Fantasy hockey heat index: Oshie, DeBrusk among hottest players of January

It’s been about a month since the NHL took a few days off for the Christmas break. Based on the change in production, some players had a more refreshing holiday break than others.

Let’s look at some of the players with the largest changes in fantasy points per game (FPPG) from before the break and since the break. The game sample on this side of the break is, obviously, much smaller than the two months that occurred prior, but there are still some players with hefty swings in production worth taking a closer look at.

Rested and refreshed

T.J. Oshie, W, Washington Capitals (92.6% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.05; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.98; Difference: 1.93

It would probably take a concerted effort toward failure for any player to have a slower pre-break showing than Oshie managed: four points across 21 games despite heaps of ice time and power-play opportunities. But he has come back from the break and an injury absence to pour it on during the past six games: six points including a hat trick. Oshie finds himself on what is arguably the Capitals top line with Max Pacioretty and Dylan Strome, while Alex Ovechkin joins the trio to form the top power-play unit with John Carlson. The Caps may not be deep, but the top of the depth chart has some potential to keep making noise. Oshie’s sample is smaller than others, but he has some room to slow down his FPPG and still maintain fantasy relevance.

Andrei Svechnikov, W, Carolina Hurricanes (7.8% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.60; post-Xmas FPPG: 3.53; Difference: 1.93

Night and day. Svechnikov was a ghost prior to waking up right around the break. He’s been a beast since then, when healthy. Currently on the sidelines with an upper-body injury, let’s hope Svechnikov is back soon so as to not lose the momentum here.

Jake DeBrusk, W, Boston Bruins (42.9% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.04; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.59; Difference: 1.55

A very quiet start to the season has likely seen DeBrusk dropped in many leagues. He’s not taking off thanks to playing with David Pastrnak, in fact, quite the opposite. DeBrusk has 14 points in the past 14 games while spending minimal time on the with the Bruins catalyst.

Matthew Tkachuk, W, Florida Panthers (0.2% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.71; post-Xmas FPPG: 3.08; Difference: 1.37

Kirill Kaprizov, W, Minnesota Wild (1.2% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.18; post-Xmas FPPG: 3.54; Difference: 1.36

Nazem Kadri, C, Calgary Flames (57.7% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.48; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.56; Difference: 1.08

Gustav Nyquist, C/W, Nashville Predators (67.7% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.41; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.46; Difference: 1.05

Just a note that this might be a sustainable boost for Nyquist in the fantasy department, as his ice time is up a full two minutes per game from prior to the break (17:04 versus 19:03). He remains at the top of the Predators depth chart alongside Filip Forsberg and Ryan O’Reilly.

Brock Faber, D, Minnesota Wild (61.7% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.62; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.64; Difference: 1.02

Jonathan Drouin, W, Colorado Avalanche (84.2% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.03; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.04; Difference: 1.01

Sam Reinhart, C, Florida Panthers (0.6% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.76; post-Xmas FPPG: 3.75; Difference: 0.99

If this moment in time isn’t the peak for Reinhart’s season, we’ve got some scary good months ahead. Forget his blazing start to the campaign or setting his new career-high for goals in a season this week, look at the spike in his production during the 13 games post-Christmas! If you hadn’t been exploring selling high on him already, you’ve got to consider it at his current red-hot pace. His shooting percentage since the break is 32%!

Vince Dunn, D, Seattle Kraken (12.3% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.80; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.77; Difference: 0.97

Rickard Rakell, W, Pittsburgh Penguins (49.7% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.06; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.02; Difference: 0.96

Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes (19.4% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.37; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.31; Difference: 0.94

Sebastian Aho, C, Carolina Hurricanes (2.2% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.08; post-Xmas FPPG: 3.02; Difference: 0.94

Blake Coleman, C, Calgary Flames (28.8% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.83; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.76; Difference: 0.93

Another shooting percentage aberration here that won’t last. Coleman has deposited a goal on more than one in three of his shots during the past 12 games since the holiday (35 percent).

Joel Farabee, W, Philadelphia Flyers (53.6% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.71; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.57; Difference: 0.86

Jonathan Huberdeau, C, Calgary Flames (50.2% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.02; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.87; Difference: 0.85

What’s this? Eleven games of solid production from Huberdeau? I mean, we aren’t writing home about him scoring 1.87 FPPG for our fantasy teams, but that’s definitely above the threshold needed to be in fantasy lineups. We likely owe Yegor Sharangovich a hat tip here for settling down the Flames top line with Huberdeau and Elias Lindholm.

Warren Foegele, W, Edmonton Oilers (97.8% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.11; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.95; Difference: 0.84

Josh Manson, D, Colorado Avalanche (93.4% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.47; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.27; Difference: 0.80

Sam Bennett, C, Florida Panthers (58.7% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.29; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.05; Difference: 0.76

Elias Pettersson, C/W, Vancouver Canucks (0.1% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.67; post-Xmas FPPG: 3.40; Difference: 0.73

Matt Roy, D, Los Angeles Kings (44.9% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.67; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.39; Difference: 0.72

Jake Bean, D, Columbus Blue Jackets (99.6% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.01; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.73; Difference: 0.72

Charlie Coyle, C, Boston Bruins (44.1% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.70; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.41; Difference: 0.71

Zach Hyman, W, Edmonton Oilers (3.5% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.53; post-Xmas FPPG: 3.20; Difference: 0.67

Yegor Sharangovich, C/W, Calgary Flames (73.5% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.50; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.17; Difference: 0.67

Turn for the worst

Josh Norris, C, Ottawa Senators (29.1% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.06; post-Xmas FPPG: 0.96; Difference: -1.10

With one point in nine games, it doesn’t get much colder than Norris. He still shares the ice in the top six, so this shouldn’t last forever. In fact, I’d give him consideration for a pickup in the leagues where he is available.

Brock Boeser, W, Vancouver Canucks (4.3% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.43; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.43; Difference: -1.00

This is a showcase for shooting percentage regression, as Boeser was 24 percent prior to Christmas and is now a more reasonable 12% since. You still have a valuable player on your hands, as this is probably as low as the valleys will sink. And despite the lack of fantasy points, he still has eight points in 12 games since the break.

Moritz Seider, D, Detroit Red Wings (0.7% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.50; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.56; Difference: -0.94

Is the strain of carrying the defense too much? Maybe. Seider only has one point since the holidays but is pressed into playing even more minutes (22:08 versus 23:29). He is too good not to bounce back soon.

Travis Sanheim, D, Philadelphia Flyers (32.8% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.12; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.19; Difference: -0.93

As mentioned already this week, the blocked shots have disappeared from Sanheim’s on-ice stat profile recently. His ice time has also plummeted from 25:14 before Christmas to 21:50 in the past 14 games. He’s just not an option for fantasy anymore.

Josh Morrissey, D, Winnipeg Jets (0.9% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.31; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.38; Difference: -0.93

John Tavares, C, Toronto Maple Leafs (1.9% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.17; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.25; Difference: -0.92

Evander Kane, W, Edmonton Oilers (22.9% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.15; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.24; Difference: -0.91

Anze Kopitar, C, Los Angeles Kings (9.9% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.33; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.43; Difference: -0.90

As goes Kopitar, so go the Kings. It’s unclear whether the chicken or egg came first here — the chicken being Kopitar’s slump and the egg being the Kings overall downturn. For the sake of the team and our fantasy squads, both things need to pull out of their current tailspin. Luckily, the Kings have (finally) started spinning the depth chart around looking for a spark after remaining committed to the previous lines for a bit too long. We should see some positive improvements soon. Of note, Kopitar played Monday’s game with Adrian Kempe and Pierre-Luc Dubois as linemates (and they dominated shot attempts), so we could see some new fantasy-relevant names (Dubois) when the worm does turn.

Jakob Chychrun, D, Ottawa Senators (2.6% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.31; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.45; Difference: -0.86

Andrei Kuzmenko, W, Vancouver Canucks (39.9% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.29; post-Xmas FPPG: 0.45; Difference: -0.84

Believe it or not, these stats include Monday night’s games in which Kuzmenko had two assists. Those, of course, were his first points since Dec. 23. There is now way he should still be rostered in 40% of leagues.

Bryan Rust, W, Pittsburgh Penguins (45.4% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.14; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.34; Difference: -0.80

Auston Matthews, C, Toronto Maple Leafs (0.1% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 3.72; post-Xmas FPPG: 2.96; Difference: -0.76

Tom Wilson, W, Washington Capitals (58.5% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.97; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.21; Difference: -0.76

Kirill Marchenko, W, Columbus Blue Jackets (40.0% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.74; post-Xmas FPPG: 0.99; Difference: -0.75

Brock Nelson, C, New York Islanders (19.1% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.21; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.51; Difference: -0.70

Jaccob Slavin, D, Carolina Hurricanes (47.6% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 1.74; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.04; Difference: -0.70

Steven Stamkos, C, Tampa Bay Lightning (0.5% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.41; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.72; Difference: -0.69

Gabriel Vilardi, C, Winnipeg Jets (44.8% available)
Pre-Xmas FPPG: 2.10; post-Xmas FPPG: 1.43; Difference: -0.67