Midseason predictions: Are we headed for a South Carolina-UCLA women's NCAA title game?

Pack away the holiday decorations and toss out the leftovers: We’re into January and conference play. It’s time to pick up speed on the way to Cleveland, where the 2023-24 women’s college basketball national champion will be crowned.

South Carolina, last season’s undefeated-until-the-Final Four team, is doing it again with a different cast of leading characters holding down the No. 1 ranking. LSU went through early-season drama but is looking more like the defending NCAA champ expected. Led by UCLA, the Pac-12 might have the most compelling league race of all as the conference is about to dissolve.

Freshmen across the country have proved more than ready for prime time, one of the most positive aspects of a season that has already had more than a handful of heartbreaking injuries.

Major milestones are looming. Stanford‘s Tara VanDerveer is three wins from passing former Duke men’s coach Mike Krzyzewski for most college basketball career coaching victories. Iowa guard Caitlin Clark is on pace to become the NCAA women’s scoring leader in February.

ESPN’s Charlie Creme, Alexa Philippou and Michael Voepel break down what we’ve seen in the first half of the regular season, predict what’s to come and make updated picks for March Madness.

You’ve got a Sharpie and need to fill in your bracket. Which teams are you confident will reach the Final Four?

Creme: South Carolina looks outstanding. Statistically, the Gamecocks are better than last year, and that team didn’t lose until the Final Four. Dawn Staley still coaches the best defense in the country and now has the offense to match. UCLA has already beaten four top-25 NET opponents, tops in the country. Put the Bruins in too. Those two picks seem easy, right?

The other two remain a mystery. I will go with two teams that opened the season playing each other: LSU and Colorado. The Tigers were the preseason No. 1 for a reason, and with the drama of November seemingly behind them, they might have too much talent to fall short of Cleveland. Beating LSU in Las Vegas on Nov. 6 put the Buffaloes on the national radar, and they could ride their experience — four starters in their fourth or fifth year of college basketball — to the Final Four.

Philippou: South Carolina and UCLA were the teams I felt confident Sharpie-ing in a month ago. But I’m not confident enough in anyone else to decisively project a third and fourth Cleveland-bound club.

Voepel: We’re unanimous on the Gamecocks. Nobody else is quite as Sharpie-worthy, but LSU seems a good bet, too. UCLA is the best program in women’s basketball to not reach the NCAA Final Four — the Bruins won the 1978 AIAW title — and that millstone remains until it happens. This could be the year.

There are many other possibilities, based in part on bracket matchups. Despite injuries and losses to top teams so far, UConn is likely to get into the Albany region, and that city has been good to the Huskies in past NCAA tournaments.

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How has your All-America team changed? Who’s in, who’s out?

Creme: I felt good about Clark, UConn’s Paige Bueckers and Stanford’s Cameron Brink in the preseason and am even more confident about them as All-Americans today. According to Her Hoop Stats’ win shares metric, no two players contribute to their team winning more than Clark and Brink, and the Hawkeyes and Cardinal are a combined 29-2. Bueckers has modified her game to help the Huskies adjust amid all their injuries and has thrived, scoring over 20 points per game on 62% shooting in her past seven games.

I will revise my picks of LSU’s Angel Reese and Indiana’s Mackenzie Holmes. Although both have been very good, neither has been as good as Alissa Pili, who is carrying Utah with incredible efficiency, and USC‘s JuJu Watkins, who is nearly as must-see-TV as Clark.

Voepel: I had the same preseason five as Charlie, and it’s a cinch to stick with Clark, Brink and Bueckers. They’ve been outstanding. If Watkins keeps up her success through the Pac-12 season, she’s likely to make it. There are good cases to be made for Pili, UCLA’s Lauren Betts, both Reese and Aneesah Morrow of LSU, and let’s not rule out Virginia Tech‘s Elizabeth Kitley, either.

The interesting thing is that the overall best team, South Carolina, is so balanced that the Gamecocks likely won’t have a first-team All-American.

Philippou: I had Clark and Bueckers in the preseason, and both of them are looking good as All-America prospects. I also projected Pili (but not Brink), and I think those two will make it. For the fifth spot, I’m leaning toward Watkins for the job she’s doing carrying USC but definitely want to see how she finishes Pac-12 play. The others Michael mentioned remain in contention.

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What has been the best surprise so far this season?

Philippou: I don’t think many would’ve guessed South Carolina and UCLA would have separated themselves onto a tier of their own as the final undefeated teams — they weren’t even picked to win their respective conferences! The Gamecocks becoming the nation’s top 3-point-shooting squad wasn’t expected but has been striking — and made possible by the additions of Te-Hina Paopao and MiLaysia Fulwiley, plus the growth of Raven Johnson and Bree Hall. The way they’ve seamlessly transitioned into this post-Freshies era earned Dawn Staley my coach of the year vote.

Many saw a path for the Bruins to be very good, but not necessarily one of the clear top-two teams in the country behind a thriving Lauren Betts. Between Betts’ inside presence, Kiki Rice and Charisma Osborne forming one of the most dynamic backcourts in the country, and the Bruins’ complementary pieces (such as Londynn Jones, Angela Dugalic and Gabriela Jaquez), Cori Close’s group has the makings of a potential championship team. I’m eager to see how each will fare in conference play — especially UCLA in a loaded Pac-12.

Creme: Just how good this freshman class is. Most recruiting experts felt this class could be special, but this good, this soon? USC’s Watkins, Notre Dame‘s Hannah Hidalgo, LSU’s Mikaylah Williams, South Carolina’s Fulwiley and Texas‘ Madison Booker could make up an All-America team right now. NC State’s Zoe Brooks and Arkansas‘ Taliah Scott could come off the bench and the team wouldn’t miss a beat. Without rookies KK Arnold and Ashlynn Shade, UConn wouldn’t be surviving another rash of injuries.

And it’s more than just exceptional talent and big numbers. Some on this list look like generational players. Watkins, in particular, has stood out, exceeding already sky-high expectations. She has instantly made the Trojans more relevant than they have been in nearly 40 years. Watkins and Hidalgo are the second- and third-leading scorers in Division I.

Voepel: As Charlie says, the freshmen are the overarching story of this season, which bodes well for the college game since some big stars will go to the WNBA this year and next.

Look at a squad such as Iowa State, which lost three full-time starters from last season when the Cyclones won the Big 12 tournament. But led by freshmen Addy Brown and Audi Crooks, they have started 4-0 in conference play. There are always outstanding freshmen, but this year many immediately stepped into big roles.

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What has been the biggest disappointment or letdown?

Voepel: Not to pour salt in the Lady Vols’ wounds, but Tennessee was the preseason No. 11 team in the country. Rarely has the program been in the position where one player seems to be so pivotal in making the NCAA tournament as the Lady Vols are now with Rickea Jackson, a fifth-year senior who has played in only six of 14 games due to injury. And in a season when there is so much talk about first-year stars, Tennessee has no freshmen currently playing.

Maryland is another team that was top-15 in the preseason poll. But the Terps lost big in their marquee nonconference games and have started Big Ten play 2-2.

Creme: Injuries to so many key players has been the most discouraging part of an otherwise fascinating season. Too many teams haven’t been, and won’t be, at full strength. UConn’s Azzi Fudd, Texas’ Rori Harmon, Utah’s Gianna Kneepkens, LSU’s Sa’Myah Smith and Ole Miss‘ KK Deans won’t play again this season, and that’s merely a partial list. Notre Dame’s Olivia Miles, TCU‘s Sedona Prince, and UConn’s Caroline Ducharme and Aubrey Griffin might not, either.

That doesn’t even count players like the Irish’s Sonia Citron (just returned after missing eight games) or NC State’s River Baldwin (expected to miss the next two to three weeks) who have missed a portion of the season. Injuries happen every season, but considering how well the likes of Harmon and Prince were playing, or how important Kneepkens and Deans were to their teams, this year seems more discouraging.

Philippou: It’s got to be the injuries for the reasons Charlie outlined above. Tennessee’s Jackson also missed significant time to injury, and the Lady Vols sorely needed her, going 7-5 in nonconference play (the majority of which the potential WNBA lottery pick missed). But even since she has returned, Tennessee has struggled against the likes of Auburn and Kentucky, and it isn’t particularly close to being included in Charlie’s latest Bracketology. The Lady Vols have ground to make up to ensure they don’t miss out on the NCAA tournament for the first time in program history.

Ohio State also hasn’t taken the leap I suspected it would after its first Elite Eight appearance in 30 years. Perhaps that’s a testament to Taylor Mikesell’s missed value, but it also seems as if Cotie McMahon still needs to take that next step for the Buckeyes to truly contend.

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What storyline are you watching most closely over the next two months?

Creme: The Pac-12 race. But it goes deeper than who wins the title. The conference has consistently dominated the top seeds in Bracketology to this point. Can that hold when the teams are playing, and beating, each other? Ten of the league’s 12 teams are among the top 50 of the NET. There aren’t any nights off.

With that much quality, the Pac-12 will be the key to the top 16 teams and perhaps even the No. 1 seeds and the bubble. USC’s next three games, for example, are against UCLA, Colorado and Utah, three teams that a week ago were all top-four seeds.

UCLA is South Carolina’s top competition for the country’s best team, but the gauntlet the Bruins will go through the next two months significantly exceeds what the Gamecocks will see in the SEC. Can UCLA survive it to stay a No. 1 seed?

Philippou: In the Big Ten, how the rest of Iowa develops around Clark, so she doesn’t have to shoulder quite as much of the load as she has been.

In the ACC, will any of its teams really separate themselves as elite (maybe the answer, despite the loss Sunday, is NC State, or perhaps Virginia Tech will follow the trajectory it did last year and come into its own in conference play).

And in the SEC, whether/how quickly Tennessee starts to come along. And Jan. 25, when South Carolina plays at LSU.

Voepel: Will South Carolina maintain great 3-point shooting? The lack of that hurt the Gamecocks in the 2023 national semifinals.

The Big 12 hopes to make up for being shut out of the Sweet 16 last year, the first time that had happened to the league. I picked Baylor to win the Big 12, with deep guard play plus the return of forward Dre’Una Edwards (who had to sit out last season) solidifying the Bears. But there’s real competition in the Big 12, as shown by Kansas’ upset of No. 4 Baylor on Wednesday. Now the conference leaders are No. 12 Kansas State and Iowa State.

The four newcomers to the Big 12 — BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston — started 0-3. Will they get up to speed as league play goes on? That quartet played each other Wednesday, with Cincinnati and Houston winning

And there’s the Clark watch, as she closes in on Kelsey Plum’s NCAA career scoring record, tries to lead Iowa back to the Final Four, and decides whether to return to college for a fifth season or be the Indiana Fever’s No. 1 pick.

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Make a bold prediction for March

Philippou: Capping a season full of the unexpected, three No. 1 seeds bow out before the Final Four, marking the first time since 2016 that a sole 1-seed advances to the national semifinals.

Voepel: After last season’s early-round flameouts, the Big 12 will have at least three teams advance to the Sweet 16 — although one of them will be soon-to-depart Texas.

Creme: The ACC will lead the country with nine teams in the NCAA tournament, but only three will reach the Sweet 16 — and none will make the Final Four. With the exception of NC State and Virginia Tech, the ACC looks to be a deep collection of very-good-but-not-great teams. It will make a compelling regular-season race and a potentially fascinating ACC tournament, but not a national champion. Of course, Louisville will make the Elite Eight for the sixth consecutive year because, somehow, Jeff Walz always finds a way.

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Updated midseason predictions

Which teams will reach the Final Four?

Creme: South Carolina, UCLA, LSU, Colorado
Philippou: South Carolina, UCLA, LSU, NC State
Voepel: South Carolina, LSU, UCLA, UConn

Which team will win the NCAA title?

Creme: UCLA over South Carolina
Philippou: UCLA over South Carolina
Voepel: South Carolina over LSU

Who will be the national player of the year?

Creme: Caitlin Clark, Iowa
Philippou: Caitlin Clark, Iowa
Voepel: Caitlin Clark, Iowa

Who will be coach of the year?

Creme: Dawn Staley, South Carolina
Philippou: Dawn Staley, South Carolina
Voepel: Dawn Staley, South Carolina

Who will be freshman of the year?

Creme: JuJu Watkins, USC
Philippou: JuJu Watkins, USC
Voepel: JuJu Watkins, USC

Which players will make the All-America first team?

Creme: Cameron Brink, Stanford; JuJu Watkins, USC; Alissa Pili, Utah; Paige Bueckers, UConn; Caitlin Clark, Iowa

Philippou: Cameron Brink, Stanford; Paige Bueckers, UConn; Caitlin Clark, Iowa; Alissa Pili, Utah; JuJu Watkins, USC

Voepel: Caitlin Clark, Iowa; Paige Bueckers, UConn; Cameron Brink, Stanford; JuJu Watkins, USC; Angel Reese, LSU