The NRF backs off claims that 'organized retail crime' accounted for half of inventory losses in 2021

The report, which was widely circulated in the media, was issued in April, but a Nov. 30 update removes the sentence claiming that “nearly half” of the inventory losses were due to coordinated thieves. Now the NRF says that data originated from two-year-old testimony that inferred the losses, bringing its accuracy into question.

Ben Dugan, former president of the Coalition of Law Enforcement and Retail, told the Senate in 2021 that organized retail crime accounted for $45 billion in annual retail losses. An NRF spokesperson says K2, the organization’s partner in creating the report, took that data and “an inference [was] made…linking the results of the NRF survey from 2021 and Ben Dugan’s statement made that same year.”

Retailers have said it’s hard to get a handle on exactly how much they lose to organized retail crime, which is defined as thieves who work in groups to shoplift or steal merchandise, then resell it on the black market. Over the past few quarters, an increasing number of retailers including Dick’s Sporting Goods and Ulta Beauty have been calling out rising theft, calling it a factor in shrinking profits. However, at least one investment bank has suggested claims of rampant theft are exaggerated.

In an updated, separate report in September, the NRF said retail crime was responsible for $112 billion in losses in 2022.

“We stand behind the widely understood fact that organized retail crime is a serious problem impacting retailers of all sizes and communities across our nation,” the NRF told Fortune. “At the same time, we recognize the challenges the retail industry and law enforcement have with gathering and analyzing an accurate and agreed-upon set of data to measure the number of incidents in communities across the country.”