Expert picks: Who will win the 2024 Australian Open titles?
Can Novak Djokovic further cement his place in history by winning a 25th Grand Slam title? Or maybe Jannik Sinner will break through for his first?
And speaking of firsts, can Ons Jabeur, a three-time Grand Slam finalist, finally win it all? Or will Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina or defending champ Aryna Sabalenka take the title?
Our experts make their predictions as the Australian Open starts Sunday.
Who do you think will win the men’s singles title and why?
Pam Shriver: How can you not pick the guy who has won 10 Australian Opens and came within one match of winning all four majors last year? Djokovic is the favorite, but Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune are waiting if his level drops.
Rennae Stubbs: Djokovic is the favorite again. There is no one better in a major than Djokovic, especially here in Melbourne. His record here is unmatched, and over five sets he will once again hold the trophy.
Patrick McEnroe: It’s time for Sinner. He had a great finish to 2023, and he’s ready to take the next step.
Brad Gilbert: If anyone other than Djokovic is to win it, I’d pick Sinner. He is looking very ready, and is capable of winning a Slam this year. But I’d have to see someone beat Djokovic on Centre Court to believe he can be beaten.
Jarryd Barca: In 2024, it’s Sinner’s time. The 22-year-old appears primed to win a maiden Australian Open after a brilliant 2023 season, in which he won ATP titles in Toronto, Beijing and Vienna, and took care of Djokovic during Italy’s Davis Cup triumph in November. He’s reached at least a quarterfinal in every Grand Slam, gets his preferred court surface in Melbourne and, as we’ve seen time and again, has enough tools in his arsenal to topple the world’s best players under pressure.
Bill Connelly: I am all-in on 2024 being a breakthrough year for Sinner, but I’m not brave enough to pick anyone other than Djokovic here, not when he’s won 28 straight Australian Open matches, and not when he’s lost to just three players in a best-of-five since 2019. Granted, two of those players are in this field (Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev), but he went 5-2 against those two in 2023, too. He remains the gold standard.
Tom Hamilton: So without meaning to be too predictable, it’s going to be Djokovic. He teased with potentially winning the Golden Slam in 2021 with the delayed Olympics, only to come unstuck in Tokyo and then falling at the US Open final to Medvedev. But with the tantalizing chance of winning all five majors on offer this year, it could be his last realistic opportunity to go for the clean sweep. He’ll be pushed close by Sinner, while Alcaraz has a tricky path to a potential final, but Djokovic will open up 2024 with his 25th Slam.
D’Arcy Maine: At this point it feels foolish to pick anyone not named Novak Djokovic. He’s the defending champion — and has won the Australian Open title a staggering 10 times — and claimed three of the four majors and the ATP Finals in 2023. He said his goal for the new season was to win the Golden Slam and somehow that highly elusive milestone seems well within reach. That quest, of course, starts in Melbourne. Sure, there are several other talented men who are capable of playing two great weeks of tennis, but I just don’t see anyone beating Djokovic at one of his favorite tournaments. Not in a best-of-five, nor with so much history on the line.
Jake Michaels: Djokovic. Is it a boring answer? Maybe. But you don’t need to overthink this one. Djokovic has dominated the first Slam of the year, hoisting the trophy 10 times and boasting a 95% win rate at Melbourne Park since 2008. There’s even more at stake than usual this year, with the chance at moving ahead of Margaret Court and into outright first for major singles titles. With his legacy and GOAT claims on the line, you’d almost be surprised if he didn’t win it.
Matt Walsh: It seems like it’s time for a fresh change, all due respect to Djokovic, who has looked a little underwhelming and injured in Australia so far (though, we know that means little — remember his 7 centimeter abdominal tear?). Sinner seems most likely. He had a wonderful run home in 2023 which culminated in a Davis Cup victory with Italy. In that run? Wins over Djokovic and Alex de Minaur. Before that, Sinner fell only to Djokovic at the ATP Finals (after beating him in the round-robin stages), taking down some big names in the process. Now world No. 4 and still just 22, maybe Sinner’s time is coming quicker than we think.
Which men’s player outside of the top 10 could surprise?
Shriver: I will go with a group of Americans who are all outside the top 10 to make a strong push. One could be a surprise winner, something the Australian Open used to have frequently on the men’s side. Sebastian Korda, Frances Tiafoe, Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz and last year’s semifinalist Tommy Paul could all go on a deep run in Melbourne.
Stubbs: Karen Khachanov. He’s done well here in the past and I think he can surprise once again.
McEnroe: Watch out for Grigor Dimitrov. I think he makes at least the final eight, and maybe goes even further.
Gilbert: My underdog pick is Jack Draper. He has a wicked lefty serve and if he can stay healthy this year, he can have a very big year.
Barca: Dimitrov has kicked off his new year in supreme fashion, defeating Denmark’s Holger Rune in the Brisbane International final and carrying forward the momentum from his impressive 2023. The Bulgarian’s unbeaten run in Paris until a clash with world No. 1 Djokovic — an event in which he triumphed over the likes of Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Hubert Hurkacz — showcased his rich vein of form.
The 32-year-old boasts not only one of the sport’s most wicked one-handed backhands, but also his highest ranking in over six years. He faces the prospect of Medvedev in the fourth round, but his recent performances suggest wins over more formidable opponents are much more than just a slim possibility.
Connelly: Dimitrov is probably the right answer, but I like Fritz’s draw quite a bit. The US Open quarterfinalist might get Marin Cilic in the third round and Tsitsipas in the fourth, but Cilic is still playing his way back from injury, and Tsitsipas has been hobbled for a while. A date with Djokovic could await in the quarters, but we’ll worry about that in the second week. He’s got a solid chance of making it that far, at least.
Hamilton: A lot of love here for Dimitrov and rightly so, so I’ll try to pivot in a different direction. I’ve tipped him to surprise in the past, but Draper is playing some brilliant tennis and reached the final of the Adelaide Open, so he’s coming into this with some form. He’s been on the wrong end of injuries in the past couple of years, but he’s building nicely and should make a run in Melbourne. Also keep a close eye on Dimitrov and Ben Shelton.
Maine: I’m going to channel Serena and Venus Williams here and pick their favorite player on the ATP Tour: Dimitrov. Entering the season, Dimitrov hadn’t won a title since 2017 but he opened 2024 in a big way and took home the trophy in Brisbane with an impressive run. Dimitrov enters the Australian Open brimming with rediscovered confidence and self-belief. It’s worth noting that he has reached the semifinals in Melbourne before — in 2017. The No. 13 seed’s road to the second week is favorable and while Medvedev would likely be his fourth-round opponent, Dimitrov won their last meeting in Paris in November. A potential rematch with Rune could then await in the quarterfinals.
Michaels: Khachanov reached the semifinals in Melbourne last year and backed it up with a run to the final eight at the French Open to jump inside the men’s top 10. However, the Russian then missed Wimbledon due to a spinal stress fracture, before suffering a first-round loss at the US Open. He’s now ranked 15th in the world but is fully capable of mixing it with just about every player above him. If he’s healthy, don’t be surprised to see Khachanov make another deep major run.
Walsh: Before the new year I would have said Shelton in a heartbeat — his story and energy was infectious at Melbourne Park last year, and he played some unbelievable tennis on the way to a very unlikely semifinal. However, his form in Brisbane and Auckland to start the season has been a little underwhelming. The world No. 15 has the game to match it with the world’s best, and he does like the Melbourne courts, so maybe he can recapture the form that saw him send a statement to the tennis world in 2023.
Who will win the women’s singles title and why?
Shriver: Swiatek is looking as though she could get the third leg of her career Grand Slam here in Melbourne. (She’s won the French Open three times, and the US Open once.) Since she lost the No. 1 ranking for a while last year, Swiatek has relaxed more and worked on a few tweaks to her game. Her forehand is still the most feared groundstroke in woman’s tennis.
Stubbs: I’m going to go with Swiatek. There are so many players you could pick in this situation. But I think Swiatek is primed to finally get the job done in Melbourne.
McEnroe: Swiatek runs away from the field. She is becoming more comfortable being at the top … and she’s so darn athletic.
Barca: Last year’s runner-up and world No. 3 Rybakina already turned the tables on Sabalenka — last year’s winner — with a dominant straight sets win in the Brisbane International final. But it’s the way in which she breezed through that tournament — dropping just 15 games in five matches — that showcased her true dominance.
In the way of her claiming a second Grand Slam win stands a brutal opening-round clash against former world No. 1 Karolina Pliskova and what seems a fairly open women’s singles draw in this tournament. But the 2022 Wimbledon champion is coming off a confidence-boosting 2023 season where she won a WTA 1000 title in Rome and was a runner-up in Miami, and has every reason to be breathing fire at Melbourne over the next two weeks.
Connelly: I love that you can talk yourself into any number of players making a run. I love how strong Rybakina has looked thus far in 2024, and I absolutely hate Swiatek’s draw — Sofia Kenin in the first round, with maybe Danielle Collins in the second and Jelena Ostapenko (against whom she’s 0-4) in the quarterfinals, all before maybe having to beat both Rybakina and Sabalenka. But I still trust Swiatek more than any other top player, and I think I’m just going to pick her in every Slam.
Hamilton: Rybakina has a great chance of winning her second Slam, while Sabalenka will also be there or thereabouts. But I’m going with Swiatek to open up 2024 with her fifth Slam title. She could end up facing Rybakina in the semifinals as they’re on the same side of the draw, but she won the end-of-season WTA Finals and then all five of her matches at the United Cup. She’s on a 16-match winning streak, and though she has a tough draw, Swiatek is building some decent form and is my pick to win the whole thing for the first time.
Maine: I have started — and deleted — this question a few times now because this one is tough. None of the top players have easy roads, and most don’t even have easy opening-round matches. This will come down to who can best handle a series of tough battles over the fortnight.
While my answer will almost definitely change over the next few days, I’m going with Rybakina. The 2022 Wimbledon champion reached the final in Melbourne last year and looked ready to do even more damage in 2024 during her title-winning run in Brisbane earlier this month. In the final, against reigning Aussie Open champion Sabalenka, she was absolutely dominant, allowing Sabalenka to win just three (!) games on the match. She will face Pliskova in a blockbuster opening match and if she can get past her, her next big test would likely come against No. 14 seed Daria Kasatkina in the fourth round. It’s anyone’s guess here, but Rybakina seems to have as good a chance as anyone.
Michaels: It’s time for Jabeur to win a major title! The Tunisian has been a mainstay in the top 10 for three years now, has reached the quarterfinal stage at all four majors and played in the final of three of the last six Slams. I’m not too concerned about her poor WTA Finals results — Jabeur won just four games in her two matches against Coco Gauff and Swiatek — and expect her to arrive in Melbourne refreshed and ready to tackle a new year.
Walsh: I’m on the Rybakina train. She already has form on the blue courts in Australia, having taken out the Brisbane International (and against Sabalenka, who beat Rybakina in the 2023 Australian Open final) and has looked extremely solid. It’s a tough one to pick, but I’ll back her to go one better in ’24.
Which women’s player outside of the top 10 could surprise?
Stubbs: Zheng Qinwen. Her improvement over the past 12 months has her primed for a big run here.
McEnroe: Caroline Wozniacki will have a strong run — she loves it here.
Barca: I’m looking directly at Elina Svitolina here, who returned to the tour in 2023 following a year off to give birth. The 29-year-old and former world No. 3 almost immediately reminded us of her quality when she claimed a title in Strasbourg last May, while she’s also made at least a quarterfinal at each Grand Slam.
She’s been drawn on the same side as Swiatek — who looms as a fourth-round opponent — which is not ideal, but her confidence will be high after beating Swiatek in last year’s Wimbledon quarterfinal. Svitolina’s first Grand Slam title still eludes her, but no one should be putting a limit on what she can accomplish at Melbourne Park. After all, she hasn’t won 17 WTA titles for no reason.
Connelly: Zheng has come a long way in a short amount of time, but while I should know better, I just can’t help it: Give me Ostapenko. With her omnipresent “go big on every shot” ethos, she’s a threat to beat or lose to any player in the field, but her dominance of Swiatek (and presence in Swiatek’s quarter) is a reminder that the 2017 French Open champ is still a threat to go on another one of those “paints every line for two straight weeks” runs. She’s 6-1 in 2024, and she’s made the quarterfinals of the last two hard-court Slams, too.
Hamilton: This is so fascinating, as there are several unknowns. We’ve got several returning Grand Slam winners in the mix with Osaka, Kerber and Wozniacki all back at Melbourne. That’s a lot of winning acumen. Svitolina is also primed to make a good run in Melbourne but I’m going to go for the box office Ostapenko. She won the Adelaide Open against Kasatkina and she’s certainly full of fire after that outburst against the umpire in her quarterfinal against Victoria Azarenka in Brisbane. So perhaps this is her time, even though she’ll have the Melbourne crowd against her when she plays Kimberly Birrell in the first round. If fuel, fire and form align then she’s going to be hard to stop.
Maine: It’s tough to fully know what to expect from Naomi Osaka in her first major back from maternity leave. Obviously there will be some rust and nerves on display, but she’s a two-time Australian Open champion for a reason. She’s played just two matches so far in her comeback but her ball-striking and movement has been impressive thus far and she doesn’t appear to be too far from her previous form.
If Osaka can get past Caroline Garcia in the first round — and that will most certainly be a challenge — she has a decent chance of continuing on and reaching the round of 16. If she were to advance that far, she would potentially face Gauff, which would be a compelling test as to where she stands against the top players in the game right now. Not to mention, how fun would an Osaka run be?
Michaels: This could either be a genius prediction or one that makes me look totally foolish, but I’ll take the chance and say Collins. The fiery American has a tricky-ish first-round match against former winner Angelique Kerber and then a likely second round encounter against world No. 1 and pre-tournament favorite Swiatek, but — and yes, it’s a big ”but” — if she wins through, the draw opens up enormously. Swiatek does dominate the pair’s head-to-head with a 6-1 advantage, but Collins’ one win came at the Australian Open two years ago, in one of her two runs — in just five appearances, mind you — to at least the final four. She certainly possesses the power; does she also have the composure?
Walsh: There are heaps of great stories in the women’s draw this year — headlined by returning names. Wozniacki, Kerber, Osaka have all been mentioned. An Osaka deep run would be great to watch, as D’Arcy says above. After a challenging first-round match, she could build some serious momentum and eye the second week here in Melbourne. She’s won two Slams here, including her most recent Slam victory in 2021. She loves the courts, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her pull off a fairytale run.
