Who will be the UFC champions on Dec. 31, 2024?

In 2023, UFC champions put their belts up for grabs 16 times, and on six of those occasions the challenger walked out of the cage with the gold. If you add in the three bouts for vacant titles it becomes clear how turbulent the year was. Of the promotion’s 12 title belts, only four ended ’23 in the hands of the same person who held it last Jan. 1. Who would have predicted that?

Not me, that’s for sure. As I launch into my third annual attempt to forecast who will be the UFC’s champs at the end of the coming year, I will share the most important — yet counterintuitive — thing I have learned: Go big. In 2022, seven titles changed hands. This year, nine title fights ended with new champs crowned.

How did I do with my 2023 predictions? I forecast six title changes but leaned too heavily into the glorious past, predicting that three former champs — Israel Adesanya, Kamaru Usman and Jiří Procházka — would regain their thrones. Adesanya did but was deposed again before the year was out. Only my Sean O’Malley and Alexandre Pantoja darts hit the bull’s-eye. I guess I was not imaginative enough to envision Sean Strickland and the 205-pound version of Alex Pereira ending the year with gold.

So let’s give it another try. For 2024, I’m going with six new champions.

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Middleweight: Khamzat Chimaev

This guy has been a champion-in-waiting seemingly forever. The explosive start to his UFC career was the stuff of legend, though the COVID pandemic slowed his roll in a way no opponent could. Chimaev is now looking to take over at middleweight and I don’t see anyone stopping him — at least not either of the amiable gentlemen who’ll have a dance-off for the title on Jan. 20.

I have difficulty envisioning Strickland getting through all of 2024 with the belt. It’ll be a significant accomplishment, in fact, if he gets past Dricus du Plessis in their UFC 297 rematch — this one inside the cage. Du Plessis is undefeated in the UFC, with all but one of his six wins in the Octagon coming by finish. No matter. In my mind, whoever wins will be a stepping stone for Chimaev.

But can Chimaev hold on to the belt I’ve just awarded him, once Adesanya and Robert Whittaker come looking for him? Either of them could put this prediction in severe jeopardy.

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Women’s flyweight: Erin Blanchfield

I wouldn’t say Blanchfield would be a slam dunk pick if she were to face current champ Alexa Grasso. And if Grasso were to lose the belt, it might not even happen against Blanchfield, should the UFC instead elect to give Valentina Shevchenko another chance to win back her old title, or if the matchmakers grant Grasso and strawweight titlist Zhang Weili their wish and book a champ-vs.-champ superfight in April. But I’m going to stick with Blanchfield as this division’s standout.

The 24-year-old has developed a strong enough striking game to hang with Grasso for stretches, but surely she’d want to get the fight to the canvas — Blanchfield’s world. However, her unwavering self-confidence is more essential than any of her physical skills. “Cold Blooded” fully believes she is on her way to being a champion, and I believe it too.

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Light heavyweight: Jiří Procházka

A year ago, I predicted Procházka would hold the belt at the end of 2023. In my predictions leading into 2022, I also had him finishing as the champ. Detecting a trend here? So yes, why not 2024?

Admittedly, I was incorrect twice, but Procházka was close both times, which encourages me for ’24. He won the title in June 2022, but before the year ended he suffered a severe shoulder injury and had to vacate the championship. He returned from the injury last month in a fight for the vacant title but lost by knockout to Pereira.

I still believe in Procházka, though. He’s physically and mentally strong, fearless and creative. And while it won’t be easy to wrest the belt away from Pereira, I think (again) this will be Procházka’s year.

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Welterweight: Shavkat Rakhmonov

Leon Edwards looked like a champion a little over a week ago at UFC 296 — and so did Rakhmonov, who was so dominant that some are foolishly calling for him to leapfrog the deserving next title challenger, Belal “Remember the Name and the 10-Fight Unbeaten Streak” Muhammad.

Rakhmonov, whose solution to MMA’s chronically bad judging is his 18 finishes in 18 career fights, has earned the right to wait for the winner of Edwards vs. Muhammad. I could envision either of them taking Rakhmonov where he’s never been before — to a (gasp) decision — but I don’t see either of them beating him.

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Men’s bantamweight: Cory Sandhagen

I feel like I’m going out on a limb with this prediction. I expect O’Malley to retain the title when he fights Marlon Vera at UFC 299 in March — “Suga Sean” has had a bee in his rainbow bonnet since the 2020 loss to “Chito,” the only blemish on his record. So he’ll be up for that one, and something spectacular could be in store.

Once Sandhagen returns from a biceps tear, he should be lined up for a shot at O’Malley, which would be a great fight. I would lean toward Sandhagen in that matchup — and I’d lean even further if the guy he has to take the belt from is Vera (whom he beat by unanimous decision in a five-round UFC Fight Night main event in March) or the winner of the February meeting between Merab Dvalishvili and Henry Cejudo, should the survivor of that fight get next.

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Women’s bantamweight: Valentina Shevchenko

Two years ago, in a story like this one, I predicted that this division’s champ would be Shevchenko. At the time, she owned the flyweight title, and Julianna Peña was in the midst of her short reign at 135 pounds. I thought Amanda Nunes might not fight for a while, setting the stage for Shevchenko to become the latest champ-champ.

That didn’t happen and it likely won’t in 2024, either, because Shevchenko no longer holds the title at 125. But unless she is hell-bent on regaining her old crown, this would be a good time to move up a division. The bantamweight title is currently vacant, although Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva will fight for it on Jan. 20. That leaves plenty of time in 2024 for someone to swoop in and take a shot. Why not Shevchenko?

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The divisions standing pat

Heavyweight: Jon Jones won’t return from injury to defend his title until well into the year, and Dana White has somehow convinced himself that Jones vs. 41-year-old, idle-for-three-years Stipe Miocic is the fight fans want to see. There was a time when it was, but that time has passed. Make way for the new breed of big guys, led by Tom Aspinall. But whether Jones’ challenger is Miocic or Aspinall, I fully expect the GOAT to be one and done in 2024 — and hold the belt until he’s ready to step aside.

Lightweight: You think someone will knock Islam Makhachev off his throne? Really? Who? Superman? Andre the Giant?

Men’s featherweight: Alexander Volkanovski has held the strap for four full years, making him the longest-reigning champion in the UFC, with more than twice as many defenses as any other current titlist. Undefeated Ilia Topuria will be no pushover on Jan. 20, and bouncing back and forth between 145 and 155 pounds could tax the champ. But I’ve got to ride with Volk.

Men’s flyweight: UFC 296 sewed it up for me that Alexandre Pantoja is the Volkanovski of this division.

Strawweight: Or maybe Pantoja is the Zhang of his division. That would be a high compliment, being compared to the pound-for-pound No. 1, who, like Pantoja, seems to operate at a different speed from anyone she’s in the cage with. Whether or not she gets a shot at adding the flyweight title at UFC 300, I believe 2024 will end with Zhang still the strawweight champ.

Women’s featherweight: (This line is intentionally left blank.)