Dr. A's weekly risers and fallers: Dereck Lively II, Jaden Ivey make the list
The NBA season is now in full swing and it’s time for the 2023-24 debut of my Risers and Fallers column. We’ll look at who is trending up and who is off to a slow start… even if we’re only three days into the season.
It’s too early to panic on most players who struggled in the opener, but here are some things to think about. Sometimes the biggest moves you make happen before your competition figures out what’s going on. Let’s get right to it!
Risers
Dereck Lively II, C, Dallas Mavericks, 10.5% rostered in ESPN leagues: The rookie came off the bench behind guys like Derrick Jones Jr. and Maxi Kleber against the Spurs in the opener, but Dallas quickly assessed that they needed him on the court. He started the second half, made big plays on both ends of the court and should be a key factor in Dallas’ ability to win games going forward. He finished with 16 points, 10 rebounds, a steal and a block and hit 7 of 8 shots in 31 minutes. While he’s not a must-have fantasy player at this point, if you have a shaky player you drafted late that you want to cut in order to grab him, do it.
Dennis Schroder, PG, Toronto Raptors, 39.1% rostered: We were excited about Schroder coming into the season simply because he’s the only true (and proven) point guard on the Raptors. And he did not disappoint in an opening-night win against Minnesota. The journeyman played 33 minutes, hit 8 of 17 shots and four 3-pointers to finish with 22 points, 3 rebounds, 7 assists and just 2 turnovers in a gem of a game. I don’t see anyone on the Raptors who is going to steal his minutes at point guard and as long as he’s healthy, Schroder is going to eat this season. If you have a player at the end of your bench you want to drop to pick him up, it’s probably a good idea.
Cam Thomas, SG, Brooklyn Nets, 19.6% rostered: Thomas came off the bench on Wednesday and immediately went off, finishing with an NBA-record 36 points, the most ever for a player off the bench in the opener of a season. We’ve seen Thomas explode before, like when he scored 40-plus points in three straight games in February. But we’ve also seen him suddenly disappear for weeks at a time. He’s already in the discussion for Sixth Man of the Year and when he hits the court it’s clear that he’s going to have the green light. He hit eight 3-pointers on Wednesday and while he’s not a player that’s going to put up monster fantasy numbers across the board, this could be the season we finally see him break out. Don’t cut a player you’re confident in to pick him up, but if you have someone shaky at the end of your bench and want to take a flier on him, do it.
Max Strus, SG/SF, Cleveland Cavaliers, 12.8% rostered: The book on Strus has been that he’s a one-hit wonder, or in fantasy terms, a 3-point specialist. But Strus threw that book into the fire on Wednesday when he went off for 27 points, 7 triples, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal and a block on 9-of-17 shooting in 39 minutes against the Nets. Yes, it could have been a fluke and there are certainly no guarantees that this doesn’t end up being his best game of the season. But the fact he contributed across the board and was one of the better players in the entire league on opening night should not be taken lightly. If you need 3-pointers and have a player you’re anxious to drop, make the move and see if Strus can build on his surprising opening-night performance.
Bruce Brown, SG/SF, Indiana Pacers, 25.6% rostered: Brown is another player I was high on coming into the season after he signed a big contract for $22 million with the Pacers. I’ve been predicting a career-year from the wing man and he came through with a career-high six 3-pointers, 24 points, 3 rebounds, 1 assist and a steal on 8-of-11 shooting on Wednesday. He’s going to be a strong presence in the locker room and on both ends of the court for the Pacers, and is going to be a key two-way player for his new team. He should be rostered in more leagues than he currently is and is worth looking at on the waiver wire in any league.
Jalen Johnson, SF, Atlanta Hawks, 5.1% rostered: Johnson came off the bench for the Hawks and Dejounte Murray, Trae Young and De’Andre Hunter didn’t play well in Wednesday’s opener. But Johnson put on a bit of a personal dunk contest in Game 1 and Hawks fans are already calling for him to get more minutes than Hunter going forward. He easily passed the eye test and finished with 21 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, a block and a 3-pointer on 9-of-13 shooting in 29 minutes. Yes, it was only one game, but Johnson looked fantastic and is a deep sleeper in fantasy. If you have a draft pick you regret in a deeper league, Johnson is worth scooping up until we see what happens going forward. And if he goes off in the first half against the Knicks on Friday, be ready to pounce.
Fallers
Jaden Ivey, PG/SG, Detroit Pistons, 60.3% rostered: Ivey was the fifth pick in the 2022 NBA draft and has yet to live up to the hype after a storied career at Purdue. And while big things were hoped for in the new season, he played just 17 minutes off the bench in a loss to the Heat on Wednesday. Ivey finished with just four points on 1-of-7 shooting, missed both of his 3-pointers and added just two rebounds and three assists in the loss. Yes, there’s plenty of time for him to bounce back and turn his season around, but if you’re sitting on Ivey and have your eye on a hot free agent, feel free to make the move. The Pistons have enough wings on their young team that it’s hard to see Ivey fully blowing up this season. Especially after getting just 17 minutes in his season debut.
Talen Horton-Tucker, PG/SG Utah Jazz, 6.7% rostered: I was high on THT coming into the week and loaded up on him in various fantasy/betting formats for his opener. The plan backfired, as he had just 8 points, 1 rebound, 4 assists, a block and 2 3-pointers on 3-of-9 shooting in a paltry 22 minutes. The minutes might be the most concerning thing about that stat line, but the Jazz were dominated by the Kings and they played 15 guys. I’m not ready to give up on THT just yet and Horton-Tucker is a guy I’ll at least hold until we’re five games into the season. And once we do decide it’s time to drop him, he’s the type of player that should hop on and off of the waiver wire all season long until he gets it going. Hold him until we see if Game 1 was an aberration or becomes a trend.
Daniel Gafford, PF/C, Washington Wizards, 60.8% rostered: The Wizards gave up a whopping 143 points to the Pacers in the opener and Gafford finished with just 6 points, 5 rebounds and 2 blocks in 21 minutes. The fantasy community was pretty high on him coming into the season based on his ability to block shots and his uncontested role as the Wizards’ starting fantasy center. And despite the lackluster line, nothing has changed. Would I drop Gafford to get a red-hot Dereck Lively II? Maybe. But the best advice I can give here is to hold onto Gafford for another two or three games and let him get settled before throwing him overboard. I still think he’s primed for a serviceable and fun fantasy season.
Collin Sexton, PG/SG, Utah Jazz, 49.1% rostered: Sexton hit just 2 of 9 shots for 9 points, 3 rebounds and nothing else in Wednesday’s opening loss against the Kings. Even when Sexton is feeling it, he’s a guy who tends to score some points and not contribute much across the board in fantasy. Despite his solid rostership rate in ESPN leagues, he’s a guy I would consider for any of the ‘Risers’ listed in this column. As I told my son, who has Sexton on his main fantasy roster, fantasy managers can live without Sexton, even when things are going well.
Bilal Coulibaly, SG/SF, Washington Wizards, 2% rostered: Coulibaly caught some late hype when several of us started touting him for his ability to steal the ball for a bad Wizards team. He got off to a rough start with just three points on 1-of-3 shooting along with 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 0 steals and 3 blocks in 23 minutes against the Pacers on Wednesday. His ability to steal and block is enticing in fantasy, but it’s tough to roster a player who’s not going to score many points. And while the upside is there and he might one day emerge as a fantasy force, it’s not likely to happen this season. If you’re sitting on Coulibaly, there are enough hot free agents out there to dump him and move on. You might not even know he’s gone once you do it.
