Sinner vs. Medvedev: Who will win the title?
A first-time Australian Open champion will be named on Sunday after the men’s final (3:30 a.m. ET; ESPN and ESPN+). Will it be three-time finalist Daniil Medvedev? Or will Jannik Sinner win his first Grand Slam title?
Our experts make their predictions.
What can Sinner do to defeat Medvedev?
Brad Gilbert: Sinner needs to continue to dominate the center of the court and continue his accurate wide serving in both courts, setting up lots of easy serve-plus-one shots, which have been very effective all tournament.
Bill Connelly: While Sinner has won three in a row against Medvedev, all three were close — two went three sets, and the other featured a pair of tiebreakers. So the little things will matter significantly.
In his three wins over Medvedev, for instance, Sinner saved 75% of break points compared to 51% in the losses. That, and his improvement against Medvedev’s second serve — he won 64% of Medvedev’s second-serve points in their Tour Finals meeting — were the biggest differences. If he can pounce on Medvedev’s second serve and win a majority of overall break points, he’s in great shape. (You’re in great shape in any match where you do that, come to think of it …)
D’Arcy Maine: Since this is his first major final, Sinner’s nerves will certainly be high. We saw him get tight in the third set against Novak Djokovic when he was trying to close out the match, so he will need to try to remain as calm and composed as possible. Easier said than done, to be sure.
Even though he’s known for his endurance, Medvedev is coming into the final having played five sets in both his semifinal and quarterfinal matches, so his energy level — especially compared to Sinner who has dropped just one set in Melbourne — could still be a weak spot. If Sinner comes out like he did against Djokovic on Friday — taking a staggering two-set lead in just 73 minutes — it’s hard to think Medvedev will physically be up for the challenge to stop him. A fast start, followed by continued aggression and keeping his focus, could be what Sinner needs to win his first major trophy.
Jake Michaels: There’s no need to change a winning formula, and I daresay that will be the mentality for Sinner and his camp heading into his maiden Slam final. Throughout the tournament, Sinner has served well, played tremendous defensive tennis, kept the unforced errors low and lifted his game in the clutch moments. If he’s able to continue checking all these boxes, it’s a recipe for success; just ask 10-time champion Djokovic. And if Sinner gets off to a fast start, the finish line might well come quickly.
Matt Walsh: Strike early and quickly. It was successful against Djokovic, and you would think it’d be successful against Medvedev, who has played two five-setters and two four-setters already this tournament for a total of 20 hours, 33 minutes on court. Sinner on the other hand? 14 hours, 44 minutes. He’ll be undeniably fresher than his opponent, and you can only wonder — as strong as Medvedev is mentally — whether Medvedev can sustain himself for another marathon effort.
Sinner, too, needs to keep up the pressure in his service games. He has saved 26 of 28 (93%) break point opportunities in this tournament, and keeping up this level will win him a first Slam title.
What can Medvedev do to defeat Sinner?
Gilbert: The $64,000 question is: How will Medvedev be physically after back-to-back grueling five-setters and three overall during the tournament? Normally he likes to play long points with lots of variety. With a very accurate serve, winning lots of free points will be crucial for him.
Connelly: Grind. Fitness and best-of-five situations have been problems for Sinner in the past — he’s 1-6 all-time against top-20 opponents in five-setters, and he has played four four-hour matches in his career, losing all four.
Obviously if Sinner’s recent development is permanent, then old results don’t matter all that much, but if there’s one thing we know about Medvedev, it’s that he has the legs. He has already won two four-hour matches in this very tournament. You have to knock him out; otherwise he’s going to outlast you. Sinner’s game might be too much for anyone right now, but the longer the rallies, the longer the games and the longer this match goes, the more the edge shifts toward Medvedev.
Maine: While it seems unlikely, based on the focus he has shown throughout the tournament, Sinner could arrive at the final experiencing a bit of an emotional hangover, having defeated the ultimate Goliath in Djokovic just two days prior.
If that’s the case, Medvedev needs to rely on his own major final experience and exploit a slow start from Sinner as much as he can. But, more realistically, Medvedev needs to just keep fighting until the very last point. While Medvedev has been on court almost six hours more than Sinner throughout the fortnight, his stamina and a scrappy fight-back mentality have been his bread-and-butter this tournament. Even when trailing two-sets-to-love, a position he has been in twice in the tournament, Medvedev never panicked, and he said those wins have given him confidence entering the final.
No one has found a way to push Sinner to five sets in Melbourne, but if anyone can do it, it’s Medvedev. And, as Bill Connelly mentioned, that scenario would certainly favor Medvedev.
Michaels: Win quickly! Only once in the past 25 years has someone reached a major final after playing more minutes through their first six matches than Medvedev. Meanwhile, Sinner is far fresher, playing 14 hours, 44 minutes. The longer the match lasts, the more it favors Sinner, so Medvedev must take chances early and try to establish a lead.
Walsh: It almost seems counterintuitive to say “be on court as long as possible” but that’s exactly what Medvedev is good at, and what Sinner hasn’t faced. Sinner’s run to the final has been a breeze relative to that of Medvedev, so putting some pressure on the Italian player to grind through service games might disrupt his rhythm.
Medvedev has been excellent in clutch situations; he has won five of his six tiebreaks this tournament, including two against Alexander Zverev in their semifinal while facing elimination. Medvedev can extend rallies — if he can get in Sinner’s head, it could be the edge Medvedev needs.
Who will win?
Gilbert: I think at the moment, Sinner is the big favorite based on how much tennis Medvedev has had to play, even though Medvedev has a 6-3 head-to-head lead.
Connelly: This just feels like Sinner’s time. He’s 26-3 since the US Open, and he has won three of four against Djokovic, two straight against Carlos Alcaraz and three straight against Medvedev. The longer this match goes, the more it might start to favor Medvedev, but I just think Sinner’s game is too good right now. He takes it in four sets. Maybe three.
Maine: While Sinner’s run to the final has been nearly flawless, and in many ways this title feels like it’s his to win, Medvedev has the edge in terms of experience and mental strength and that will be the difference on Sunday. He knows what it takes to win a major final — and all of the emotions that go into playing with such a title on the line — and he’s proven he can fight his way back for the victory, no matter how seemingly insurmountable the deficit. Medvedev in five sets.
Michaels: I hate to say it, but I think Sinner wins this one comfortably. The Italian player’s stunning performance against Djokovic in the semifinals rightly has him as the overwhelming favorite for the title, and I’m not sure Medvedev has the legs to outlast him. The past three meetings between the pair have gone the way of Sinner, and I’d be shocked if that streak didn’t continue.
Walsh: The only reservation I have about saying Sinner here is: Does he think he has climbed the mountain before the real peak? Defeating Djokovic in the semi must be a huge emotional drain — even if he wouldn’t admit it — and getting up for a first Grand Slam final will be an effort. Medvedev? He has been here before, twice in fact, and knows what heartbreak at Rod Laver Arena looks and feels like. Sinner in straight sets, or Medvedev in five.
