Road to Frozen Four: Projecting the NCAA tournament field
With the men’s hockey season winding down, the selection of the NCAA tournament field is less than a month away. While some spots in the 16-team field are secure, there is a bigger and more unstable bubble of teams than usual scrapping for a chance to embark on the road to the Frozen Four.
The NCAA field includes the winners of the six conference tournaments — Atlantic, Big Ten, CCHA, ECAC, Hockey East and NCHC — and 10 at-large teams based on the PairWise rankings. Conference tournaments will begin March 8, with the finals scheduled for March 23.
Pairings for the NCAA tournament will be announced March 24, with regionals to be held March 28-31 in Springfield, Massachusetts; Sioux Falls, South Dakota; Providence, Rhode Island; and Maryland Heights, Missouri. The Frozen Four will be held April 11-13 at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota.
Here’s a look at where the NCAA field stands, broken into tiers based on how secure each team’s spot is, with teams listed in order of the PairWise rankings as of Feb. 22. Each team’s résumé includes an outlook by ESPN college hockey analyst Colby Cohen.
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Safe and sound
Boston College
Record: 23-5-1, 15-3-1 Hockey East
Numbers to know: The Eagles are third in scoring offense (4.34) and fourth in scoring defense (2.24) while playing one of the toughest schedules in the country. BC also has the nation’s top penalty kill unit and is third in power play percentage.
Cohen’s take: BC has separated itself as the top team in the country, led by the freshman trio of Will Smith, Ryan Leonard and Gabe Perreault. Between those three and sophomore Cutter Gauthier, who can score from anywhere on the ice, no team plays with more speed, skill and puck possession than BC. Plus the Eagles are backstopped by future NHL goalie Jacob Fowler. To me, this is the favorite to win it all in St. Paul.
Boston University
Record: 20-8-2, 14-4-2 Hockey East
Numbers to know: BU’s 17-year-old phenom Macklin Celebrini, the youngest player in college hockey and the consensus No. 1 pick in the 2024 NHL draft, is second in the country (and first among freshmen) with 23 goals.
Cohen’s take: The entire bottom half of the NHL is “slackin’ for Macklin” and for good reason: Celebrini has been sensational, leading BU to another 20-win season. Don’t forget about sophomore defenseman Lane Hutson, who is having another big year offensively. Like BC, the Terriers love to play with speed and possess the puck. They have been a top-five team all season and there is no reason they can’t get back to the Frozen Four for the second year in a row under Jay Pandolfo.
North Dakota
Record: 20-8-2, 11-6-1 NCHC
Numbers to know: North Dakota went 21 straight games without a regulation loss before being swept last weekend at Colorado College.
Cohen’s take: North Dakota entered this season with its sights set on the Frozen Four, and other than its games against Colorado College, the Fighting Hawks have looked the part. Jackson Blake leads the way with 40 points in 30 games and can overwhelm any team with his lightning speed, but the heaviness NoDak defends with is what should propel the Hawks to St. Paul.
Michigan State
Record: 20-7-3, 14-4-2 Big Ten
Numbers to know: The Spartans, who are seeking their first Big Ten title since the league was formed in 2013, are 7-1-1 away from their home rink since the holiday break.
Cohen’s take: It’s great to see the Spartans back in contention at the national level. They have been consistent all season, losing a back-to-back series only once (at BC), and are on their way to a Big Ten regular-season title. To me, they are a bit of a wild card in terms of how far they will go in the NCAAs — we could see them in St. Paul or it could be one and done — but when you have defenders like Artyom Levshunov and goaltending like Trey Augustine, the sky’s the limit.
Denver
Record: 20-8-2, 11-6-1 NCHC
Numbers to know: With a balanced attack that features 12 players with at least seven goals, Denver is the highest scoring team in the country with a whopping 4.83 goals per game. However, the Pioneers are 43rd in scoring defense (3.17).
Cohen’s take: Never sleep on a David Carle-coached team because he knows how to get the most out of his group come tournament time. This roster is full of talent — Jack Devine, Massimo Rizzo, Shai and Zeev Buium — the list goes on and on for one of the deeper teams in the field. The Pios have a hard road ahead as they sit fourth in the NCHC, but I expect them to play better down the stretch.
Wisconsin
Record: 22-8-2, 13-6-1 Big Ten
Numbers to know: Senior Kyle McClellan is fifth in the country with a 1.96 goals-against average, third with a .929 save percentage and has an NCAA-high six shutouts. Wisconsin’s penalty kill is second in the country (.881).
Cohen’s take: What a difference Mike Hastings has made in his first year at Wisconsin. After a major shakeup this offseason, the Badgers have been one of the more consistent teams all season. They’ve slipped a little in February, but expect Hastings’ heavy defensive-minded hockey to kick in as they push for the playoffs. I’m not sure this is their year to lift the big trophy, but they are going to play hard and with a lot of structure.
Maine
Record: 18-8-2, 10-7-1 Hockey East
Numbers to know: Maine has been in the top 10 for 13 straight weeks, a first for the program since the 2006-07 season. The Black Bears have been, well, bears at home, going 9-1-2 at Alfond Arena; they are 7-7 on the road.
Cohen’s take: No team has had a bigger turnaround this season than the Black Bears. They have been a top team in the rankings all season, slipping only during their current three-game slide. Brothers Josh and Bradly Nadeau carry the offensive load, but I’m not sure the Black Bears are deep enough for this to be their year. Big props to coach Ben Barr for breathing life back into Maine; I expect to see the Bears in the NCAA tournament field for years to come.
Quinnipiac
Record: 22-7-2, 15-3-1 ECAC
Numbers to know: The defending national champs lead the country in scoring margin, checking in second in scoring defense (1.94) and fourth in scoring offense (4.13). Junior Collin Graf, a star in last year’s title run, leads the attack with 19 goals and 23 assists.
Cohen’s take: It’s another dominant season for the Bobcats. They won’t surprise me anymore: This program brings it year in and year out. They have some big-time players in Graf, Jacob Quillan and Sam Lipkin, who all know how to win. Rand Pecknold and his staff adjusted on the fly last year in the national championship game — a 3-2 win over Minnesota — and they deserve a ton of credit. I see Quinnipiac as the team outside the top five that is most likely to make it to St. Paul.
Minnesota
Record: 19-8-5, 12-6-4 Big Ten
Numbers to know: Jimmy Snuggerud, a first-round pick of the St. Louis Blues in 2022, is back after Minnesota’s Frozen Four run last season. He leads the Gophers (and is eighth nationally) with 19 goals.
Cohen’s take: Losing the likes of Brock Faber and Matthew Knies is not easy, but the Gophers constantly reload with talent. Oliver Moore and Sam Rinzel have gotten better and better, showing why they were first-round NHL draft picks, and are surrounded by guys who have “been there, done that” in the NCAA tournament. I think Minnesota ends up a No. 2 or No. 3 seed and will be a tough out for anyone, but it can’t look past the big weekend finale series against Michigan, which is fighting for its life.
In the field — for now
Western Michigan
Record: 17-10-1, 8-10 NCHC
Key games: Feb. 23 and 24 at St. Cloud State; March 1 and 2 at North Dakota
Numbers to know: Junior Dylan Wendt (0.75) and senior Sam Colangelo (0.68) give Western Michigan a pair of players in the top 10 nationally in goals per game.
Cohen’s take: The past couple of weeks Western hasn’t had the results it would want, losing six of its past 10 games, but three of those losses came in overtime. The Broncos are getting career years from Wendt and Luke Grainger, and some of their transfers, such as Colangelo and Ethan Phillips, have made great impacts. The next two weeks will show just how good they are, as they have two games each with St. Cloud State and North Dakota, two teams ahead of them in the NCHC standings.
Colorado College
Record: 18-9-1, 12-6 NCHC
Key games: Feb. 23 and 24 at Omaha; March 8 vs. Denver; March 9 at Denver
Numbers to know: The Tigers are coming off an impressive weekend sweep of North Dakota by a combined 13-3 score that is part of a 5-1 run against projected tournament teams (NoDak, Western Michigan and St. Cloud State).
Cohen’s take: Kris Mayotte and his team is one of the best turnaround stories this season. Coming off a second massive sweep against North Dakota, CC has won eight of its past nine games. Sophomore Noah Laba leads the way offensively with 16 goals, seven of which were game-winners, and the Tigers have gotten strong goaltending from sophomore Kaidan Mbereko. CC is looking for its first tournament berth since 2011.
Providence
Record: 16-10-3, 9-7-3 Hockey East
Key games: March 7 vs. BU; March 8 vs. Northeastern
Numbers to know: The Friars have taken 334 more shots than their opponents (995-661); only Quinnipiac (+363) has a greater margin among teams projected to make the NCAA field.
Cohen’s take: Another solid season for Providence, which always seems to have a heavy identity that comes from its forecheck. The Friars aren’t exactly dynamic offensively, but they score by committee and are always responsible away from the puck. February hasn’t been great to them, but they have a rubber match with BU ahead, providing a great opportunity to climb the PairWise rankings.
St. Cloud State
Record: 14-9-5, 10-4-4 NCHC
Key games: Feb. 23 and 24 vs. Western Michigan; March 1 and 2 vs. Denver
Numbers to know: The Huskies are well positioned with four big home games on tap after compiling a 7-2-2 record on the road since November.
Cohen’s take: St. Cloud State is an older team, with some Frozen Four experience from Zach Okabe and Veeti Miettinen, so if it is able to run the table against Western and Denver in their final series of the season, they’ll roll into NCHC playoffs feeling like they can beat anyone.
Cornell
Record: 16-4-5, 11-4-3 ECAC
Key game: Feb. 23 at Clarkson
Numbers to know: After posting a 1.72 GAA last season, junior Ian Shane has been even better this season with a 1.52 mark, the best in the country.
Cohen’s take: The Big Red haven’t lost in regulation since Dec. 2 and their only loss since then came in a shootout. In a win over BU earlier in the season at Madison Square Garden, Cornell locked things down defensively and really made life in the neutral zone difficult for the high flying Terriers offense. Senior forward Gabriel Seger leads the way offensively with 30 points in 25 games and a plus-21 rating. Even if Cornell wins out in the regular season and falls in the ECAC tournament final, it will be right on the cutline.
One-bid league champions
Holy Cross (Atlantic champion)
Record: 18-11-4, 13-9-3
The winner of the Atlantic Hockey tournament will get an automatic berth, with Holy Cross getting the nod for now as the league’s highest ranked team (No. 23 in PairWise). RIT (No. 25) is not far behind, with Sacred Heart sitting third in the league standings.
Minnesota State (CCHA champion)
Record: 15-11-4, 11-7-2
Another automatic qualifier slot will go to the CCHA tournament champion. The conference is wide open with Bemidji State, Minnesota State, Bowling Green and St. Thomas all within two points in the league standings. The Mavericks fill the CCHA spot here based on their No. 28 PairWise ranking.
On the bubble
UMass
Record: 16-9-3, 9-7-2 Hockey East
Key games: Feb. 23 vs. New Hampshire, Feb. 24 at New Hampshire, March 8 and 9 at Maine
Michigan
Record: 15-12-3, 8-10-1 Big Ten
Key games: March 1 and 2 at Minnesota
New Hampshire
Record: 16-11-1, 9-8-1 Hockey East
Key games: Feb. 23 at UMass, Feb. 24 vs. UMass, March 1 vs. Boston College, March 3 at Boston College
Cornell is the last at-large team in the field as things stand, but the PairWise rankings are very tight and there is still plenty of time for things to change. While the Big Red have no more regular-season games against top-30 teams, UMass, Michigan and New Hampshire all have multiple chances to gain valuable PairWise capital before and during their conference tournaments.
Of course, any of these teams could spare themselves some drama on selection day by winning their league’s automatic bid. Conversely, the bubble would shrink if an upset winner emerges from the conference tournaments as a bid stealer.
Cohen’s take: I don’t think UMass‘ ranking is an indication of the way Greg Carvel’s team has played. The Minutemen just had a tough weekend against BC, where they were on the wrong side of some questionable calls. Defenseman Scott Morrow is a special talent and his ability to dominate in all three zones is as good as it gets. The Minutemen play with good structure and when they manage the puck, they can play with anyone. This is a team I would hate to play in Round 1 of the tournament. … It’s been an inconsistent season for Michigan, which is loaded with talent. Rutger McGroarty is one of my favorite players in college hockey; when he goes, so do the Wolverines. They have six players who average more than a point a game, so goals will never be an issue, but Michigan needs to tighten things up defensively ahead of the Minnesota series and the Big Ten tournament. … New Hampshire is coming off an impressive sweep of rival Maine and has home-and-home sets with both UMass and BC, so the Wildcats can’t be counted out. Alex Gagne has been rock solid on the blue line, with 12 blocks and two assists in the sweep of Maine.
