Weekend preview: Figuring out this season is one big headache

There is an annual debate in men’s college basketball about the value of momentum. Is it real? Does it really matter if it is? Some believe that a streak of four, five, six, seven wins in a row, etc., has no bearing on whether that team will win its next game. They’re all separate events. Others believe it can fuel a team, especially entering the NCAA tournament.

Real or not, it seems easy to squander. In recent weeks, we’ve watched good teams fail to follow up on strong victories or extend winning streaks in a puzzling stretch.

Houston had won five in a row and topped most metrics as the No.1 team in college basketball before it suffered a double-digit loss to Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse last Saturday. Bill Self’s team celebrated that victory, then made only three shots from beyond the arc in an overtime loss at rival Kansas State this week. Alabama had won four in a row, a stretch that started with a home win over Auburn, before Nate Oats’ squad gave up 99 points in a loss to the Tigers in a rematch Wednesday. BYU beat Texas last weekend but didn’t show up during a loss to Oklahoma on Tuesday.

The North Carolina Tar Heels‘ loss to Clemson in Chapel Hill was the most surprising outcome of the week. The Tar Heels had dominated rival Duke last Saturday with a 93-point effort. Armando Bacot even said the ACC title “runs through me.” The Heels looked like a different team against the Tigers, however. After that loss, the veteran leader suggested the team had struggled to handle success.

Maybe momentum is fake, but the heartbreaking losses that have followed some big wins have been very real.

All odds from ESPN Bet.

---

No. 13 Baylor (17-5, 6-3 Big 12) at No. 4 Kansas (18-5, 6-4)

Saturday, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN

Kansas has emerged from a rough start in league play a few times under Bill Self. Even last year, the Jayhawks started their conference stretch 6-4 before they finished 7-1 and won the Big 12 regular season title. That could happen again this year, but the path will be more difficult. They still have road games against Texas Tech, Oklahoma, the Bears and Houston, in that order. For a team that’s 1-4 in its last five road games, this final chapter of the season could cost Kansas in the Big 12 race, as well as a top seed on Selection Sunday.

That’s why Saturday’s opportunity against the Bears, who lead the nation in 3-point shooting (41.2%), is significant. A loss to RayJ Dennis (13.8 PPG, 6.4 APG, 39% from the 3-point line), Ja’Kobe Walter” (14.2 PPG) and Co. would be a missed opportunity at home, just before that treacherous run to the finish line. The Jayhawks’ opponents in their last four losses connected on 43% of their 3-point attempts, a good sign for Scott Drew’s team, too.

Medcalf’s pick: Kansas, 84-80; Against the spread: Baylor (+4.5)

---

No. 5 Houston (20-3, 7-3 Big 12) at Cincinnati (15-7, 4-5)

Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Per Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology, the Big 12 has nine NCAA tournament-worthy teams. Every coach in America believes their league is a “gauntlet.” But it’s true in the Big 12. There are no easy wins, but there are numerous opportunities to strengthen a résumé.

Cincinnati is listed in Lunardi’s “first four out” category. But a win over a Houston team with top-seed aspirations could change Cincinnati’s fortunes. Can they do it? The Bearcats are No. 2 in the league with opponents connecting on just 46.1% of their shots inside the arc. Since Jan. 1, Houston has connected on 46.8% of its 2-pointers, a sub-300 mark nationally, per Barttorvik.com. But the limited offensive firepower of John Newman (10.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG) and Co. will be difficult to overcome against the top defense in the country.

Medcalf’s pick: Houston, 70-63; Against the spread: Houston (-2.5)

---

Gonzaga (17-6, 8-2 WCC) at No. 17 Kentucky (16-6, 6-4)

Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, CBS

Entering the season, this game looked like the perfect showcase for Super Bowl weekend. Gonzaga and Kentucky are perennial powers in men’s college basketball. And had both lived up to preseason projections, the winner of this matchup might have had a strong case for a top seed and a favorable region in the NCAA tournament.

Instead, this is now a co between a pair of teams that stumbled into February after falling short of those preseason projections. For a Kentucky team that’s lost two of its last three games, it’s the defense that’s missed the mark. The Wildcats have a collection of pro prospects and a sub-100 ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. They’re essentially the Harlem Globetrotters with a rim-protecting allergy on defense.

The Zags? They need this win to secure at-large consideration. Seriously. The Bulldogs have an 0-5 record against Quad I opponents. But, there is cause for some hope: recent injuries mean their opponent may not be playing at full strength.

Medcalf’s pick: Kentucky, 90-86 Against the spread: Gonzaga (+4.5)

---

Saturday, 1:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+

Ziggy Reid, a transfer from Merrimack, is proof a player can dramatically improve during a collegiate career. Three years ago, the Penguins’ fifth-year standout connected on just 29% of his 3-point attempts as a sophomore at Merrimack. This season, the 6-foot-6 forward is top-50 in the country with a 45% success rate from beyond the arc.

Lately, he’s gone cold (5-for-16 in his last four games entering the week), though. If he can’t find a rhythm, Youngstown State could fall to a Phoenix team that’s made 39% of its 3-point attempts in league play this season. With a win, Green Bay could take sole possession of first place. With a loss, Youngstown State could sit atop the standings.

Medcalf’s pick: Youngstown State, 76-70 Against the spread: Green Bay (+6.5)

---

SEASON TOTALS

Medcalf’s picks straight up: 28-19

Against the spread: 21-26