How the Tyrese Haliburton injury impacts awards races, Pacers futures

Indiana Pacers star guard Tyrese Haliburton took an awkward fall in Monday night’s win over the Celtics and had to be carried off the Gainbridge Fieldhouse floor. It looked devastating, but fortunately for the Pacers it looks like they avoided catastrophe. Haliburton will miss at least two weeks with a hamstring strain, and then be reevaluated to see where he is in his recovery.

Indiana has been one of the most entertaining surprises in the league. It is 21-15, good for sixth in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers made the inaugural In-Season Tournament championship game. The Pacers are averaging 127.0 points, which if they can maintain would be an NBA single-season record for scoring.

Now that we know Haliburton is going to miss time, how should we modify our approach to betting Pacers games? I’m glad you asked.

Betting player futures

If you’re holding a Haliburton MVP ticket, I’m sorry. Haliburton will have almost certainly no shot to win the award due to missing this much time. He’s currently +4000, tied with Jayson Tatum for sixth-shortest odds in the league. Do not bet that. It’s over.

I feel similarly about those holding a Haliburton Most Improved Player ticket, too. He’s currently +1800 which is fourth-shortest in the league. Do not bet that, either. Tyrese Maxey is the odds on favorite at -200, followed by Alperen Sengun and Scottie Barnes. Unless all of those players end up getting hurt for a substantial period of time, Haliburton has no chance.

Betting Pacers sides/totals/props

Indiana has been a profitable play for bettors. It’s 21-15 ATS overall (IST final excluded), 20-13 ATS when Haliburton plays.

Obviously, the books are going to adjust spreads in Pacers games to account for the absence of Haliburton, but I’m still not interested in betting on them much. He’s such an integral and important piece of their team.

With Haliburton on the floor, the Pacers net rating is +6.4 which would rank fourth among all teams in the NBA. When Haliburton is off the floor? That net rating plummets to -4.0, which would rank 25th in the league. He’s worth more than 10 points per 100 possessions to his team’s output.

I’ll wait to see how they play in the interim, but I feel like I’m going to look for opportunities to bet against the Pacers, especially when they play superior competition. What might be actionable right now, though, is betting T.J. McConnell player props. McConnell is an outstanding per minute producer and has the requisite skill to run the offense the way Haliburton has this season.

I will be firing on assists totals and points totals going over for McConnell as soon as lines are posted. With Haliburton off the floor, McConnell has averaged 18.4 points and 12.8 assists per 36 minutes. He’s a double-double machine, just like his teammate.

As far as betting the total in Pacers games, I’m actually going to keep firing on the over. The sportsbooks are going to make a major adjustment due to this injury. The average total in an Indiana game has been 244.0. In the three games that Haliburton did not play, the average total was 236.5.

I’m not so sure the output in Indiana games is going to drop off all that much due to what I said above about McConnell filling in. Not only is McConnell extremely efficient on offense, he’s also a well below-average defender. Pacers games should still be fun to watch.