NFL divisional round last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more

If I’m placing bets on a weekend, I’m not looking at full game spreads or totals. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. Instead, I’m looking for the obscure. It’s my specialty, anyway. It’s what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. If there’s an advantage to be found now, it’s in small markets.

So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into this weekend’s props.

Let’s start with defense, since that’s where we’ve had success this year.

Odds by ESPN BET.

Sacks

Justin Madubuike (BAL) under 0.5 sacks (-125)

Madubuike has burned me on this exact bet plenty of times year, but I’m sticking to my convictions. He has had an incredible season with 13.0 sacks, but his 7% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle — below the 10% average at the position — suggests his sack rate is unsustainable. I price the under at -282, which is probably underrating his chances due to all the simulated pressure Baltimore draws up in its defensive scheme, which helps pass-rushers. But directionally I feel confident: Madubuike is overrated by this price.

George Karlaftis (KC) under 0.5 sacks (-175)

The biggest factor we’ve talked about in this space all season is that the opposing quarterback is a significant driver in any sack forecasts. And that matters a ton right here: no one — not even Patrick Mahomes — was better at sack avoidance than Josh Allen, with a league-low 3.7% sack rate and 12.3% sack-to-pressure rate. Karlaftis might have had 10.5 sacks this season, but he also had only a 10% pass rush win rate at edge — 42nd out of 51 qualifiers at the position. I make the fair price -210.

See also:

Tackles + assists

Nick Bolton (KC) under 9.5 tackles + assists (-110)

Last season, Bolton racked up 180 tackles, but he just hasn’t been hitting the same numbers this season. In fact, in nine games played, he went over this line only twice. I project just 7.8 tackles + assists for Bolton.

Brandon Stephens (BAL) over 3.5 tackles + assists (-120)

Since Week 10, excluding the games C.J. Stroud missed, the Texans have been the fourth-most pass-heavy team over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. It makes sense: their passing offense is much better than their rushing offense. And we can expect an even more pass-heavy approach on Saturday, considering Houston is 9.5-point underdogs. All of this suggests there should be more tackle opportunities for Stephens, a corner who is on the field 99% of the time. I project 5.2 tackles + assists.

See also:

QB interceptions

Brock Purdy under 0.5 interceptions (-130)

I’m pretty surprised at this price, which is tied for the second-cheaper interception under Purdy has had all year. He had two games this year where the under was -200 or shorter! I’m taking the long view on the Packers’ defense, which is to say I still don’t believe it’s very good — as it hasn’t been for the entire season. And the 49ers are 9.5-point favorites. There’s little reason to think Purdy is as likely to throw a pick as this line suggests. I make the fair price on the under -160.

See also:

Jared Goff under 0.5 interceptions (+110)

Pass completions

Jared Goff under 23.5 completions (-105)

Detroit leans run-heavy in general: It has the sixth-lowest designed pass rate when win probability is between 15-85% and is below average in pass rate over expectation per NFL Next Gen Stats. And the Lions are solid favorites against the Bucs, which means we’re more likely to get a run-heavy game script from Detroit. Plus, the Bucs are a blitz-heavy team and leaguewide quarterbacks complete a lower percentage of their passes against the blitz (they just generate more yards per completion when they do connect, but that doesn’t matter for us here). My model forecasts 22.9 completions for Goff, so this is only a light lean.

Pass attempts

Jordan Love under 35.5 pass attempts (+100)

I know the expected game script is working against the under here, but this is just a high attempts line. It’s the second-highest he’s had all season (behind only last week’s 36.5, which he came nowhere close to (21) because Green Bay got up big early). Ultimately, we’re playing against the number and my forecast has Love at just 33.7 attempts.

Results

Last week

QB interceptions: 0-1 (-1.0 units)
Pass completions: 1-0 (+1.0 units)
Pass attempts: 0-1 (-1.0 units)
Receptions: 1-0 (+0.7 units)
Sacks: 4-1-3 (+2.2 units)
Tackles: 2-2 (0.7 units)
Overall: 8-5-3 (+1.4 units)

2023 season

QB interceptions: 19-25 (-2.2 units)
Pass completions: 10-10 (-0.8 units)
Pass attempts: 10-11 (-3.3 units)
Receptions: 11-2 (+7.4 units)
Sacks: 91-61-10 (+23.4 units)
Tackles: 73-63-1 (+8.3 units)
Defensive interceptions: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
D/ST touchdowns: 2-19 (-3.5 units)
Teasers: 2-2 (+0.4 units)
Weekly specials: 0-3 (-3.0 units)
Game props: 0-2 (-2.0 units)
Overall: 218-201-11 (+21.6 units)