ESPN Eliminator Challenge Week 9: Strategy, advice and picks

November 2, 2023 ndowd

After a week where just 6% of ESPN Eliminator Challenge participants were knocked out, Week 9 could pose a tougher challenge. Each of the top 11 Super Bowl favorites are either off or play against each other.

Out of the two biggest betting favorites, one has lost four of its past six games (New Orleans Saints) and the other is led by a backup quarterback in P.J. Walker (Cleveland Browns). As of Tuesday evening, Eliminator Challenge players have a clear preference, as the Browns have been selected by 46% of entries this week, compared to just 13% for the Saints. Those are the two best options this week on paper, but the third option is where things can get tricky.

Top picks so far: Commanders-Bills-Chiefs-49ers-Lions-Dolphins-Seahawks-Ravens
Projected remaining path: Saints-Cowboys-Texans-Titans-Steelers-Bengals-Chargers-Jets-Jaguars-Eagles

Click here to download Mike Clay’s Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly.

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Saints and Browns are similarly strong options this week. Mike Clay’s model has the Saints as his top choice, while the ESPN Analytics model prefers the Browns. The Browns have more value in the future than the Saints, but if the Browns are going to be significantly more popular, then the Saints get the tiebreaker. It’s the first time Dennis Allen has been a touchdown favorite, but the Saints are coming off their best offensive performance of the season, putting up 511 yards and 38 points on the road against the Colts.

With the Tyson Bagent-led Bears taking a big step back offensively last week, combined with the Saints’ improving offense, this is a good time to use New Orleans. The Saints have a couple of appealing games remaining, most notable Weeks 14 and 15 hosting the Panthers and Giants, so if the projected selection percentages begin to flip, pivoting to the Browns would be recommended.

Mike Clay chance to win: 72%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 64%
Betting odds: 7.5-point favorites (-355 money line)

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns
Cleveland Browns Stadium, Cleveland
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Cardinals remain the worst team in the NFL according to ESPN Analytics, so whenever they are on the road, their opponent is likely a good Eliminator pick. That continues this week against the Browns. This is the easiest game remaining this season for the Browns, who only have one more week as at least a 60% favorite according to ESPN Analytics (Week 15 vs Bears).

Like for the Saints, this is an unfamiliar spot for P.J. Walker and the Browns. Walker has never been favored in his NFL career, much less favored by over a touchdown. If Kyler Murray starts, this could get a little tighter, but the Browns defense is by far the best unit in this game, and it should be enough to get the Browns a win.

Mike Clay chance to win: 64%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 77%
Betting odds: 8-point favorites (-365 moneyline)

Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

The third choice could go in any number of directions. The Ravens are the next-biggest betting favorites, but they have a ton of future value. The Falcons are the next-biggest betting favorites and playing their easiest game of the season, but Mike Clay and ESPN Analytics both aren’t as high on them as the betting markets. The Patriots and Raiders have their easiest remaining games of the season.

The third pick this week is the Indianapolis Colts on the road against the Carolina Panthers. It’s the second-most lopsided game of the week, according to Clay. There aren’t many weeks in the future where the Colts are appealing. While it’s the first time all season they have been favored, they have gone 2-1 in games against losing teams, with the only loss coming in overtime. The Panthers rate out as the second-worst team according to ESPN Analytics, and picking spots to fade them has mostly been a profitable strategy.