Our Super Bowl mega-preview: Bold predictions, MVP picks, quarterback matchup, X factors, halftime show

February 10, 2024 ndowd

Super Bowl LVIII kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, with the San Francisco 49ers facing the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs. This is a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, after the 2019 season, in which the Chiefs beat the 49ers 31-20.

This is Kansas City’s fourth appearance in the big game in five years. The last time the 49ers won the Super Bowl was after the 1994 season in Super Bowl XXIX. The 49ers entered the playoffs as the NFC’s No. 1 seed, while the Chiefs were the AFC’s No. 3 seed.

Our NFL team has you covered with everything you’d ever want to know for 49ers-Chiefs, including team previews, bold predictions and game picks. We also provide betting advice from our sports betting experts, game-plan breakdowns from our analysts, and in-depth statistics from the ESPN Stats & Information team. We look at the two quarterbacks, coaches, positional advantages and some X factors as well. We even preview the officiating, halftime show, injury report and top Super Bowl MVP candidates.

It’s all here in a handy one-stop cheat sheet. Let’s dive in, starting with an overview of the exciting matchup.

Previewing 49ers vs. Chiefs

When: Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Television: CBS
Depth charts: 49ers | Chiefs

Sunday brings us a matchup of the NFL‘s most consistently dominant teams over the past five seasons, each with something to accomplish with a victory.

A win for the Chiefs would confirm them as a dynasty. The list of teams to win three Super Bowls in five years isn’t long. The mid-1970s “Steel Curtain” Steelers. The mid-1990s Cowboys as built by Jimmy Johnson. The Tom Brady-and-Bill Belichick Patriots managed to pull it off twice in two different decades. That’s it. A victory would put the Chiefs among the greatest five-year runs in league history, full stop.

The 49ers might feel like they would be the dynasty if a few things had broken their way. Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan aren’t going anywhere, but a win would dramatically impact their stories. Purdy would go from being Mr. Irrelevant and a quarterback carried by his skill position players to the guy who beat the most talented quarterback to ever live in a Super Bowl. Shanahan can’t go back in time and hold on to those two leads his teams blew in the Super Bowl, but winning one as a head coach would rewrite his legacy.

Oh, and Taylor Swift will be watching, too. Five months ago, the season began with a Chiefs loss. Will it end with one? — Bill Barnwell, senior NFL writer

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Meet the teams

Coach: Kyle Shanahan

This is Shanahan’s seventh season as the 49ers’ coach and his second Super Bowl appearance, the last one coming four years ago vs. the Chiefs. If the 49ers win, Shanahan will join his father, Mike, as a Super Bowl-winning head coach. The Shanahans would be the first father-son head-coaching duo to win a title in the history of the four major men’s pro sports.

How’d they get here?

The Niners rolled through the regular season, racking up 12 wins with a point differential of plus-193, third best in the NFL. They were so dominant in the conference that they wrapped up the NFC’s No. 1 seed in Week 17. For most of the season, San Francisco faced questions about how it would fare if it needed to deliver in close and late situations. As it turned out, the Niners were saving their best for last in those moments.

Quarterback Brock Purdy engineered a game-winning drive in the rain against the Packers in the divisional round and the Niners erased a 17-point second-half deficit against the Lions in the NFC Championship Game to earn a rematch against the Chiefs and a chance to avenge their loss to them in Super Bowl LIV. — Nick Wagoner, 49ers reporter

Coach: Andy Reid

Reid is in his 11th season as the coach of the Chiefs and is fourth on the NFL’s all-time head-coaching wins list (283). He is seeking his third Super Bowl title in his fifth Super Bowl appearance. If the Chiefs win, he would be the fifth coach to win at least three Super Bowls, joining Bill Belichick (6), Chuck Noll (4), Bill Walsh (3) and Joe Gibbs (3).

How’d they get here?

Not the way they have before. The Chiefs, at 11-6, lost more regular-season games than in any other season with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Mahomes had the worst statistical season of his career in many categories, and the Chiefs were not among the league leaders in points as usual. Instead, they finished 15th in scoring (21.8 PPG). Their defense carried the Chiefs for much of the season and they wound up second in points allowed (17.3 per game).

After beating the Dolphins 26-7 at Arrowhead Stadium in the wild-card round, the Chiefs had to play on the road for the divisional round for the first time since the 2015 season, or before they drafted Mahomes. But the Chiefs beat the Bills 27-24 in Buffalo and then the Ravens 17-10 in Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game. — Adam Teicher, Chiefs reporter

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Marcus Spears discusses Andy Reid’s legacy and how it will be defined going forward.

QB breakdown

Purdy was the 262nd and final pick in the 2022 draft and could become the lowest-drafted starting quarterback to win the Super Bowl (excluding Kurt Warner, who was undrafted). In his career (including playoffs), Purdy has a 21-5 (.808) record. He is the third-youngest starting quarterback in Super Bowl history (24) — only Dan Marino and Ben Roethlisberger were younger.

Strength: Purdy excels at attacking the middle of the field. The volume is there, certainly — 56% of his passes are between the numbers (third most among QBR qualifying quarterbacks) and 14% are between the hashes (most). But the efficiency is there as well. He ranks first in QBR (75) when throwing between the numbers and second (94) between the hashes — interestingly, behind only Mahomes.

He leads all quarterbacks in total EPA on passes between the hashes, too. All of this is somewhat expected given that Purdy plays in Shanahan’s offense, but the 49ers are where they are in part because he can execute when throwing to that part of the field.

Weakness: Purdy has only a 61 QBR against zone coverage, which ranks 12th among QBR-qualifying quarterbacks. For his numbers, that’s a weakness. By contrast, his QBR against man coverage is 90. The good news for the 49ers is that the Chiefs are the fifth-heaviest man coverage team in the NFL (51% man), and opponents can’t really play that much zone against them anyway. If they do, 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey will have a field day, because running back receptions skyrocket against zone coverage. — Seth Walder, analytics writer

Mahomes has a career record of 88-25 (.779). He is 3-0 against the 49ers, including the Chiefs’ win in Super Bowl LIV. In those games, Mahomes has averaged 341 passing yards and the Chiefs have averaged 37.7 points, their third most against any single opponent with him as their starting QB.

He is seeking his third Super Bowl win in his seventh season, something only Tom Brady and Troy Aikman have accomplished. Mahomes could also become the first player across the four major men’s pro sports with three championships and two league MVPs within his first seven seasons since Larry Bird (1979-86).

Strength: When a quarterback drops back to pass, there are three potential play types that can unfold: a pass, a sack or a scramble. It’s the first type that typically gets all the glory (and that’s all reflected into the arcane passer rating, too) but it’s types two and three where Mahomes separates himself.

He refuses to take a sack, with just a 3.7% sack rate, and has generated the second-most scramble EPA (35.4) this season only behind the Bills’ Josh Allen. In fact, on plays that resulted in a sack or scramble, Mahomes’ QBR was an 84 — again, second behind only Allen. Joshua Dobbs ranked third in the category with a 25, which goes to show how much Mahomes and Allen are in a league of their own in this area.

Weakness: Mahomes’ completion percentage over expectation this season (postseason included) is negative-1.1%, which ranks 23rd out of 30 QBR-qualifying quarterbacks, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Some of that is absolutely on the receivers, who have a 7.3% drop rate (using completions plus drops as a denominator), second worst in the NFL and a league-low 28 catch score (per ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics). But accuracy has never been Mahomes’ dominant trait, because regardless of his receivers, he has never posted a completion percentage over expectation above 1% in a single season. — Walder

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Biggest questions

Do you expect 49ers CB Charvarius Ward to follow Chiefs WR Rashee Rice?

Probably not. The 49ers have occasionally deployed Ward to cover other teams’ top wideouts, most notably against the Seahawks’ DK Metcalf. But they largely prefer to play zone coverage and have been far more successful sticking to those zone principles than playing man. In the regular season, quarterbacks had a QBR of 43.9 against San Francisco’s zone coverage (the seventh lowest in the NFL), but that number jumped to 59.8 when the Niners played man coverage (14th).

What’s more, Mahomes had a 70.4 QBR with 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions against man coverage and a 64.8 QBR with six touchdowns and seven interceptions against zone. That’s not to say the Niners won’t mix coverages, including match options, but they’re unlikely to drastically change their approach here to cover Rice. — Wagoner

How is this Chiefs team different from the other Reid-Mahomes teams that have made the Super Bowl?

The Chiefs now lead with defense, while in the past they leaned on their offense to get it done. They had an early lead in the AFC Championship Game against the Ravens, and they were content to lean on their defense to hold on, which it did by creating three turnovers (two in the fourth quarter). The Chiefs were second in the league in sacks during the regular season, and they don’t have to rely on Chris Jones alone to get them. George Karlaftis tied with Jones for the team lead in sacks during the regular season with 10.5 and has 2.5 in the playoffs.

The secondary has several versatile players, allowing coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to choose from a variety of coverages. Cornerback L’Jarius Sneed has for much of the season followed the opponent’s top wide receiver and usually done a nice job. He didn’t yield his first touchdown pass of the season until the divisional round win over the Bills. Mahomes, as a result, is content to play a complementary game. He completed 30 passes against the Ravens but for just 241 yards. That was enough to get the job done. — Teicher

Keys to a 49ers win

Positional advantage: Linebacker

Niners linebackers Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw will play a critical role Sunday, given the Chiefs’ offensive tendencies during their postseason run. Kansas City has averaged 127.3 yards rushing in three playoff wins, with lead back Isiah Pacheco checking in at 84.7 yards per game. Warner and Greenlaw can use their ability to quickly key and diagnose versus the run game, playing downhill to fill gaps or pursuing to cut off the ball on the perimeter. Plus, both linebackers can impact the passing game by getting to depth and closing second-level throwing windows versus Mahomes. — Matt Bowen, NFL analyst

49ers’ X factor: Dre Greenlaw, LB

The 49ers are the No. 1 defense on passes in the middle of the field, and they’re especially strong on intermediate passes up the middle. On passes up the middle between 6 and 15 air yards, the 49ers allowed a 53% catch rate, compared with an NFL average of 67%. Warner is an important part of this pass coverage, but his partner might be the more important player for this game because he’s more often covering opposing tight ends. If you look at targets to opposing tight ends this season, 42 of them had Greenlaw in coverage, compared with 28 for Warner, and no other 49ers defender was above 12.

When Mahomes is looking for Travis Kelce, Greenlaw is the player most likely to be in coverage. For the 2023 season, including the playoffs, Warner is the player who had the better coverage DVOA. However, both Greenlaw and Warner have gotten better over the second half of the season. Before the 49ers’ Week 9 bye, Greenlaw allowed 24% DVOA in coverage while Warner was at minus-1%, or nearly average. Since Week 10, Greenlaw has allowed a minus-6% DVOA in coverage while Warner is at minus-28%. (Negative numbers are better for defenders, since they represent less offensive success.) — Aaron Schatz, NFL analyst

Rookie to watch: Ji’Ayir Brown, S

Brown was the 49ers’ first selection in the 2023 draft way down in Round 3. Despite some up and down moments this season, he finished second in tackles (10) in the NFC Championship Game. The rookie safety will be a key part of a 49ers secondary that’s attempting to slow down Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense, but I want to see more from him in coverage. Brown did have two interceptions this season, though. — Jordan Reid, NFL draft analyst

Keys to a Chiefs win

Positional advantage: Tight end

Including the playoffs, the 49ers’ defense has played zone coverage on 67.1% of opponent dropbacks, mixing both single-high and split-safety schemes. The Chiefs can create open voids in the coverage for Kelce, who has caught 23 of 27 targets for 262 yards in the playoffs, with 38.2% of those yards coming after the catch. And when the 49ers do play man coverage, especially on third downs, Kelce has a matchup advantage in the route tree versus safety Tashaun Gipson Sr. — Bowen

Chiefs’ X factor: L’Jarius Sneed, CB

The Chiefs ranked fifth in DVOA against No. 1 receivers and allowed a league-low (opponent-adjusted) 49.4 yards per game to those receivers during the regular season, largely thanks to Sneed. Looking at DVOA for pass coverage based on catches allowed compared to all snaps in coverage, Sneed finished 15th among cornerbacks (minimum 300 coverage snaps) with a minus-22% DVOA allowed.

But what’s more impressive for this game is how Sneed has improved over the course of the season. In the first nine weeks, he allowed a minus-10% DVOA. In the next nine weeks, he allowed a minus-40% DVOA. And in the three playoff games, Sneed has allowed a minus-50% DVOA in coverage, which would have ranked second for the year.

Part of the reason Sneed is the X factor is that we don’t know whom the Chiefs consider to be the 49ers’ most important target. Will they put Sneed on Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel, or move him between the two? The receiver Sneed covers might be surprisingly quiet, and the one he does not might be surprisingly productive. — Schatz

Rookie to watch: Rashee Rice, WR

The Kansas City passing game was stale as the season hit the midway mark, but the rookie rejuvenated the offense while becoming the top wide receiver target for Mahomes. Rice grabbed 79 passes for 938 yards and seven touchdowns while starting only eight games. In the team’s three playoff games, he has added 20 catches for 223 yards and a score while keeping safeties from keying on Kelce.

For the Chiefs to beat the 49ers, Rice will have to step up with Steve Wilks’ defense spying and eyeing Kelce on third downs. Rice’s sharp route running and dependable hands will make him a go-to target for Mahomes early and often. — Matt Miller, NFL draft analyst

ESPN’s FPI has the 49ers winning 59.4% of the simulations. And they are favored to win by an average of 3.1 points.
This matchup is a showdown between the top team in FPI, the 49ers (10.1), and the Chiefs (7.4) in fifth. The 49ers are No. 1 in offense (Chiefs rank seventh), and Kansas City is No. 5 in defense (San Francisco is seventh).
The Chiefs started the season No. 1 in FPI in the preseason, while the 49ers were No. 5.
In the preseason, the 49ers had the second-best chance to make the Super Bowl (22.4%) and the Chiefs had the third best (20.6%). And Kansas City was given a 12.7% chance to win it to San Francisco’s 11.7%.

Who wins the game?

We asked 64 experts to weigh in on who will win. The Chiefs were picked by 49 of them (76.6%), while the 49ers claimed 15 votes (23.4%). The most common predicted final scores were 27-24 (picked by eight of our experts) and 27-21 (seven).

Read more: ESPN staff predictions

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Of the 64 experts who weighed in, 38 (59.3%) picked Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP. And Mahomes (+130), Purdy (+225) McCaffrey (+450) are the ESPN BET betting favorites. We asked a few experts to explain their MVP prediction.

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: McCaffrey. The 49ers RB is not only the premier player at his position, but he’s a big-game producer. In five playoff games with San Francisco, he has six total touchdowns and averages 112 yards. So, even an off day keeps him in the MVP conversation. And he won’t be off.

Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Mahomes. I think the 49ers will have more success against the Chiefs’ defense than Baltimore did, which means this should be more of a shootout — and I’m always going to pick Mahomes to make one more play than the other guy in a Super Bowl shootout.

Jason Reid, Andscape senior writer: Mahomes. As the best player in the league, Mahomes elevated his game to another level this postseason — and will keep it going on Sunday.

Seth Wickersham, NFL writer: Warner. Nobody is shutting down Kansas City’s offense without great linebacker play. So I have the league’s best linebacker winning MVP.

Lindsey Thiry, national NFL writer: Mahomes. A two-time Super Bowl champion and MVP, Mahomes has a proven track record of playing up to and beyond his own standard of greatness on the biggest stage. After navigating a challenging season, which included evident growing pains with his receiving corps, watch for Mahomes to extend his streak of six straight postseason games without an interception and turn in a performance that includes his signature ability to extend plays.

Stats to know

Team stats: 49ers | Chiefs

49ers

The 49ers have led for 22.9% of time through their two games this postseason, the second-lowest percentage of time leading in the postseason entering Super Bowl (1994 Chargers).
The Niners are the fourth team to have both a 4,000-yard passer (Purdy) and four players with 1,000 scrimmage yards (McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Samuel and Kittle) in a season, but they are the first of them to make the Super Bowl.
Purdy has a 91 QBR in the second half of games this postseason, a dramatic increase from a 59 QBR in the first half. The 49ers have averaged 22.0 points per game in the second half and just 7.0 in the first half.
McCaffrey led the NFL in rushing yards during the regular season (1,459). He’s the first rushing champion to reach the Super Bowl since 2005 (Shaun Alexander), and could become the first to win the Super Bowl since 1998 (Terrell Davis).
Rookie kicker Jake Moody has missed four kicks in his past three games (3 of 6 FG, 9 of 10 extra points). He missed just three kicks in first 16 games of the season (21-24 FG, 58-58 XP).
This season, including the playoffs, the Niners have averaged 7.1 yards per play with Samuel on the field, compared with 5.5 yards per play when he’s off the field.

Chiefs

Mahomes has 14 playoff wins as starting quarterback, tied with Peyton Manning, John Elway and Terry Bradshaw for the third most by a starting quarterback since 1950 — trailing Brady (35) and Joe Montana (16).
Kelce has tallied eight postseason games with 100-plus receiving yards, tied with Jerry Rice for most in NFL history.
The Chiefs’ receivers had the highest drop percentage in the NFL during the regular season at 6.2%. Their drop percentage during this postseason is just 3.3% — which would have tied for ninth best during the regular season.
Kansas City has a 13-2 record (including playoffs) when it holds opponents to 20 points or fewer. The Chiefs are 1-4 when opponents score at least 21 points.
The Chiefs are 9-3 this season when Taylor Swift is in attendance. Kelce averages 78.8 receiving yards per game with Swift in attendance. Swift will be performing on tour in Tokyo from Wednesday to Saturday.

Bold predictions

McCaffrey will finish with 20 or more rushing attempts and over 120 rushing yards. The Chiefs’ defensive front has contained opposing running backs during their postseason run, but they were vulnerable to the run during the regular season (NFL-worst 27% run stop win rate). In both of Shanahan’s previous Super Bowls, he was criticized for abandoning the running game with his playcalling. With McCaffrey, I don’t see that happening. — Eric Moody, NFL analyst

Mahomes will not be sacked or turn over the ball. There has been a definite improvement in these two areas since the playoffs started. Mahomes was intercepted at least once in all but five regular-season games he played in but has yet to be picked off in the playoffs. And after being sacked 13 times in five games in December, Mahomes has gone down twice in three playoff games since. This will go a long way in assuring a Chiefs win. — Mike Tannenbaum, NFL analyst

A running back will take over the game and win MVP. Of the 58 Super Bowl MVPs (one was shared), only seven were running backs — the most recent Terrell Davis in 1998. If the Chiefs win, Mahomes would be the MVP favorite, but could Pacheco steal it away? With the Chiefs running more near the goal line as of late, Mahomes has failed to reach two passing TDs in six of his past eight games, whereas Pacheco has at least one TD in seven consecutive outings. If the Niners win, there’s a good chance McCaffrey (25 TDs in 18 games this season) will have had a big game. — Mike Clay, NFL analyst

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Who is in, and who is out?

Injury reports: Chiefs | 49ers

The Chiefs will be thin on their defensive line with Charles Omenihu ruled out after tearing an ACL in the AFC Championship Game. They lost another defensive lineman, Derrick Nnadi, for the rest of the season earlier in the playoffs. Rookie Felix Anudike-Uzomah, the Chiefs’ first-round draft pick, will need to play some high-quality snaps. He has been a healthy scratch in recent weeks. The Chiefs are holding out hope that All-Pro guard Joe Thuney can play, but it’s unlikely. He injured his pectoral muscle earlier in the playoffs. Nick Allegretti filled in well in the AFC Championship Game. — Teicher

All things considered, the 49ers enter this week about as healthy as a team could be at this point in the season. Tight end George Kittle didn’t practice last week because of a toe issue, but he said Friday he has no concerns about it and he was no listed on the injury report the team released last week. Yes, the Niners will be without starting strong safety Talanoa Hufanga, who tore the ACL in his right knee in November, but they have most of their starters rested and ready to go for the biggest game of the year. — Wagoner

What to know about the officiating

Referee Bill Vinovich is leading his second Super Bowl crew in the past five years, and his third overall. His appearance extends a remarkable recovery from an aortic dissection that nearly killed him in 2007 and shelved his on-field officiating career for six seasons. He returned full time in 2013. His regular-season crews have annually thrown the fewest flags in the NFL for most of the past decade, although his 2023 crew tied for the seventh fewest.

Vinovich was the lead referee for Super Bowl LIV, which also matched the Chiefs and 49ers. That crew threw a total of 11 flags, two of which were declined. Of the remaining nine, five went against the 49ers and four against the Chiefs. — Kevin Seifert, Vikings reporter

How to bet Super Bowl LVIII

Current line from ESPN BET Sportsbook: 49ers -1.5, O/U 47.5

The Chiefs look to be the fourth straight underdog to cover in the Super Bowl, including upset wins by last season’s Chiefs and the 2020 Buccaneers. No quarterback has been better as an underdog than Mahomes, who is 10-1-1 against the spread and 9-3 outright as an underdog, the best marks by any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (minimum six games). Mahomes will be an underdog in three straight games for only the second time in his career, along with his first three career starts.

The 49ers are the second team to reach the Super Bowl without covering in a playoff game, along with the 2007 Patriots, who lost outright as 12.5-point favorites to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. San Francisco was the only team to be favored in every game this season.

Favorites are 36-21 outright and 27-28-2 ATS in the Super Bowl. Overs are 27-28-1 excluding Super Bowl I. The current total of 47.5 would be the lowest since Super Bowl 50. — Mackenzie Kraemer, researcher

Who is playing the halftime show?

Eight-time Grammy Award winner Usher will be performing at halftime of Super Bowl LVIII. Usher, 44, springboarded into superstardom with “Confessions,” which sold more than 10 million units in the United States and earned him eight nominations at the 2005 Grammys, winning him three. He lost Album of the Year to Ray Charles’ final album, “Genius Loves Company,” released two months after the legend died.

“Confessions” ranks among the best-selling music projects of all time and launched No. 1 hits such as “Yeah!” with Ludacris and Lil Jon, “Burn” and “Confessions Part II.” His special edition version included the smooth hit “My Boo,” a duet with Alicia Keys. Next year will mark the 20th anniversary of the album.

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