NBA betting: Can anyone catch Embiid, Jokic in the MVP race?

Happy holidays!

Every year, the slate of games on Christmas Day marks an unofficial second opening day for the NBA, particularly for the fans who might have previously been focused more on the NFL.

This season, though, the first two months were as full of action as any NBA campaign in recent memory. The inaugural in-season tournament was a rousing success. The top 10 seeds in the Western Conference and the top eight in the Eastern Conference are all .500 or better. And we seem to get a historic NBA event at least once a week.

All this action has led to some outstanding individual performances, which has consequently juiced the NBA MVP race to the most competitive and wide-open free-for-all that we’ve seen in years. If ever.

According to the odds from ESPN BET, seven of the top 10 and nine of the top 13 MVP contenders will be in action on Christmas Day. (Editor’s note: Joel Embiid has been ruled out.) That makes this the perfect time for our monthly look at the MVP race and where the best futures value resides. Let’s explore.

Most Valuable Player

Leader:
Joel Embiid (+185)

In the hunt:
Nikola Jokic (+275)
Luka Doncic (+550)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+800)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1000)

Long shots:
Jayson Tatum (+2500)
Anthony Edwards (+5000)
LeBron James (+10,000)

Embiid distancing himself from the pack?

Embiid has taken the lead in the MVP race by dint of a historic run of 13 straight games (and counting) of at least 30 points and 10 rebounds. This is the longest such streak in the NBA since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar did it over 16 straight games during the 1971-72 season.

Embiid won last season’s MVP with a career campaign, and through two months this season, he is playing at an even higher level. He leads the NBA with 35.0 points per game and is averaging more points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and 3-pointers per contest than last season while shooting 54.0% from the field and a career-best 89.3% from the foul line.

According to basketball-reference, when Embiid is on the court this season, the 76ers are outscoring their opponents by 12.9 points per 100 possessions (PP100), the best mark of his career. Each of the previous two players to win MVP (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic) went on to win a second one the following season. Right now, Embiid is on pace to follow in their footsteps.

The Joker is still right there too

Jokic was the MVP favorite at our one-month check-in, and he is still just behind Embiid in this race. Jokic has increased his scoring (26.7 PPG) and rebounding (12.3 per game) since last season, and he is in the hunt to average a triple-double on the season while also dishing out 9.2 assists per game.

When Jokic is on the court, the Nuggets outscore their opponents by 11.6 PP100, but when he is not, Denver is outscored by 8.7 PP100, giving him an elite on-court/off-court +/- of 20.3 PP100. The Nuggets are in second place in the Western Conference and the Northwest Division behind the upstart Minnesota Timberwolves, and as long as Denver is in contention, Jokic will remain an MVP front-runner.

Why Luka is a more serious contender this season

Doncic has been putting up MVP-caliber numbers for years but hasn’t had the team success to seriously challenge for the award. This season, he is on pace for career highs in scoring (32.7 PPG) and assists (9.1), and like Jokic, Doncic could approach a triple-double average while also grabbing 8.4 boards per game.

He has the Dallas Mavericks in first place in the Southwest Division, and if he can keep his team in contention as the season progresses, it would bolster his MVP case.

SGA in OKC for MVP?

Early in the season, I wrote that it was time to start considering Gilgeous-Alexander a legitimate MVP contender, but that in order to earn the honor, he would have to “establish a baseline of every-game availability, slightly increase his impact on his team’s ability to win and continue to build with his teammates until they can consistently win more than 75% of their games and earn a top seed.”

Almost two months later, Gilgeous-Alexander is doing an excellent job of hitting those marks. He has played in every game but one so far, and his on-court impact is the best of his career. The Oklahoma City Thunder are outscoring opponents by 13.7 PP100 with Gilgeous-Alexander on the court and are being outscored when he is off, for a sparkling +19.2 on/off +/-. And the Thunder are winning 67% of their games for the third-best record in the Western Conference.

Don’t forget about Giannis

It speaks to the amazing quality of MVP-level play in the NBA that Antetokounmpo has slid to the fifth-best odds to win the award after opening the season as the favorite (+550), despite him producing better stats than in the two seasons when he was named MVP.

Antetokounmpo is averaging more than 30 PPG for the second season in a row while shooting a career-best 60.3% from the field. He has four 40-10 points-rebounds double-doubles thus far, including two 50-10s, highlighted by setting a franchise record with 64 points and 14 rebounds less than two weeks ago.

Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks have lapsed a bit on defense, which is probably what keeps him a bit behind the other MVP favorites. But he is very much in the race. Despite a relatively slow start as the team acclimated Damian Lillard to the mix and Khris Middleton recovered from off-season surgery, Antetokounmpo has the Bucks only a half-game out from the best record in the NBA and sporting the longest current win streak of seven games.

Why Tatum, Edwards and LeBron also have a shot

Tatum and Edwards are both long shots of interest because they’ve led their teams to the best records in the NBA.

Tatum’s numbers are slightly down in volume this season, but this was expected after the Boston Celtics added two All-Stars in the offseason in Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday. With Jaylen Brown also on the squad, there were always going to be fewer opportunities for Tatum on offense. Even so, Tatum remains the leading scorer on a Celtics team that would be the top seed in the East if the season ended today, and he is on pace for the most efficient shooting season of his career (47.6 FG%).

Edwards is averaging career marks in scoring (24.8 PPG) and assists (5.1) but has burst into the MVP race by leading the Timberwolves to the top of the Western Conference. He entered the season with plenty of buzz after averaging 31.6 PPG in the playoffs last season then earning a leadership position on the United States team at the FIBA World Cup over the summer. But it is his impact on the court and the Timberwolves’ surprising (to everyone but me, as I’ve been touting Minnesota as elite for more than a year now) success that has him in the MVP race. The Wolves are outscoring their opponents by 11.8 PP100 with Edwards on the court and are being outscored when he goes to the bench.

Finally, let’s look at James. He is averaging more than 25 PPG, 7 RPG and 7 APG while shooting 54% from the field and playing in 90% of the Los Angeles Lakers‘ games. James has hit all of those marks three previous times in his career: 2012-13, 2016-17 and 2017-18. His team made the NBA Finals in each of those campaigns; and in one of them, he was named both regular-season MVP and Finals MVP. And this season, James already has been named the first MVP of the in-season tournament. Just saying. That’s pretty good for a guy getting 100-1 odds to win this season’s MVP.