset the Dawgs and stay in the SEC East race, they will likely need to make more explosive plays in the passing game. They’re tied for 101st nationally in completions of 30 yards or longer (eight) through seven games and have thrown just two touchdown passes against FBS opponents that were longer than 20 yards. — Chris Low

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Quotes of the week

“Everyone’s trying to get an edge wherever they can. You can have someone’s whole game plan. They could mail it to you. You’ve still got to stop it.” — Colorado coach Deion Sanders, on sign stealing in college football.

“You can’t steal signs and do any of this stuff if you have a helmet communicator.” — Alabama coach Nick Saban, echoing other coaches in favor of new sideline communication in the wake of accusations of sign stealing by Michigan.

“They’ve got a Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback. So they’re going to make some things, and that’s just the way it is. But we’ve got ourselves a pig farmer at quarterback, so we’re proud of that guy, too.” — Kyle Whittingham, after Utah’s win against USC in Week 8.