Weekend preview: Everyone's chasing UConn and Purdue
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Myron Medcalf, ESPN Staff Writer
This is usually the time within the college basketball season when the word parity is frequently used.
As March approaches and a collection of imperfect teams aim to hit their strides before the postseason, it often appears as if there is a crowd of good teams at the top but not necessarily a team that has separated itself. While the numerous losses by top 10 teams in road games against unranked opponents this season have supported the case for parity, they do not tell the full story.
The story of college basketball today? A pack of teams are chasing UConn and Purdue, two squads that have distanced themselves from the field. Those two are inching toward greatness.
So the question is not which team will emerge in March, but can any squad stop Purdue and UConn, or are they destined to battle each other in the national title game? The Boilermakers have Zach Edey, who will likely win a second consecutive Wooden Award, and wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Marquette, Illinois, Alabama and Arizona. UConn hasn’t lost a game since Dec. 20.
The Huskies and Boilermakers aren’t in that parity group. They’ve been the most dominant forces in the sport. Will anyone catch them?
All odds from ESPN BET.
Saturday, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN
After the 75-63 home win over Ole Miss, John Calipari said his Kentucky team is built for the postseason, citing all of its strengths: an elite offensive crew (No. 7 in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom), a low turnover rate and NBA-level talent who can quickly shift a game.
He’s right. But NCAA tournament history suggests a team that struggles to this degree defensively (107th in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom) might not fare well in the postseason. Three of the Final Four teams a year ago were top 35 in defensive efficiency on Selection Sunday, the outlier being a Miami team that was 132nd but with a top-15 offense.
Kentucky will have to beat talented teams to reach its goal. That includes Johni Broome (16.0 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 2.4 BPG) and the Tigers, who can match Kentucky’s offensive output (18 games with 80 or more points) and haven’t lost a home game this season.
Medcalf’s pick: Auburn 88-83; Against the spread: Kentucky (+5.5)
Saturday, 3 p.m. ET, Fox
With Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro on the floor together, Marquette has produced 110.4 points per 100 possessions and held its opponents to 94.7 points per 100 possessions, according to EvanMiya.com. Kolek, who won Big East player of the year honors last season, is averaging 16.1 PPG, 7.4 APG, 1.7 SPG and 41% shooting from beyond the arc — that’s even better than he did a year ago. Marquette hasn’t lost since Jan. 10 in this battle between the top teams in the Big East standings.
But we’ve reached a point in the season, again, where UConn looks like a team that might not lose. Seriously. The Huskies (59.2% inside the arc) are on a 13-game winning streak, seven of those victories coming by double digits. Last year, the Huskies didn’t hit their stride until mid-February. But they’re ahead of schedule and better than that squad in multiple metrics. And, Tristen Newton (15.2 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 5.8 APG) looks like an All-American.
Medcalf’s pick: UConn 77-72; Against the spread: Marquette (+5.5)
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET, ESPN
At this point, the Big 12 title has become a fading dream for a Kansas squad that’s lost five of its past six road games and still has three more (including at Baylor and Houston) on its conference slate. This is the same Kansas team that’s hoping to secure a top seed in the NCAA tournament.
But all of this is secondary to the team’s ongoing injury concerns. Kevin McCullar Jr. (19.5 PPG) has missed back-to-back games due to a knee injury and Dajuan Harris Jr. is playing through an ankle injury he suffered last weekend against Baylor.
Will Kansas limp into the NCAA tournament? Will the road woes continue in Norman? Maybe, maybe not.
Medcalf’s pick: Kansas 72-68; Against the spread: Kansas (-2.5)
Sunday, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN
When Florida Atlantic’s top contributors returned for another season after a dazzling Final Four trip, college basketball had another fairy-tale to follow. Turns out this season has been more like a turbulent sitcom for Johnell Davis (18.6 PPG, 47% from beyond the arc) & Co., who claim a win over Arizona but losses to Bryant, Florida Gulf Coast, Charlotte and UAB.
South Florida, which was picked to finish ninth in the league’s preseason poll, is the real story in the American Athletic Conference. First-year coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, who led Kennesaw State to the NCAA tournament last year, entered the week with the first-place team in the AAC — the team second-place FAU has to catch. Chris Youngblood (15.0 PPG) leads a squad that’s made 39% of its 3-point attempts in league play.
Medcalf’s pick: Florida Atlantic 77-71; Against the spread: Unavailable at time of publication
SEASON TOTALS
Medcalf’s picks straight up: 30-21
Against the spread: 25-26
