Projecting conference title games: Alabama-Georgia in SEC, Texas-Oklahoma in Big 12

November 4, 2023 ndowd

Tuesday’s release of the first College Football Playoff rankings seems like a good time to check in with each of the Power 5 conferences and their chances of making it to the last four, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

The selection committee ranked Ohio State No. 1, with the Buckeyes having the best chance to make the CFP at 79%, per the predictor. The committee had Georgia at No. 2, followed by Michigan and Florida State. The predictor, on the other hand, gives Florida State the second-best chance at 68%, followed by Michigan (50%) and Georgia (41%).

Let’s take a closer look at each conference:

Big 12

• After its loss to Kansas in Week 9, Oklahoma went from a 64% chance to make the playoff to a 28% chance. ESPN Analytics gives the Sooners a 33% chance to win out (including the Big 12 title game). The Allstate Playoff Predictor would give a one-loss Big 12 champ Oklahoma an 80% chance to make the CFP.

• Currently, there is a 47% chance OU and Texas have a rematch in the Big 12 title game. If each team wins this weekend, that chance jumps to 79%.

• Saturday’s Kansas State-Texas matchup (noon ET, FOX) is the Big 12’s highest-leverage game remaining.

• Most likely conference champion matchup: Oklahoma-Texas (47% chance of matchup)

SEC

• The SEC has four teams with at least a 5% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor: Georgia (41%), Alabama (29%), Ole Miss (6%) and LSU (5%).

• Georgia is one of five remaining undefeated Power 5 teams, but the Bulldogs rank behind three one-loss teams in strength of record. That should change down the stretch; Georgia’s strength of schedule ranks 100th in FBS through eight games, but the Bulldogs face the sixth-toughest schedule in the nation the rest of the way.

• LSU at Alabama (7:45 p.m. ET, CBS) is the highest playoff leverage game of the week and third highest for the remainder of the season (Ohio State-Michigan, Michigan-Penn State). The Tide have only missed the playoff twice since its inception, finishing 5th in last season’s rankings and 13th in the final rankings of 2019.

• LSU-Bama is one of the four remaining regular-season games between teams that both have at least a 5% chance to make the CFP (Michigan-Penn State, Michigan-Ohio State, Georgia-Ole Miss).

• Most likely conference championship matchup: Alabama-Georgia (63%)