Every clinching scenario in Tuesday's in-season tournament games

November 29, 2023 ndowd

Tim Bontemps, ESPNNov 28, 2023, 02:24 PM ET

The NBA announced on Aug. 15 its schedule for the group stage of the inaugural in-season tournament, which will see the winning team earn the NBA Cup and its players $500,000 each.

The tournament — whose final will be on Dec. 9 in Las Vegas — will see each NBA team play a four-game group stage in November, with the group winners advancing to the knockout rounds.

Two teams, the Indiana Pacers and Los Angeles Lakers, have already clinched their spots in the quarterfinals, which will take place Dec. 4 and 5. Six more teams will join them after the final two days of group stage games.

So what, exactly, is the NBA Cup? How will the tournament work? Why is it happening? What is the NBA hoping to get out of it?

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Every scenario you need to know for the final day of group play

All eight games that will be played in Tuesday’s final day of group play in the NBA’s inaugural in-season tournament will tip off with at least one of the teams involved able to qualify for next week’s knockout round.

Here’s a look at what is on the line Tuesday night.

East Group A

The Indiana Pacers have already clinched a home game in the East quarterfinals and are off Tuesday. The Pacers will earn the East’s top seed if the Miami Heat defeat the Milwaukee Bucks. If Milwaukee wins, Indiana will be the 2 seed.

East Group B

Milwaukee will win the group if:

the Bucks beat the Heat at home Tuesday night
the Heat beat the Bucks by 13 or fewer points AND the Knicks win at home against the Hornets, but the combined margin between New York’s win and Milwaukee’s loss is less than 22 points.

For example: if Miami beats Milwaukee by a score of 100-87, the Bucks would finish with a point differential of plus-26 and Miami would be plus-24, putting Milwaukee ahead. If the Knicks then beat the Hornets 100-92, New York’s point differential would also be plus-26, but the Bucks would get the top spot in the group by virtue of beating the Knicks in their head-to-head matchup.

In the very unlikely scenario this happens, all three teams would be tied, and the tiebreaker would go to points scored. Milwaukee has scored 371 points, Miami 330 and New York 325. So unless the Knicks scored 47 more points than Milwaukee does, the Bucks would win this tiebreaker.

Miami will win the group if:

For example: if Miami beats Milwaukee by a score of 100-86, the Heat and Bucks would tie with a plus-25 point differential, but Miami would be ahead due to winning the head-to-head matchup. If the Knicks beat the Hornets 100-94, New York’s point differential would be plus-24, and thus Miami would win the group.

New York will win the group if:

the Heat beat the Bucks AND the Knicks win at home against the Hornets, but the combined margin between New York and Miami’s wins is less than 7 points AND the combined margin between New York’s win and Milwaukee’s loss is more than 22 points.

For example: if Miami beats Milwaukee by a score of 100-86, the Heat and Bucks would tie with a plus-25 point differential, meaning the Knicks would have to win their game against the Hornets by at least 8 to finish with a plus-26 point differential to win the group.

Ultimately, the thing to watch for is if the Knicks win by at least 8 points. If they do, they are guaranteed of finishing at least second in Group B, and would advance unless at least one of the Cavaliers, Nets or Celtics win in a big blowout.

East Group C

The Orlando Magic (who are off), the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets all can still win Group C:

Orlando, which has a point differential of plus-22, will win the group if:

the Nets lose at home to the Raptors
the Nets win by 13 or less AND Boston beats the Chicago Bulls by 22 or less.

Boston will win the group if:

For example: if the Celtics win 100-77 and the Nets win 100-85, Boston and Brooklyn would tie with a point differential of plus-23, and Orlando would be at plus-22. Boston would then win the group because it beat Brooklyn head-to-head.

Brooklyn will win the group if:

For example: if the Celtics win 100-79 and the Nets win 100-86, Orlando and Brooklyn would tie with a point differential of plus-22, and Boston would be at plus-21. Brooklyn would then win the group because it beat Orlando head-to-head.

Unlike in Group B, if all three teams tie with a plus-22 point differential, points scored could be very close as well. Orlando, which has played all four games, has scored 446 points, while Brooklyn has scored 340 and Boston has scored 325. In the event all three teams did tie in points scored, the tiebreaker would go to the previous season’s regular-season record, and thus Boston would win the group.

East wild card

There are seven teams that could be the East wild card: the Bucks, Heat, Knicks, Magic, Celtics, Nets and Cleveland Cavaliers, who are playing the Atlanta Hawks in their final game in Group A.

Here is how they are currently ranked in terms of point differential:

Bucks, who are leading Group B, at plus-39
Magic, who are leading Group C (and done playing), at plus-22
Knicks, plus-18
Heat, plus-11
Nets, plus-8
Cavaliers, plus-6
Celtics, 0

One of the Bucks, Knicks and Heat will qualify by winning Group B, while one of the Magic, Celtics or Nets will qualify by winning Group C. One of the five remaining teams will be the wild card.

Because of how many teams are involved, there’s a chance two teams finish with the same point differential for the wild card. If that happens, total points scored would be the next tiebreaker. Here is how they are currently ranked in that category, with the Magic as the only team who has played all four group stage games.

Magic, 446 points scored
Bucks, 371 points scored
Cavaliers, 346 points scored
Nets, 340 points scored
Heat, 330 point scored
Celtics, 325 points scored
Knicks, 325 points scored

If the following things happen:

Knicks lose to Hornets
Bucks lose to Heat
Nets lose to Raptors
Celtics lose to Bulls
Hawks win over Cavaliers

There would be a 10-way tie at 2-2 for the wild card spot in the East, featuring the Knicks, Heat, Bucks, Nets, Raptors, Celtics, Hawks, Cavaliers and 76ers. Toronto has been eliminated already, but in this scenario any of the other nine could, in theory, qualify for the knockout round.

The chances of this happening, though, are obviously quite small.

West Group A

The Los Angeles Lakers have already clinched home court in the quarterfinals. The Lakers clinch the top seed if:

West Group B

West Group C

The Kings, Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves all have a chance to finish as group winners.

Sacramento wins if:

For example: Golden State beats Sacramento 100-89 and Minnesota beats Oklahoma City 100-79. In that scenario, Sacramento would have a point differential of plus-18, Golden State would be plus-16 and Minnesota would be plus-18, and Sacramento would advance due to beating Minnesota head-to-head.

Golden State wins the group if:

it beats Sacramento AND Minnesota loses to Oklahoma City
it beats Sacramento by at least 12 points AND Minnesota’s margin of victory is no more than 7 points bigger than Golden State’s.

For example: Golden State beats Sacramento 100-88 and Minnesota beats Oklahoma City 100-81. In that scenario, Golden State and Sacramento would be tied at plus-17, and Minnesota would be plus-16, and Golden State would advance by winning the head-to-head matchup with Sacramento.

Minnesota wins the group if:

For example: Golden State beats Sacramento 100-90, and Minnesota beats Oklahoma City 100-77. In that scenario, Minnesota would finish plus-20, Sacramento plus-19 and Golden State plus-15, and the Timberwolves would win the group.

West wild card

The Phoenix Suns are virtually assured of being the wild card team in the West, due to their 3-1 record and a plus-34 point differential.

There are two scenarios where Phoenix would not be the wild card, and both will take a lot to happen. They are:

Sacramento beats Golden State, improving to 4-0, and Minnesota beats Oklahoma City by at least 38, meaning the Timberwolves would have at least a plus-35 point differential and claim the wild card spot.
Golden State beats Sacramento by at least 30 and Minnesota beats Oklahoma City by at least 38. In that scenario, both the Warriors and Wolves would have at least a plus-35 point differential, and whichever team finished second in Group C would get the wild card (with a tie going to Minnesota because of its head-to-head victory).

Tuesday’s games

Bulls at Celtics, 7:30 p.m. ET
Raptors at Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
Hawks at Cavaliers, 7:30 p.m. ET
Bucks at Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT
Hornets at Knicks, 7:30 p.m. ET
Thunder at Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
Rockets at Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Warriors at Kings, 10 p.m. ET on TNT

NBA in-season tournament standings

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FAQ

Why is this happening?

NBA commissioner Adam Silver has wanted to implement it for years, for a variety of reasons. Much like the play-in games, though, it took a long time for him to convince everyone involved to give it a shot.

The first hope, obviously, is that it generates revenue. The NBA believes the in-season tournament can become a significant moneymaking franchise over time because of the ability to sell its television rights — as it did with the WNBA’s version of the event.

The other hope is to draw more eyeballs to the league. The stretch of time the tournament is set within — from the start of November through the first week of December — might be the most irrelevant part of the NBA schedule.

It’s after the initial rush of the season starting, and alongside the college football and NFL regular seasons. If this tournament can bring more attention to the sport during its least relevant time of the year, it will be seen as a victory.

What is the format?

Silver has long been fascinated with European soccer, and the basis for the NBA’s in-season tournament lies in the cup tournaments across Europe. In those leagues, there is a regular-season championship, determined by the team with the most points over the full year, and then a separate tournament (or, in some leagues, multiple tournaments) that runs concurrently with the league season.

Unlike European soccer tournaments, though, which all are played outside of the league schedule, the NBA Cup is built into the NBA’s regular-season schedule. The 30 teams were split up into six five-team groups.

The four group stage games will be played on seven November dates: four Fridays (Nov. 3, 10, 17 and 24) and three Tuesdays (Nov. 14, 21 and 28).

The quarterfinals will be played Dec. 4 and 5 at the higher-seeded team, and the semifinals and championship game will be Dec. 7 and 9 in Las Vegas.

How will this impact the regular-season schedule and standings?

Typically, the NBA sends out a full 82-game schedule in mid-August. This year, though, the league only sent 80 games, with a gap in the schedule from Dec. 3-10. Each team’s final two regular-season games will be determined by how the in-season tournament plays out.

The 22 teams that fail to qualify for the knockout rounds of the in-season tournament will have their final two games scheduled — one at home and one on the road — on Dec. 6 and 8 against other teams eliminated in the group stage.

The East teams that lose in the quarterfinals and the West teams that lose in the quarterfinals will play each other on Dec. 7. The teams that lose in the semifinals in Las Vegas will have played their full allotment of 82 games, while the teams that reach the championship game will actually wind up playing 83 games — with the championship game not counting toward the regular-season standings.

Why does the NBA Cup include regular-season games?

Before its launch, one of the biggest questions surrounding the in-season tournament was why any team would be incentivized to compete in it. By making it part of the regular-season schedule, and making every game count toward the regular season — very important from a playoff tiebreaker standpoint — the NBA created a situation in which it is in teams’ interest to win these games.

If this had been set up like the cup tournaments in European soccer, there would’ve been nothing stopping NBA teams from opting out literally or figuratively, sitting all of their top players and getting extra rest time. Under this system, though, they’ll have every incentive to play and win.

What teams make up the groups?

To create the groups — which were separated by conferences — the NBA put all 15 teams in each conference into five pots, separated by their finish in last season’s standings. So: Pot 1 included the teams that finished 1-3 in regular-season record, teams 4-6 went into Pot 2, teams 7-9 in Pot 3, teams 10-12 in Pot 4 and teams 13-15 in Pot 5.

As a result, the following groups were drawn:

East Group A: Philadelphia 76ers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks, Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons

East Group B: Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Miami Heat, Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets

East Group C: Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors, Chicago Bulls, Orlando Magic

West Group A: Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns, LA Lakers, Utah Jazz, Portland Trail Blazers

West Group B: Denver Nuggets, LA Clippers, New Orleans Pelicans, Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets

West Group C: Sacramento Kings, Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs

What do players get for winning?

The players on the winning team will each get $500,000, while the runners-up will get $200,000. The losing players of the semifinals will each get $100,000, and the losing players of the quarterfinals will each get $50,000.

Will anyone earn individual honors for their play in NBA Cup games?

There will be a Most Valuable Player award for the in-season tournament, as well as an all-tournament team.

Will this have any impact on the playoffs?

Not beyond the games being regular-season games that count in the standings. While there was some debate among league insiders about guaranteeing a playoff berth as a reward for winning the tournament, ultimately that idea — or any other to further incentivize teams — was not enacted. The only playoff impact will come from the wins and losses accrued throughout the tournament.

Why is it called the NBA Cup?

Because it’s easy enough to change. In the short term, the NBA has said it went with the most basic of titles for both the tournament and its trophy — the “in-season tournament” and “NBA Cup” — as a way to introduce the concept to fans. However, using such bland, nondescript names has another clear advantage: When the league looks to sell the naming rights to both, it’ll be an easier transition from an unremarkable name than one connected with a specific individual (such as the late David Stern, one possibility that had been floated before the tournament was officially unveiled).